Geography and Environmental Studies

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The Impact of Financial Inclusion on Banking Financial Performance, Banking Financial Stability and Economic Growth of Ethiopia
(Addis Abeba University, 2025-12-01) Mohammed Jatoro; Andualem Goshu
Financial inclusion (FI) conceived as increasing the availability, usage, and quality of formal financial services, is essential to sound monetary and fiscal policy. Yet, despite its immense importance, Ethiopia’s banking sector remains under explored in the literature on FI’s impact across performance, stability, and economic growth. Thus, this dissertation seeks to accomplish four objectives. First, the study constructed a multidimensional FI index, combining ten traditional and five digital indicators employing a two-stage Principal Component Analysis to capture the availability, accessibility and usage of formal financial services from 2015 to 2023. Second, the study examines the impact of traditional and digital dimensions of inclusion on bank performance using a nonlinear two-step system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) on panel data of 17 commercial banks, uncovering that while traditional FI increase returns, digital channels with high start-up costs depress short-term profitability. Third, employing linear and nonlinear two-step system GMM the study investigates the nexus between FI and bank stability, revealing an inverted-U relationship. The FI improves stability up to a threshold (30.3), beyond which risks from cost overload and adverse selection emerge. Finally, the study employs a Nonlinear ARDL framework on annual macro data from 1991–2023 to analyze asymmetric effects of inclusion on economic growth. The results show a clearly asymmetric relationship, with advantages for economic growth from positive shocks in FI outweighing the disadvantages of negative shocks. In addition, the study used Toda-Yamamoto nonlinear causality tests to confirm bidirectional causation between inclusion and growth. Collectively, these studies demonstrate that a carefully managed through supportive regulation, targeted initiatives, and ongoing data-driven monitoring of FI can significantly strengthen Ethiopia’s banking sector (both performance and stability) and catalyze inclusive economic growth.
Livelihood Strategies Among Female Informal Vendors: A Case of Wereda 04, Akaki Kality Sub-City, Addis Ababa
(Addis Ababa University, 2025-09-01) Mulugeta Markos; Tebarek Lika
Rapid urbanization in Ethiopia, particularly in Addis Ababa, is reshaping cities and creating both opportunities and challenges. One of the most affected groups is unemployed and low-income female informal vendors (FIVs), who rely on street vending as a key livelihood strategy. This study explores the experiences of FIVs in Akaki Kality Sub-City, using the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF) and a mixed-methods approach. Data were collected from 160 vendor surveys, eight key informant interviews, and four focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS and Excel, while qualitative insights were thematically assessed. Findings reveal that informal vending is a deliberate income strategy, not merely a fallback. While many vendors report improved incomes, others face stagnation, illustrating the sector's instability. A major challenge is lack of legal recognition, with most vendors operating without permits making them vulnerable to harassment, eviction, and fines. Poor infrastructure also forces many to work in unsafe, unregulated spaces. Gender-based violence, including verbal and physical abuse, is common, especially in poorly lit areas. Financial access remains limited: few women obtain formal loans, relying instead on informal savings and networks due to fear of debt, lack of collateral, and distrust of institutions. Business training is rare but highly desired. While some vendors benefit from social networks, others are excluded due to income instability. Institutional trust is low, with many vendors feeling neglected by authorities. The study concludes that informal vending is a resilient yet constrained livelihood. To support FIVs, integrated interventions are needed legal recognition, financial inclusion, safer infrastructure, and protection from violence, capacity building, and improved institutional engagement to foster sustainable and dignified livelihoods in the urban informal economy Keywords: Female Informal Vendors, Livelihood Strategies, Public Space, Urban Informality, Sustainable Livelihood Framework, Addis Ababa.
Spatiotemporal Trends of Climate Variability, Meteorological and Agricultural Droughts, and Their Effect on Land Surface Phenology in the Upper Gelana Watershed, Northeastern Highlands of Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2025-06-01) Sileshi Tadesse; Asnake Mekuriaw
Climate change remains a pressing global challenge, significantly impacting socio-ecological systems and the livelihoods of millions, particularly in developing countries. In Ethiopia, unpredictable climate patterns and extreme droughts have severely threatened rain-fed agriculture, leaving many reliant on food assistance. As a result, understanding local climate variability, drought characteristics, and their impacts is crucial for devising appropriate adaptation strategies to safeguard smallholder farmers' livelihoods. This study explores climate variability and trends, meteorological and agricultural droughts, spatial and temporal variations in land surface phenology (LSP), and farmers' perceptions and adaptation strategies in response to climate variability and changeacross the lower weina dega (LWD), upper weina dega (UWD), and dega agroecological zones (AEZs) of the Upper Gelana watershed in the northeastern highlands of Ethiopia. The first part of the study focusses on spatiotemporal climate variability and change across the AEZs of the data-scarce Upper Gelana watershed, where rain-fed agriculture is the primary livelihood source. We evaluated the performance of two widely used high-resolution satellite precipitation datasets, Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite and ground-based observations (TAMSAT) and Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), using various categorical and continuous validation statistics in R. The spatiotemporal variability was analyzed using TAMSAT rainfall and gridded temperature data from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute (EMI) with coefficient of variation (CV), precipitation concentration index (PCI), and standardized rainfall anomaly (SRA). Trends were computed using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Sen's slope estimator, and innovative trend analysis (ITA). The findings reveal considerable inter-annual rainfall variability, with a significant positive trend in kiremt (main rainy season) rainfall and slight declines in belg (short rainy season) rainfall. Decadal increases in kiremt rainfall ranged from 96.1 to 104.8 mm, while belg rainfall declined by 14.0 to 16.4 mm across AEZs. The minimum and maximum annual temperatures showed significant decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, in