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Item Analysis of Effect of Fine Particulate Matter and Meteorological Factors on Acute Upper Respiratory Infection Hospital Admission in Addis Ababa Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2022-06-12) Eyasu, Yosef; Temesgen, Shibru (PhD)Air pollution has become the greatest health concern in our world, especially in respiratory diseases. The concentration of particulate matter of size less than or equal to 2.5 in micrometer (PM2.5) in Addis Ababa is higher than that of the 2021 WHO guidelines limit of the annual average of 5μg/m3 and a daily average of 15 μg/m3 for the last four years of the study period. US EPA controlled single air quality monitor data of PM2.5 concentration for location Addis Ababa-Central is obtained from AirNow.gov and it is used with meteorological data for analysis of health effect. Poisson Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is utilized for the analysis of variables under study from January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021, in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In this study, statistically significant association between fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and acute upper respiratory infection hospital admission in Addis Ababa city and its health effect is observed. Relative risk of acute upper respiratory infection hospital admission associated with 10 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.06-1.11). We have also observed a positive effect of relative humidity and precipitation on respiratory infection. Therefore reducing the pollutant concentration in the city needs due attention to help people from difficulty in breathing.Item Correlates of Harmful Traditional Practices: The Case of Women in Ethiopia Path(Addis Ababa University, 2009-06) Yohannes, Zemene; Abegaz, Fentaw (PhD)This study attempts to identify the correlates of harm/iii traditional practices on Elhiol'ian women and to assess the predictive validity of some selected variables such as age, region. place of residence, educational level, ethnicity, religion, Fequency of reading news pOIJer or magazine, Fequency of watching TV, .Fequency of listening radio. weallh index. knowledge and allitude an harm/iii traditional practices. In this study, the dala colieeled by Central Statistical Agency (CSA) for the 2005 Demographic and [{eailh Survey (DIIS) were used. The study consists of 14,070 randomly selected women in Elhiopio. Preliminary analysis is carried out through bivariate analysis. Then combined elkel ollhe variables is analyzed using logislic and probit regression models. The resull shows Ihol age, region, educational level, religion, place of residence, wealth index. ethnicil)!, and attitude on harmjiil traditional practices are significanl correlates of harln/it! Imdil ional practices. In order to decrease or discontinue harm/iii traditional praC/ices like Ielnale circumcision and marriage by abduction, strategies should be designed in a such way IhCil would focus on and address the most important correlates identified inlhis stud),Item An Assessment of the Variation of the Export Trade of Ethiopia across Continents and Over Time(Addis Ababa University, 2009-07) Yebabe, Yohannes; G/Yohannes, Emmanuel (PhD)Item Time Series Analysis on the Outgoing International Telephone Calls to Saudi Arabia (1989 G.C. - 1996 G.C.)(Addis Ababa University, 1999-06) Mohammed, Yimam; Omer, Mohammed (PhD)Item A Comparative Simulation Study of the Heteroscedasticity Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimators in the Linear Regression Model(Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Alem, Yegnanew; Olubusoye, Olusanya E. (PhD)III the context of econometric methods of estimation the variances of OLS estimates derived under the assumption of homoscedasticity are not consistent when there is heteroscedasticity and their use can lead to incorrect inferences. Thus, this paper sets out to examine the performance of several modified versions of heteroscedasticity consistent covariance matrix (HCCM) estimator (namely HCO, HC I , HC2, and HC3) of White (1980) and white and MackiJU10n (1985) over a range of sample sizes. Most applications that use HCCM appear to rely on HCO, yet tests based on the other HCCM estimators are found to be consistent even in the presence of heteroscedasticity of an unknown form . Based on Monte Carlo experiments which compare the performance of the t statistic, it was found out that HC2 and HC3 estimators precisely out perform the others in small samples. In particular HC3 estimator for samples of size less than 100 was found to be better than the other HCCM estimators; when samples are 250 or larger, other versions of the HCCM can be used. Added to that, it was cost advantageous to employ HC3 instead of ordinary least square covariance matrix (OLSCM) even when there is li ttle evidence of hetreoscedastici ty. Key words White estimator, Monte Carlo Simulation, Linear Regression, HeterosexualityItem Factors Affecting Saturation Flow at Signalized Intersections in Addis Ababa(Addis Ababa University, 2011-01) Ambelu, Worku; GlYohannes, Emmanuel (PhD)This study was conducted to identify factors affecting saturation flow at signalized intersections in Addis Ababa. Secondary data collected using headway method, synchronous method and asynchronous method were used for the analysis. The data consisted of headways, number and type of vehicles, number of lanes in an approach, approach grade, green time length of a signal, lane width, number of pedestrians crossing vehicle flows, and percentage of large buses that made vehicle flows in a lane (as derivative information). Lane wise saturation