LWD and UWD, while changes in dega were insignificant. The second part investigates meteorological and agricultural droughts across the AEZs. Meteorological drought analysis was conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with TAMSAT data, while agricultural drought was examined using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Land Surface Temperature (LST), Evapotranspiration (ET), and Potential Evapotranspiration (PET). Drought characteristics such as intensity, severity, and duration were analyzed using run theory in R, and spatial correlation analysis assessed the relationship between meteorological and agricultural droughts. The findings indicate seasonal meteorological drought variability, with kiremt droughts occurring more frequently than belg season droughts between 1991 and 2021. Meteorological droughts were detected in kiremt during 1991, 1993, 2002, 2009, and 2015. Agricultural droughts, identified using ETDI and VHI, were more frequent during belg in LWD and UWD (2002, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2021) and in dega (2008, 2012, 2013, and 2015). Agricultural droughts were also observed during kiremt in 2002, 2008, and 2009 across all AEZs. Pixel-wise correlation analysis revealed a statistically significant positive relationship between meteorological and agricultural drought indices during both the belg and kiremt seasons, indicating the potential translation of climatic stress to agricultural systems. To assess the impact of climate change on vegetation ecosystems, we examined spatiotemporal changes in LSP across AEZs and their association with climate variability and drought events from 2001 to 2021. MODIS NDVI (250-meter resolution) was used to compute phenological metrics, including start of the season (SOS), end of the season (EOS), and length of the growing season (LOS), as well as key ecosystem condition indicators such as base value, peak value, and amplitude using MATLAB based TIMESAT software automated using Command Prompt (CMD) and R. Land use was classified for 2001 and 2021 using the Random Forest algorithm, and areas with changes were excluded from LSP trend detection to avoid misinterpretation. The relationship between LSP changes and climate variables was assessed using pixel-wise pearson correlation and partial correlation analyses. The results indicate that the dega AEZ experiences earlier SOS and longer LOS compared to LWD and UWD. A delay in SOS and EOS was observed in 71.3% and 82% of the study area, respectively, while LOS increased in nearly half of the area. The high spatial variability in the peak and amplitude values suggests ecosystem condition variations across AEZs. SOS exhibited a positive correlation with maximum temperature and a negative correlation with belg rainfall and drought indices across large portions of the study area. Shorter LOS was associated with rising temperatures, whereas increased rainfall extended LOS. The findings also indicate positive correlations between drought indices and EOS in more than half of the study area. Partial correlation analysis suggests that the negative impact of belg season meteorological drought on LSP is more pronounced when translated into agricultural drought. Lastly, we explored farmers perceptions of climate change, its impacts, and the determinants influencing their adaptation choices using a multivariate probit model. The findings indicate that farmers widely perceive rising temperatures, declining rainfall, and increased droughts, partially aligning with statistical analyses. Adaptation strategies vary across AEZs: soil and water conservation dominate in dega, while irrigation, crop variety changes, and planting adjustments are prevalent in LWD and UWD. Education, extension services, and access to climate information significantly influence adaptation choices. Overall,the findings of the study revealed local scale spatiotemporal patterns of climate variability, drought and their impact on LSP changes. Combined with the findings on perceived impacts and existing adaptation practices, it will helpto raise awareness and contribute to the development of AEZ-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on rain-fed agricultural dependent communities. Keywords: climate variability, agricultural drought, meteorological drought, land surface phenology, remote sensing, perception, adaptation strategies
Analysis of Urban Expansion through GIS and Remote Sensing in Gullele Sub City of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2025-06-01) Zerihun Abebe; Teferi Mekonnen
Urban expansion in Ethiopia is a significant phenomenon driven by rapid population growth, rural-urban migration, and socio-economic transformations. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Gullele Sub-city, Addis Ababa, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies from 1993 to 2023. The study utilizes multi-temporal satellite imagery and spatial analysis to map land-use/land-cover changes, identify urban sprawl patterns, and measure the accuracy of classifications over different time periods. Socio-economic data and demographic characteristics are integrated to explore the relationships between urbanization and its impacts on agriculture, natural resources, and infrastructure. The findings highlight significant land conversion from agricultural to urban uses, driven by population pressures and policy inefficiencies. The study showed that the proportion of built-up area increased from 47.32 % in 1993 to 53.37% in 2023 (growing by 6.05%); agricultural land areas experienced a decrease from 4.97% in 1993 to 2.28% (decreased by 2.69%); Forest areas showed increase from 29.59% in 1993 to 31.43% in 2023(expanded by 1.84%) and finally Shrub land shows decrease from 19.12 to 12.92% in 2023 (shrinking by 5.2%). This has led to challenges, including displacement, environmental degradation, and inadequate urban infrastructure. The research concludes the existence of substantial urban expansion that calls for evidence-based urban planning, improved land-use regulations, and the application of geospatial technologies for effective resource management. This work provides critical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in addressing the challenges of urban expansion and promoting sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas like Gullele Sub-city. Keywords: Urban expansion, GIS and Remote Sensing, Land use/Land cover, Built-up Area. Addis Ababa
Women’s Representation in Leadership Positions in Ethiopia: Analysis of Gender Equality in Higher Leadership Positions from 1991 – 2022
(Addis Ababa University, 2025-06-01) Zeynie Chekol; Kiya Gezahegne
Women's inclusion in higher leadership positions guarantees diverse perspectives and promotes gender equality, resulting in better decision-making, organizational performance and accelerating social change toward a more inclusive society. The primary goal of this PhD dissertation is to examine women's representation journey in higher leadership positions in Ethiopia over the last three decades. Within the broad scope of this research, the study addressed four specific objectives. The study has been led by a pragmatic philosophical paradigm to frame the research strategies and come up with workable remedies. Additionally, feminist and transformative theories were utilized as a foundational framework to inform the research objectives or overall investigation. Although this dissertation is more inclined towards qualitative research features, it has employed a mixed-methods approach considering the research subject required both qualitative and quantitative research data types and designs. The study utilized descriptive, explanatory, and phenomenological research designs based on the nature of the research questions. Meanwhile, data-gathering methods such as in-depth interviews, key informant interviews, and document analysis have been used to address the research objectives. The study's key informants and participants were chosen using the purposive sampling technique. This study produced a wide range of findings by employing all appropriate scientific procedures. Hence, according to the study's findings, women in Ethiopia have been underrepresented in higher-level leadership and decision-making positions over the past 30 years. Additionally, according to the findings of this study, Ethiopia's women-based policy frameworks are admirable, but an evaluation based on three key metrics reveals their insufficiency in terms of content-wise comprehensiveness, which has an impact on the promotion of women to leadership roles. The result of this study further identified socio-cultural, workplace, institutional, and women's personal challenges as the significant barriers to women in their efforts to advance to higher leadership positions. Finally, this study provided the lived experiences of five renowned Ethiopian women leaders and their lived experiences demonstrated that, although women face multifaceted impediments in their professional and family-related lives, they can overcome these obstacles through determination, consistency to their goals, continuous personal development, resilience, and hard work to achieve aspirations to ascend into higher leadership positions. To summarize, while women's existing representation in Ethiopia's higher leadership roles is admirable and encouraging, gender equality has yet to be attained. To achieve gender parity in this regard, the efforts of different stakeholders, including the government, women themselves, civil society organizations (CSOs), social institutions, and society in general, are fundamental. Furthermore, existing policies, strategies, and plans for women need to be revisited in order to improve women's representation in higher-level decision-making roles. In this regard, to bring practical solutions, subsequent future studies should be conducted by refining the theoretical, methodological, and conceptual scopes of this study, using this study as a springboard. Key words: Women, Leadership, Women empowerment, Higher leadership positions, women’s representation, Gender equality, Ethiopia
Spatio-Temporal Change of Urban Sprawl Pattern in Gambella Town
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2024-11-01) Goanar Jal Dup; Degefie Tibebe
Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) changes and urban sprawl, along with their drivers and impacts on socio-economic and environmental conditions, is essential for designing knowledge-based interventions that promote sustainable development. Gambella Town is a key area experiencing significant LULC changes and urban sprawl, driven by a range of interconnected factors. This study investigates these changes over the past 24 years (2000–2023) and identifies the main drivers and socio-economic and environmental impacts. Using multi-temporal Landsat satellite imagery and supervised image classification, along with a socio-economic survey of 277 respondents, the study classified land into six categories: Agricultural Land, Bush with Grass, Built-Up Area, Bare Land, Forest Land, and Water Bodies. The classification achieved high accuracy, with overall accuracies of 90%, 90%, and 89% for 2000, 2010, and 2023, respectively. The analysis reveals substantial LULC changes, notably the conversion of Bush with Grass into residential and commercial zones. Agricultural Land increased from 13.4% (634 ha) in 2000 to 36.9% (1,750 ha) in 2023, while Built-Up Areas expanded from 2% (93 ha) to 41.3% (1,956 ha). In contrast, Bush with Grass sharply declined from 71.1% (3,375 ha) to 13.7% (652 ha), and declines in Bare Land and Forest Land indicate a shift toward settlements and agriculture. Socio-economic analysis shows that rural-to-urban migration, natural population growth, and increased demand for jobs and services are the primary factors driving these changes. Urban sprawl has displaced residents, heightened infrastructure demands, and limited access to essential services. Environmentally, this expansion has led to habitat loss and biodiversity decline. These findings offer crucial insights for policymakers and planners aiming to mitigate urban sprawl challenges and advance sustainable development in Gambella Town. Keywords: LULC, Urban Sprawl, Remote Sensing, Landsat satellite imagery, Environmental Impact, and Sustainable Development.
The Role of Emerging Regional Innovation System (Ris) for Regional Competitiveness in Ethiopia: A Case of Hawassa
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-11-01) Kassahun Aman; Tegegne Gebre
In today’s globalized and knowledge-based economy, innovativeness is not merely a competitive advantage but a necessity for emerging economies such as Ethiopia. This study investigates the role of the Regional Innovation System (RIS) in promoting regional competitiveness, using Hawassa as a case study. It emphasizes the contributions of key innovation actors, regional innovation capacity, and policy frameworks. Grounded in the Quadruple Helix model and endogenous development theory, the study analyses how science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies contribute to an evolving innovation ecosystem. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining qualitative data from document reviews, key informant interviews, focus groups, and field observations with quantitative firm-level survey data. Thematic analysis was used to analyze qualitative data, while inferential analysis was employed for the quantitative data. Findings indicate that Ethiopia’s RIS is supported by STI policies that aim to foster an entrepreneurial culture, enhance R&D funding, and strengthen university-industry linkages. However, implementation is hampered by infrastructural limitations, weak coordination, and minimal R&D investment. Social enterprises and civil society actors also play a critical role in bridging gaps between higher education and labour market demands, thereby enhancing graduate employability. Although regional clusters such as Hawassa Industrial Park, Hawassa Industry Zone, and Yirgalem Agro-Industrial Park have made strides, they face challenges in achieving their intended innovation outcomes. Factors influencing firm-level innovation include location, access to resources, collaboration with universities, and internal R&D activities. The study concludes that overcoming structural barriers, reforming policies, and fostering inclusive institutional collaboration are essential for strengthening the Ethiopian innovation system. Universities— especially Hawassa University—and social enterprises must lead efforts to enhance capacity- building and promote sustainable regional innovation. Keywords: Regional Innovation System (RIS), Regional Competitiveness, STI Policies, Quadruple Helix, Industrial Clusters, Innovation, Economic Development