flows were determined using headway ratio method, synchronous regression method and asynchronous reg ression method. Passenger car equivalents for each class of vehicles were also estimated. The saturation flow estimated from the th ree methods was regressed on the independent variables. Based on the coefficient of determination, synchronous regression method was found to have better explanatory power. Slope of an approach and number of pedestrians crossing vehicle flows were found to be significant factors affecting saturation flow of veh icles at signalized intersections when the synchronous method was applied to estimate saturation flows. Therefore, attention should be paid to approach grade while designing new road intersections and modifying existing ones and pedestrians should be given sufficient awareness so that they do not disrupt traffic flow during green phase of traffic signal.Item Statistical Analysis of the Performance of Micro Finance Institutions: The Case of Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Anduanbessa, Tsegaye; G/yohannes, Emmanuel (PhD)Nowadays, governments and many development agents pay great attention to the development and enhancement of Microfinance Institutions (MFIs) anticipating that they are the shortest way to end poverty. Many scholars and stakeholders also acknowledge that MFIs are the possible panacea to under development but they stress on the proper supervision and regulation of these MFIs as they are mobilizing susceptible resources. However, evaluating the performance of MFIs is found to be among the most controversial issues throughout the world leave alone in countries like Ethiopia where the micro financing business is at its infant age. Different researchers and practitioners found in different corners of the world employ various kinds of approaches to scrutinize the performance of MFIs. It is crucial for countries to measure the performance of their MFIs and identify the major determinants of their performance, at any cost, in order to see their relevance and prospects prior to new policy developments, strategic planning and so on. Tlus paper, therefore, tried to give statistical insight in measuring the performance of MFIs in the country and the determinants of their performance. A cross-sectional data from the 2006 fiscal calendar balance sheet of 26 MFIs is utilized to make the study. An effort is also made to observe the trend of the industry with respect to some indicators by collecting time series data. Consequently, the factor analysis part of the study identified that Deposit mobilized from clients, Number of Active Borrowers, and Gross Loan Portfolio load lugh on one component fortlling tl,e outreach performance dimension of tl,e MFIs in tl,e country. On the other hand, Profit Margin, OSS, Return on Asset and Gross Loan Portfolio to Total Asset Ratio load lugh on the other component fortlung tl,e financial viability dimension of tl,e MFIs. The factor scores also identified tllat ACSI and Ocssco are among tl,e best performing MPIs, whereas, Aggar and Metemamen are among the least performants in the country in every dimension. In order to identify the determinants of tl,e performance of tl,e MFIs, on the two dimensions, a SUR model was fitted on the scores synthesized by tl,e factor analysis anticipating tl,e performances of outreach and sustainability of the MFIs are interrelated. However, tl,e Breusch Pagan test exposed tl,at tl,ere is no evidence to reject tl,e hypotllesis that the errors are not correlated across equations (0"12 = 0). Besides, the significant positive correlation between outreach and sustainability performance dimensions approves that there is no trade-off between the two dimensions in the case of our particular country MFIs. The number/ types of financial services rendered, the number of staffs per branch and their capital are found to determine the outreach performance of the MFIs in the country. It was also noted that capital has an adverse impact on the outreach efforts of the MFIs. The unregulated growth of capital has a negative impact on bodl outreach and sustainability of d,e MFIs dlough it is not significant on the case of sustainability. MFIs in the country tend to focus on d,eir capital for weir loan-able funds rad,er dun on deposit mobilization. Moreover, d,e fmancial viability of We MFIs is found to be highly determined by the average amount of loans disbursed to individuals, the fll1ancial revenue ratio and d,e cost per borrower ratio. The signs of these determinants agree to the expect,~tions set on the study. To the surprise of d,e author, d,e number of branches that MFIs have is found not to affect the performance of the MFIs contrary to d,e expectation set. Intrinsically, one expects Wat We number of branches that d,e MFIs have affects d,e outreach and sustain ability performance of the MFIs significandy, but Wat is not We case in this particular study.Item A Multlvaviate Time Series Analysis of Agrometeorological Data to Assess the Effect of Climate Variability on Production of Sorghum: The Case of Melkassa, Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Mideksa, Tigist; Gotu, Butte (PhDClimate change affects all economic sectors to some degree, but the agricultural sector is perhaps the most sensitive and vulnerable. In the last three decades, Ethiopia has been affected by climare-related hazards. Agriculture, the most dominant sector in the national economy, has been most at risk because of its dependence on seasonal rainfall. Anticipated climate change has negatively impacted the agricultural sector due to increased temperatures and decreased or greater variability in precipitation, leading to increased food insecurity. The