Socio-Economic Effects of Awash National Park on Residents of Awash Sebat Kilo Town
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-07-01) Eyasu Jorge; Teferi Mekonnen
National Parks used to be seen as just National Reserves for contemplation and conservation, but have been gradually considered as sites which to some extent may contribute to the development and enhancement of local communities, The existence of positive socioeconomic effects consequent on the establishment of National Parks are assumed such as revenues derived from tourism and brand driven identity, creation of local employment and aids for rural development projects (Mills, 2002). The main objective of this study was to examine the overall socio-economic effects of Awash National Park on the residents of Awash Sebat Kilo Town, with particular emphasis on its tourist attractions, social and economic impacts, and the role of key stakeholders. Awash National Park is one of nature based Recreationl sites in Ethiopia for its impressive Landscape and diversity of Fauna and Flora.The ANP has the Socio-economic Impacts on the development of Awash Sebat Kilo Town. The Park is Economically significant, because it diversifies the economy, increases income regeneration for Residents, increases local government revenue in the form of direct and indirect taxes,brings foreign exchange to a Country, improves production, increases GDP(Gross Domestic Product), creates employment opportunities for both skilled and unskilled workers and contributes to the development and expansion of various economic sectors and activities such as Agriculture. Awash Sebat Kilo Town is situated within Afar regional state,350 kilometers away from its Capital City(Samara) and 225 kilometers from Addis Ababa, the Capital of Ethiopia. Geographically, the town is bounded by 61500 to 63500 meters East and 991500 to 1024500 meters North. The study used purposive sampling techniques to select the town. Three kebeles of Awash Sebat Kilo Town, namely, Allalimo, Bank Sefer and Mariam Sefer, were purposively selected, while 98 representative sample household heads from the three kebeles were randomly selected. Data gathering tools such as questionnaire, interview, focus group discussion and site observation of the park were used. To fulfill the importance of the findings, a descriptive survey design was employed . The findings of the study revealed that large biodiversity of fauna and flora, exceptional variety of landscapes and active volcanic activities are the major tourist attractions of Awash National Park. Wider range of employment opportunities and expansion of social services and public infrastructure are the major positive benefits of Awash National Park for residents of Awash Sebat Kilo Town. However, frequent conflicts for resource competition, Increasing Cost of Living(inflation) and modification of indigenous culture are the negative side effects of the park on the residents of the town. The Major Roles to be played by Stakeholders So as to mitigate the Negative Effects of Awash National park on the Residents of Awash Sebat Kilo Town and to enhance Positive benefits of the park. Creating awareness, park protection, law enforcement and job diversification are the major roles to be played by stakeholders to mitigate the Park's negative effects and to enhance its positive benefits to the Residents. Keywords: Tourist, tourist attractions, local community, resource conflict, Awash National Park, Awash Sebat Kilo Town
Assessment of the Causes and Consequences of Soil Degradation in Layarmachiho Woreda, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-12-01) Abuye Tsehay; Asmamaw Legass
Soil degradation remains one of the most critical environmental challenges globally. This study aims to identify the primary causes and impacts of soil degradation in Lay Armachiho Woreda. To achieve this, both qualitative and quantitative research methods were employed. A total of 150 household heads were randomly selected from two kebeles using a simple random sampling technique. Additionally, four key informant development agents (DAs), model farmers, agricultural experts from the woreda, and kebele leaders were purposively selected for interviews. Data collection tools included structured and semi-structured questionnaires, direct observation, and in-person interviews. Secondary information was sourced from both published and unpublished materials such as journals, books, magazine, newspapers, and government documents. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including frequency tables and percentages, as well as narrative explanations. The findings indicate that overgrazing, population pressure, and intensive cultivation are the major contributors to soil degradation in the study area. A significant consequence is the depletion of soil nutrients, leading to reduced agricultural productivity. As a result, farmers are facing serious socio-economic difficulties. Despite these challenges, some farmers have adopted soil management techniques such as crop rotation, conservation tillage, fertilizer application, and contour farming. The study recommends that government bodies, development agents, and other stakeholders enhance community awareness regarding the causes and effects of soil degradation. Soil degradation poses a substantial threat not only to agricultural productivity but also to ecosystem stability and global food security. This review highlights the major natural and human-induced factors driving soil degradation, including deforestation, overgrazing, and unsustainable farming methods The impacts are widespread diminishing biodiversity, altering nutrient cycles, reducing crop yields,. To address these challenges, integrated soil management strategies are essential. Sustainable practices such as conservation agriculture, agro forestry, cover cropping, crop rotation, and the use of organic soil amendments offer potential solutions to restore soil health and ensure long-term productivity. Keyword Keywords: Causes of soil degradation, effects of soil degradation
Drought Incidence, Modeling and Prediction in Bilate River Watershed, Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-12-01) Ashenafi Burka; Woldeamlak Bewket