aim of this thesis is to study the effects of rainfall and temperature on sorghum yield over long period of time. The study consists of thirty two years consecutive summer seasons total summer rainfall in mm, average temperature in degree centigrade and sorghum yield of medium maturing Gambella- 1107 variety in quintal per hectare (Qlh) which is used as a control variety in Melkossa Research Center of E1AR. Multivariate time series analysis that is Vector Auto Regressive model is used for this study. The results obtained show that rainfall and yield are highly variable. Rainfall shock has significant impact on rainfall temperature and yield, temperature shock has a significant impact on temperature rainfall and yield and also yield shock has a significant impact on yield. It was observed that rainfall variation could fully be explained by its own innovations. For temperature, in the first round, 56% variation of temperature has resulted ji-om the shock of its own innovation and 44% variation resulted from the change in rainfall. Yield variation of up to 48.1% is explained by changes in rainfall amounts, the percentage contribution of yield shock for its forecast variance is around 48.6%. There exist high inter annual variability in summer rainfall total which is an evidence to climate variability in the study area and also yield is highly variable. Past year and following year rainfall temperature and yield are autocorelated and rainwater is a principal component in determining sorghum yield. Keywords: VAR, Sorghum(Gambella#1107 variety), MelkassaItem Household Level Determinants of Poverty in Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2013-06) Kebede, Teshome; Sharma, M.K. (Prof.)Poverty has turned out to be a great global social and economic problem. In Ethiopia, it is multifaceted and deep rooted The objective of this study was to analyze the impact of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of households on poverty in Ethiopia, both in urban and rural areas, using the latest Household Income, Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HICES) 2010-11 data. The study used a logistic regression model to identify determinants of wellbeing of the household by considering poverty status as dependent variable. Different households are classified as either poor or not-poor on the basis of absolute poverty line yearly per capita consumption of Birr 3781. Results showed that households that own agricultural land, headed by educated person and head of the household employed (self-employed or employed in the formal sector) are more likely to exit from poverty tmp. The results of the logistic regression also implied that household wellbeing is negatively affected by being headed by female, having large household size and high dependency ratio. Moreover, the study revealed that the probability of being poor is higher in rural areas. Any policy or program that is geared towards eradicating poverty in the counlly must recognize the impact of these factors in order for it to succeed.Item Determinants of Urban Household Poverty in Addis Ababa(Addis Ababa University, 2008-07) Hibstu, Tegodie; G/Yohannes, Emanuel (PhD)It is true that urban areas are hopes of life for they are centers of income, commerce, wealth, education and the like. On the other hand, there are several challenges of which one of them is urban poverty. In Ethiopia, while a number of studies have been conducted in rural areas, those concerning urban poverty are limited. Obviously it is important to understand the nature and scale of urbani zation, the various deriving forces that affect it and determinants of urban poverty as linked to this process. Thus, this study assesses the determinants of urban household poveliy in Addis Ababa based on survey data using logi stic regression. Based on the cost of basic needs approach, out of the 3462 surveyed households, 14 15 of them were found to be poor, that is, the head count is 40.9%. The poverty gap and severity of poverty indices were found out to be, O. I 5 and 0.07, respectively. This calls for urgent intervention aimed at fighting poverty. Among thc variables (factors) us cd in this study, place of residence, household size, income source, educational and employment status of heads of households, ownership of house and ownership of tap water inside the compound were found out to be significant detenninants of the poverty status of households in Addis Ababa.Item Comparative Analysis of Pertility Infant and Child Mortality in Somali and Affar Region(Addis Ababa University, 1998-06) Teshome, Tamirat; Teferaa, Yilma (PhD)Item A Production Function Analysis for Private Peasant Holdings Crop Farms in Ethiopia: An Application of Robust Regression(Addis Ababa University, 2009-06) Kassahun, Taddesse; Abegaz, Fentaw (PhD)This study applied production function analysis for private peasant holdings crop farms in Ethiopi a. Four major crop producing regions viz., Tigray, Amhara, Oromia and SNNP were included in the study. Three regression models for production fun ction namely, linear, exponential and Cobb Douglas were considered and thoroughly assessed {'or stati stical model diagnostics. The statistical model diagnostics and checking suggested that crop production function for each of the regions was found to be appropriately represented by the Cobb-Douglas production function based on data from the 2007/08 (2000 EC) agricultural sample survey. The Cobb-Douglas production function was first fitted for each region using ordinary least squares (OLS) regression. As expected, the parameter estimates using OLS were mi sleading due to the occurrence of several outlying cases and hence robust regression was taken as a viable alternative. Based on the results of robust regression, many of the parameter est imates took on the expected signs, the R2 values were substantially increased and the standard errors of parameter estimates were decreased at large. In general, robust regression results indicated that farm size, fe rtili zer, seed, oxen power and human labor were playing a pivotal role for the maximization of crop yield in each of the studied regions. From among these variables, the great contribution was found to be due to farm size in each of the regions with SNNP an exception in whi ch the great share was due to human labor. However, the contribution of education variable for crop yie ld was found to be stati sti cally insignificant and received negative sign in Tigray and Amhara regions. Counter to expectations, the coefficient estimate for irrigation variable in Tigray, Amhara and SNNP regions had come to obtain negative sign though it was not found to be stati stically significant. The product ion elasticities for each of the inputs at each region except farm size in Tigray, Amhara and Oromia suggested that the relation between inputs and output was inelastic, i.e., ho lding other {actors constant, the marginal return to each factor wi ll decrease as more of the factors are used. Additionally, crop production functions revealed that returns to scale were estim ated to be greater than unity in each of the regions indi cating increasing returns to scale.Item Forecasting Model of Inflationary Process in Ethiopia(2008-07) Cherinet, Taddele; Olubusoye, Elisa (PhD)The primary focus of monetary policy both in Ethiopia and elsewhere, has traditionally been the maintenance of a low and stable rate of aggregate price inflation as defined by commonly accepted measures such as the consumer price index. The control of inflation is one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The aim of this study is to investigate the nature of inflation in Ethiopia and construct a model that can be used to forecast future values. The exponential smoothing method was employed and the forecasting performance of winter (additive) method was found to be better. Two alternative approaches to model identification were considered, the Box-Jenkins methodology and penalty jimction criteria. For Ethiopian monthly inflation data covering the period 1997:08 to 2006:06 various possible ARMA models were fitted. The comparative performance of these ARMA models were checked and verified by using Akaike In/ormation Criteria, Schwartz Criteria, Root mean square percentage error, Mean absolute error and Mean absolute percentage error.Item Determinants of Individuals Work Status, The Case of Oromia Region(Addis Ababa University, 2006-07) Temesgen, Shibru; Wehncheko, Eshetu(Prof.)This paper attempts to identify the major determinants of individuals labour force participation in Gromia Region and to examine how these determinants are associated with individuals labour force participation. The data from the J 994 Population and Housing census of Ethiopia, are analyzed by the logistic regression model. A number of potential variables for inc/us ion in the logistic regression are identified on the basis of results of the chi-squared tests and also on the basis of theoretical models which explain individual 's participation in the labour force. The results suggest that age, sex, marital status, educational level, ethnicity, place of residence and disability status are important factors while religion does not sign!ficantly affect individuals in Gromia Region entering into the labour force. Finally, J would like to forward that up to date investigation in the work status of individuals at national and/or regional level is very important. Researchers who try to examine the determiningfactors of work status in the future have to take into account those variables that are not included in this study.Item Determinants of Non - Coffee Export Commodities of Ethiopia (1970/71-2004/05)(Addis Ababa University, 2008-09) Bekele, Semen; GlYohannes, Gebre-Emanuel (PhD)The purpose 01' this paper is to anal yze the determinant or non-colTec export commodities. subdividing in tll two categories. namely NCOI: I (sum 01' oil secds. chat. hides and skins. pulses) anc! NCOI :2 (sum or meat and meat products. rruit vegetables. sugar. gu ld. oil cakes, live animals. petroleum and petroleum products. bees and wax, other).The study cmploys the standard Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips "herron test to test the stationarity of all variables at levels and lirst di fference and the two stage I:nglc Granger test to check the existence or eointegration re lationship. The model was estimated using error correction procedure. The main lindings or the study sholY that: lirst. real efrecti ve exc hange rate is one or the litctors that determine both thl' long term and short krm m()\ eml'nt "I' real non-cllll,'c I export commodities or I·:thiopia. Secondly. external shock like terms or trade determines the movement or export of noncolTee I. Thirdl". GD!' is one or the important raeturs which determine the mo,'ement IClr the nunclll'iCc2. impl) ing that as the country's out put due to thc inllul'nce or the perlc))']nanec or thc agricultural sector increases. the countr)'s non-cot'iCe2 cxport commodi ties mo vement will increase. Fourthl y. exchange rate gap is one of the common ractors that determ ine movemcnt lor both non-co llee cxport groups.Item Woreda Level Estimates of Agricultural Area and Production: Small Area Estimation Using Auxiliary Data(Addis Ababa University, 2009-08) Jemal, Seid; Abegaz, Fentaw (PhD)This study applies small area estimation technique to analyze available agricultural data to estimate