Drought poses extreme risks to semi-arid regions like Ethiopia's Central Rift Valley, which includes the Bilate River Watershed (BRW). This PhD research presents a comprehensive assessment of the dynamics of drought in the BR W using historical analysis, spatial observation, susceptibility modeling, and future climatic projections. Past meteorological droughts (1981-2019) were first explained with multiple indices (SPI, SPEI, RDI, eRDI, scPDSI) for seven stations. Correlation and Fleiss' kappa analyses revealed that SPI and SPEI at 6- and 9-month timescales performed best, identifying major droughts (e.g., 1984/85 , 199912000, 2002/3, 2009). Theory of Runs showed increased severity in the southern BRW and increased frequency in other areas. The Mann-Kendall tests confirmed a significant increasing trend in drought conditions at Hossana and Wulbareg station within the watershed. Satellite remote sensing (Google Earth Engine, MODIS) was utilized to analyze spatial drought patterns (2000-2022) using VCI, TCI, and VHI for the May-October period. The VHI identified 2002, 2009, 2015, and 2022 as years of severe drought with extensive coverage (up to 70% area), primarily affecting southern, central, and southwestern parts. Spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I) confirmed high drought clustering, especially in severe years, with frequency analysis identifying the southern BR W as being most vulnerable. Building upon the observed patterns, an integrated model for drought susceptibility was developed using geospatial technique and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on fifteen climatic, hydrological, soil, vegetation, topographic, water index, and socio-economic variables. AHP identified rainfall, temperature, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture as the major drivers. The model identified that 70.2% and 23.2% of the watershed fell in moderate and severe susceptibility categories, respectively, grouped together in the central and southern parts. ROC analysis validation (AVC= 0.701) showed adequate model performance. Then, using the SPEI index and bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations (SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5), drought projections for the twenty-first century (2015-2100) were produced. The frequency, intensity, and length of droughts increased dramatically during the 21st century, according to higher-level statistical calculations. This was especially true under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, with peak intensity predicted in the middle of the century (2045-2054). These changes suggest drier conditions will be emerging during the period from the mid-2060s to the late-2080s, alongside the potential enhancement of multi-year drought cycles and increased extremes. Power spectral analysis suggested the potential enhancement of multi-year drought cycles (3.75-7.5 years) under high emission scenario. EOF analysis showed high spatially coherent drought pattern alongside persistent secondary spatial contrast. Analysis of the return period indicated that SSP5-8.5 had more extremes and greater variability. The consistent identification of spatial vulnerabilities, the confirmation of historical trends in some stations, and the alarming future projections demand proactive, and spatially targeted drought risk management and adaptation strategies. Overall, this research presents multidimensional evidence and concludes that the BRW faces significantly intense drought risks, highlighting the need for immediate and focused efforts to enhance watershed resilience. Keywords: Drought Indices, Trend Analysis, GEE, Modeling, Spatial Autocorrelation, CMIP6 Projections, Bilate River Watershed, Rift Valley of Ethiopia
The Major Causes of Vehicle Traffic Congestion on Adisugebeya Round about to Minilik II Square Corridor in Addis Ababa
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-09-01) Biruk Getasetegne; Fekadu Gurmessa
This thesis is the analysis of traffic congestion in Addis Ababa with a particular emphasis on Addisu Gebeya Roundabout to Menelik II Square Corridor. Traffic congestion is one of many serious global problems of cities of both developed and developing countries. In most cities, especially in developing regions it results in massive delays, monetary losses, fuel wastage, and accidents. Due to poorly planned road networks and land use, and poor traffic management, it results into elongated traffic congestion. Due to the growth in population in Addis Ababa and the movement of people into urban areas coupled with an increase in car ownership and usage exacerbates the demand for road space and impact mobility. To achieve the goal of the study both qualitative and quantitative research methodologies have been used to analyze traffic flow problem. For a thorough and precise understanding of the problem data of traffic counting and traffic delay surveys were made.The findings of the study showed the worst time congestion in Addisu Gebeya Roundabout to Minllik II Square corridor is between 8 and 9 a.m. The main causes of traffic congestion on Addisu Gebeya Roundabout to Minilik II Square corridor areon street and illegal parking, poorly designed bus and taxi loading and unloading stops, Less public transport use and Rigid working hours of the employees and an inability to manage traffic flow. The corridor between Semen Mazegaja traffic light and Addisu Gebeya roundabout is very congested. The study area is affected by traffic congestion in terms of time waste, delayed mobility, psychological stress, inability to predict travel time, and fuel usage. The primary solutions to address traffic congestion in the Addisu Gebeya Roundabout to Minilik II Square corridor are control On-street and illegal parking, improving the standard of the bus and taxi stops, increased public transportation usage, and flexible working hours scheduling Keywords: Traffic congestion, urban mobility, Addis Ababa, parking management, public transport, traffic flow
Eucalyptus Plantations, Rural Livelihoods, and Gender Dimensions in Senan District, Northwest Ethiopia
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-06-01) Fasika Belay; Messay Mulugeta & Teferee Makonnen
The widespread expansion of eucalyptus plantations in Ethiopia's highlands represents a significant transformation of the agricultural landscape, leading to complex socioeconomic and environmental consequences. While economically appealing to smallholders, the conversion of cropland and its effects on rural livelihoods, food security, and gender equity are not fully understood. This dissertation investigates the socioeconomic implications of the rapid expansion of eucalyptus plantations in the Senan district of Northwest Ethiopia, where cropland conversion to eucalyptus has intensified in recent decades. Data were collected from 332 households (166 eucalyptus planters and 166 non-planters), supplemented by qualitative data from observations, interviews, and focus group discussions. Additionally, Landsat satellite images from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021 were utilized. Employing a mixed research approach, the study utilizes econometric and descriptive statistical techniques to analyze quantitative data complemented by thematic analysis for qualitative insights. Satellite imagery analysis reveals a significant land-use shift: cropland decreased from 58.4% to 38.1% between 2010 and 2021, while eucalyptus-dominated vegetation increased from 16.8% to 26.5%. Binary logit models identify key drivers of eucalyptus adoption, including household head age, land size, and savings, while factors like education, livestock ownership, and land fertility negatively influenced adoption. The findings show that eucalyptus ownership significantly impacts household income, livelihood assets, and food security. Households with eucalyptus plantations reported higher livelihood asset index scores across various categories, indicating positive contributions to overall well-being. Specifically, eucalyptus adopters experienced a 40.2% increase in household income (as determined by propensity score matching) and demonstrated better food security, with significantly higher Household Dietary Diversity Scores (5.28 vs. 4.73) and lower food insecurity rates (8.06 vs. 11.29 HFIAS). However, these benefits come with trade-offs: human capital indices are lower among eucalyptus-owning households, and women face disproportionate disempowerment. Women in households engaged in eucalyptus plantations are notably more disempowered than their counterparts in other households, highlighting a significant disparity. This disempowerment is rooted in systemic issues, including a lack of financial control, limited decision-making power, restricted access to credit, and diminished group participation. Addressing these barriers is crucial for enhancing women's empowerment. The dual nature of eucalyptus expansion is evident in xi these findings: it enhances livelihoods and food security but also poses risks to gender equity. To address these complexities, the dissertation concludes with policy recommendations for rural road improvement, eucalyptus zoning regulations, sustainable agroforestry practices, gender-inclusive income interventions (emphasizing high-interest savings accounts for rural women), and diversified livelihood strategies aimed at balancing economic gains with long-term resilience and social equity. Key words: Eucalyptus, Livelihoods, Food security, Women, Income
Women’s Representation in Leadership Positions in Ethiopia: Analysis of Gender Equality in Higher Leadership Positions from 1991 – 2022
(Addis Abeba Universty, 2025-06-01) Zeynie Chekol; Alemu Azmeraw(PhD), Mesfin Dessiye(PhD), Kiya Gezahegne(Phd), Filmon Hadaro(PhD),Hanna Tegegn(PhD)
Women's inclusion in higher leadership positions guarantees diverse perspectives and promotes gender equality, resulting in better decision-making, organizational performance and accelerating social change toward a more inclusive society. The primary goal of this PhD dissertation is to examine women's representation journey in higher leadership positions in Ethiopia over the last three decades. Within the broad scope of this research, the study addressed four specific objectives. The study has been led by a pragmatic philosophical paradigm to frame the research strategies and come up with workable remedies. Additionally, feminist and transformative theories were utilized as a foundational framework to inform the research objectives or overall investigation. Although this dissertation is more inclined towards qualitative research features, it has employed a mixed-methods approach considering the research subject required both qualitative and quantitative research data types and designs. The study utilized descriptive, explanatory, and phenomenological research designs based on the nature of the research questions. Meanwhile, data-gathering methods such as in-depth interviews, key informant interviews, and document analysis have been used to address the research objectives. The study's key informants and participants were chosen using the purposive sampling technique. This study produced a wide range of findings by employing all appropriate scientific procedures. Hence, according to the study's findings, women in Ethiopia have been underrepresented in higher-level leadership and decision-making positions over the past 30 years. Additionally, according to the findings of this study, Ethiopia's women-based policy frameworks are admirable, but an evaluation based on three key metrics reveals their insufficiency in terms of content-wise comprehensiveness, which has an impact on the promotion of women to leadership roles. The result of this study further identified socio-cultural, workplace, institutional, and women's personal challenges as the significant barriers to women in their efforts to advance to higher leadership positions. Finally, this study provided the lived experiences of five renowned Ethiopian women leaders and their lived experiences demonstrated that, although women face multifaceted impediments in their professional and family-related lives, they can overcome these obstacles through determination, consistency to their goals, continuous personal development, resilience, and hard work to achieve aspirations to ascend into higher leadership positions. To summarize, while women's existing representation in Ethiopia's higher leadership roles is admirable and encouraging, gender equality has yet to be attained. To achieve gender parity in this regard, the efforts of different stakeholders, including the government, women themselves, civil society organizations (CSOs), social institutions, and society in general, are fundamental. Furthermore, existing policies, strategies, and plans for women need to be revisited in order to improve women's representation in higher-level decision-making roles. In this regard, to bring practical solutions, subsequent future studies should be conducted by refining the theoretical, methodological, and conceptual scopes of this study, using this study as a springboard. Key words: Women, Leadership, Women empowerment, Higher leadership positions, women’s representation, Gender equality, Ethiopia
Analysis of Urban Expansion through Gis and Remote Sensing In Gullele Sub City Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2025-06-01) Zerihun Abebe; Teferi Mekonnen (PhD)
Urban expansion in Ethiopia is a significant phenomenon driven by rapid population growth, rural-urban migration, and socio-economic transformations. This study investigates the spatial and temporal dynamics of urban expansion in Gullele Sub-city, Addis Ababa, using Geographic Information System (GIS) and Remote Sensing technologies from 1993 to 2023. The study utilizes multi-temporal satellite imagery and spatial analysis to map land-use/land-cover changes, identify urban sprawl patterns, and measure the accuracy of classifications over different time periods. Socio-economic data and demographic characteristics are integrated to explore the relationships between urbanization and its impacts on agriculture, natural resources, and infrastructure. The findings highlight significant land conversion from agricultural to urban uses, driven by population pressures and policy inefficiencies. The study showed that the proportion of built-up area increased from 47.32 % in 1993 to 53.37% in 2023 (growing by 6.05%); agricultural land areas experienced a decrease from 4.97% in 1993 to 2.28% (decreased by 2.69%); Forest areas showed increase from 29.59% in 1993 to 31.43% in 2023(expanded by 1.84%) and finally Shrub land shows decrease from 19.12 to 12.92% in 2023 (shrinking by 5.2%). This has led to challenges, including displacement, environmental degradation, and inadequate urban infrastructure. The research concludes the existence of substantial urban expansion that calls for evidence-based urban planning, improved land-use regulations, and the application of geospatial technologies for effective resource management. This work provides critical insights for policymakers, urban planners, and stakeholders in addressing the challenges of urban expansion and promoting sustainable development in rapidly growing urban areas like Gullele Sub-city. Keywords: Urban expansion, GIS and Remote Sensing, Land use/Land cover, Built-up Area. Addis Ababa
Spatio-temporal trends of Prosopis juliflora plantation and its implications on livelihoods in Awash Fentale District, Afar region, Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2024-12-01) Tesfaye Taye; Asnake Mekuriaw (PhD) and Telesphore Brou(PhD)
Prosopis juliflora plantations has been the dominant plant species in the eastern parts of Ethiopoia. significantly impact the livelihoods of local communities. This study examines the trends and impacts of Prosopis juliflora plantations in the Awash Fentale District of the Afar region, Ethiopia. The analysis uses Landsat imagery and Sentinel-2 data on the Google Earth Engine platform, covering a 30-year period from 1993 to 2023, with data examined at ten-year intervals: 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023. The methodology includes land use/land cover (LULC) classification, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) analysis, regression analysis, Mann-Kendall trend analysis, and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) computation. A comparative assessment of algorithms between Landsat 8 and Sentinel-2 for 2023 reveals that Sentinel-2 achieved higher overall accuracy (97%) and Kappa (96) compared to Landsat 8 (overall accuracy: 90%, Kappa: 88%). Statistical validation indicates the significance of these results, with a p value of 0.0001, below the 0.05 threshold. The results of this study show a continuous increase in the area invaded by Prosopis juliflora over a 30-year period, from 1993 to 2023. Specifically, the coverage of this invasive species grew from 63 km² in 1993 to 87.3 km² in 2023, indicating significant expansion within the studied area.To assess household perceptions, a perception index was developed using a five-point Likert scale, identifying factors that outline these views. The results show about 93% of the respondents have negative perception whereas 7% of households view Prosopis juliflora positively. Given the invasive nature of Prosopis juliflora and its impact on land use and pastoral livelihoods, these findings are essential for informing policymakers and land managers to develop effective strategies for managing and mitigating its spread in the region. Keywords: Prosopis juliflora, spatio-temporal trends, Google Earth Engine, LULC classification, NDVI analysis, NDII computation, invasive species, pastoral livelihoods
Farmers’ adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate variability in Haramaya Woreda, Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2023-01-01) Tireza Haile; Aklilu Amsalu (PhD)
The main purpose of this study was to investigate farmers‟ response and their adaptation strategies to the impacts of climate variability in Haramaya Woreda, Ethiopia. Descriptive and explanatory research design and mix of qualitative and quantitative research approaches were used. Questionnaires from 292 Households were collected. To analyze the data, simple descriptive statistics, linear panel regression model and MNR were employed. The result revealed that, an average of 716. 8 mm precipitation and 16.73 . Of temperature was recorded in the past 30- years. Productivity has strong and positive correlation with precipitation and temperature. The farmers have different adaptation strategies for the adverse effects of climatic change in the area. In the questionnaire open ended question the HHs reply are arranged in the following themes. The MLR revealed that, Age, Educational background, Household size, sex, membership of FBOs and Farm size are found significant at with less than .05 sig value. And, the Crop productivity year temperature and rainfall reveled that, precipitation (in mm) and year are found significant at with less than .05 sig value. This shown that, then the variable has a significant association with the productivity trend in the study area. And recommended that, crop diversification, modifying the farming calendar, employing physical and biological soil and water conservation practices, using different types of crop varieties, and other agronomic activities are needed in the study Wereda. Keywords: temperature, Rainfall, crop yield productivity, adaptation and climate variability
Status of Urban Agriculture in Lemikura Sub City, the Case of Woreda 02, Addis Ababa
(Addis Ababa University, 2024-11-01) Tsehay Desalegn; Yohnnes Gebremichael (PhD)
Many developing nations including Ethiopia are struggling to meet the food demands of their citizens particularly in urban areas. Consequently, this study aimed to assess Status of Urban Agriculture in Lemikura Sub City, the Case of Woreda 02, Addis Ababa. A descriptive survey design was utilized as the most suitable research method. Data for this research was collected from both primary and secondary sources, employing qualitative and quantitative methods. Primary data were gathered from using questionnaire, focus group discussion, key informant interviews, and 86 sample household surveys. The qualitative data were transcribed and analyzed through narrative methods, while the quantitative data were organized and summarized using percentages, frequencies and graphs. The study's key finding shows that the majority of urban farmers in the study area are middle-aged groups who are economically active. The majority of urban agriculture practitioners are carried out in the open spaces that surround Lemikura Sub City. The most significant vegetables grown in the study area are carrot, tomato, onion, lettuce, chard (kosta), cabbage, and potatoes. Potatoes and carrots are used for household consumption than are intended for domestic sales. In the study area, dairy and poultry production primarily serve commercial purposes, contributing significantly to household income. The income earning status of household can matter to meet basic necessities of family members. Urban agriculture must therefore be accepted as a valid form of urban economic activity. Thus it needs integrate in sustainable urban development, food security improvement, public health enhancement and urban environmental preservation. According to the result of this study shortage of land, lack of adequate water and lack of adequate extension service are the major challenges in urban agriculture in the study area. So, providing land, extension service and adequate water to urban farmers should be given the highest priority in the study area. In general urban agriculture activity in the study area is affected by many challenges, which were not fully covered by the researcher. Thus it requires further research to determine its growth and sustainability. Key Words: Urban agriculture, vegetable, households.
Socio-Economic Rural Urban Linkages in Sire Town and its Hinterlands: East Wollega Zone, Oromia Region
(Addis Ababa University, 2024-08-01) Alemu Eshetu; Solomon Mulugeta (PhD)
This study aimed to assess socio-economic rural-urban connections between Sire town and the hinterlands in Western Ethiopia's Sibu Sire area. Being a daily resident of the district, the researcher had the idea to undertake this study due to saw discrimination and ineffectiveness between urban and rural inhabitants. Therefore, one of the researcher's goals when starting this study was to investigate and make recommendations to the relevant agencies. The researcher used a purposive sample strategy to choose the Sibu Sire district in order to conduct the study. The researcher chose a sample of residents from Sire town and surrounding rural areas, as well as employees of the Sire town management, the district offices for rural development and agriculture, and the district administration offices, in order to achieve the study's goal. They were chosen using systematic simple random sampling procedure since they were important in supplying the data required for the investigation. Thus, 49 workers from the district's offices of agriculture and rural development, Sire town administration, and district administration office, as well as 155 residences from Sire town and its hinterlands of rural areas . Through questionnaires, interviews, and observation, the researcher gathered the necessary data from this demographic. Descriptive statistics were used for analyzing the data acquired using these tools, taking into account both qualitative and quantitative data analysis techniques. Based on the analysis, the researcher noticed that there was little rural- urban linkage between Sire town and its hinterlands. The only connections between the two hinterlands were related to agriculture and politics; there was little to no linkage in terms of social services, infrastructure, transportation access, and others. The results also showed that the development of urban-rural linkages between Sire town and its hinterlands was hindered by elements connected to communities, the environment, economic situations, and administrations. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher recommended the government, the community, other researchers and others on ways of reversing the factors hindering implementation urban-rural linkage of Sire town with its hinterlands. Key words: rural, urban, urban rural linkage, Sire town and its hinterland
Land degradation, Seasonal Rural Out-Migration and Sustainable Land Management in the Dry Land of upper Tekeze basin, Northern Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2024-11-01) Alemu Eshetu; Assefa Abegaz (PhD)
The study explores the interplay of land degradation, seasonal migration, and Sustainable Land Management (SLM) dynamics in the Upper Tekeze River Basin, Ethiopia, with a focus on land use and land cover change (LULCC), drought monitoring, soil erosion, and the impacts of migration on SLM. The study investigates the temporal and spatial dynamics of LULCC over 31 years (1990-2021) using advanced remote sensing techniques such as Google Earth Engine (GEE) and the Random Forest (RF) algorithm, using primary data from Landsat surface reflectance images. The findings reveal significant changes in LULC, including a decrease in forest, bushland, shrubland, and bareland, while water bodies, farmland, urban settlements and dry riverbeds and streams showed substantial gains. These shifts indicate ongoing land degradation and highlight the future vulnerability of the basin, emphasizing the need for SLM practices and afforestation efforts to mitigate further degradation. In parallel, the study assesse spatio-temporal drought dynamics from 1981 to 2021 using multiple indices like the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI). The result shows that the basin has experienced multiple episodes of moderate to extreme drought, particularly in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2015, 2016, and 2017. Soil erosion rates assessment was carried out to estimate soil erosion rates and map soil erosion in the Upper Tekeze Basin, by integrating Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) with GEE. The study showed that the mean soil loss rate is 25.5 t ha-1 yr-1. About 63% of the basin is experiencing soil erosion above the maximum tolerable rate. Specifically, 55% of the study area, which is covered by unprotected shrubland is experiencing mean annual soil loss of 34.75 t ha-1 yr-1. Shrublands, particularly in lowland agroecologies are the most vulnerable areas. The study also revealed evidence that high mean soil loss rate of the basin can be reduced by implementing integrative watershed management and exclosures. The study further showed that that seasonal migration is triggered by factors such as drought, land scarcity, and economic pressures. The finding showed remittances and migration earnings are primarily used for basic consumption rather than investment on agricultural inputs or SLM practices, and migration is leaving behind women with the responsibility of managing less productive and degraded farmland. Labor, input, and skill limitations are also challenges faced by women in managing farmland. Finally, the study employs two-stage least squares (2-SLS) regression and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to analayze the impact of migration on the adoption of SLM practices. The findings suggest that migration has a significant negative impact on the adoption of SLM practices. Overall, the study underscores the complex interplay between land degradation, seasonal rural outmigration, and SLM practices in the Tekeze River Basin, calling for integrated and context specific interventions to promote SLM while considering the seasonal mobility of farm households. Keywords: Land use/cover dynamics, drought dynamics, soil erosion severity and extent, determinants of seseanal out-migration, response to land degradation
Urban Expansion and its Effects on Agricultural Communities: The Case of Dewey Harewa Wereda, Oromo Administration Zone, Amhara Region, Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2024-08-01) Ali Feleke; Solomon Mulugeta (PhD)
The primary objective of this research is to examine urban expansion and its effects on agricultural communities, focusing on the case of Dewey Herewa Wereda in the Oromo administrative zone of Ethiopia. This study employs both descriptive and explanatory research designs and utilizes a mixed method approach, combining quantitative and qualitative methods to collect the necessary data. A sample of 182 displaced households was randomly selected from two towns and three peripheral kebeles. The researcher gathered both numerical and non-numerical data, utilizing primary and secondary sources. A questionnaire, including both open-ended and closed-ended questions, was distributed to respondents and key informants. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze demographic variables, presented through frequency, percentage, pie charts, bar charts, and cross-tabulation. Inferential statistics, including one-sample t-tests, Chi-square tests, and paired t-tests, were also conducted. The data analysis was performed using SPSS Version 24 (Statistical Package for Social Sciences). The results indicate that the assets reported by respondents, such as farmland measured in timad, cereal yield per quintal, number of livestock, and number of permanent trees and fruits, decreased by more than half after the expansion of the towns. Additionally, the study found that, except for land compensation for house construction (sig=0.085>0.05), the remaining types of compensation (monetary compensation, land for farming, land for commerce, and land for storage) were generally perceived as fair. The researcher recommends that monetary compensation alone is insufficient. To enhance the capacity of displaced farmers and add value to their compensation, it is essential to provide skills training, job opportunities, residential land, and access to credit. Special attention should be given to people with disabilities and the elderly. Keywords: urban expansion, compensation, peri urban, livelihood strategies, agricultural communities, Dewey Herewa Wereda

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