the total of basic agricultural variables such as total cultivated area in hectares and total production in quintals ofTeJJfor woredas in the Tigray Region using cultivated area and production data from 2001102 National Agriculture Sample Census Enumeration and from Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development as an auxiliary variable. An area level model for small area analysis is used to produce estimate on cultivated area and production for 33 woreda in the Tigray Region. The estimation process shows significant woreda-specific random eJJect which leads to acquire a beller estimate for cultivated area and production.Item Determination of Factors Associated with High Risk of Infant Mortality in Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Muluye, Samuel; Wencheko, Eshetu(Prof.)Ethiopia has the highest rate of infant deaths in Eastern and Southern Africa. This study addresses important issues concerning infant mortality in Ethiopia. The objective of the paper is to determine the impact of socioeconomic, demographic and environmental variables on infant mortality. The data for this study were obtained from the demographic and health survey (DHS) conducted in Ethiopia 2005. The results of Kaplan-Meier estimation show that most of the deaths occurred in the earlier month from birth to one month and then after death declined in the later months. The Cox proportional regression model was fitted to select the significant factors affecting infant mortality in Ethiopia. The model considered provided good fit for the data. Based on the result of the Cox proportional regression model, infant mortality was significantly associated with breast status, mother age at birth, mother's education, birth order, source of drinking water and sex (p < 0.05). This study supports health policy initiatives to stimulate use of family planning methods to increase birth spacing. It is hoped that, the results could be used by policy makers and programme managers in the c,h ,. i ld health sector to formulate appropriate strategies to improve the situation of infants in Ethiopia,Item Statistical Analysis of the Performance of City-Buses in Addis Ababa in 1990 E.C.(Addis Ababa University, 1999-06) Abebe, Samuel; Dilba, Gemechis (PhD)Item Factors Influencing Women's Intention to Limit Child-bearing in Rural Ethiopia(Addis Ababa University, 2013-04) Lemessa, Reta; Wencheko, Eshetu(Prof.)The fertility level of Ethiopia, especially in the rural areas, is unacceptably high. This is leading to negative influence on economic and social development. Thus, understanding those factors that influence the fert ility intention of women is important for family planning program purposes and population policy. The main objective of thi s study is to identify factors which influence women's intentions to limit child-bearing in rural Ethiopia. The source of the data was the 20 II Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A weighted sub-sample of 10,864 women was drawn from the DHS women's dataset. The ordinary logistic regression analysis and multilevel logistic regression were applied to examine the association between intention to limit childbearing and demographic, socio-economic, and cultural characteristics. The ordinary logistic regression analysis revealed that the age of a woman, region of residence, religion, woman's education, knowledge about fami ly planning (FP), current use of any family planning method, marital status of women, visited by FP workers, wealth index, media exposure, number of living children and occupation of women were the most important variables that explained the variability in desi re to limit child-bearing. The multilevel logistic regression analysis showed that there were substantial variations in desire to limit chi ld-bearing among eight regions in rural Ethiopia. Accordingly, the random intercept model revealed that there was a significance variation in intention to limit child-bearing across the considered regions. Results of random coefficient for the selected few predictor variables, number of living children was found to be signi ficant in explaining variations in intention to limit child-bearing across the regions. Thus, improving access to fam ily planning services to women who have achieved their fertility goals would be important.Item Determinants of child Labor in Rural parts of Southern, Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (SNNPR)(Addis Ababa University, 2009-06) Asfaw, Netsanet; G/Yohan ncs, Emmanuel (PhD)The main objective o f this study is to identi fy some of the factors that determine child labor and to see how they contribute to the widesp read practice of child labor in rural parts of SNNP region. The source of data used in thi s study is the 200 1 Ethiopia Child Labor Survey conducted by Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia. The total number of cases in thi s study is 4859 of which 2042 are not worki ng (control) group and 28 17 are working children. Both descriptive and in fe renti al techniques were employed to analyze the data. Freq uency di stributi on was used to see the percentage share among the background variables. Moreover, to see the associati on of the predictor variablcs with the depe ndent vari able and to !-ind out the main determinants or c hild labor among diffe rent socio-eeonomic and demographic variabl es, univari ate and multi variate stati stical techniques were employed. The analysis or the data using logistic regression method revealed that work status of children is associated with : age of child , sex of child. re li gion of head of the household, mi gration status of head or the household, household size, household income, education status of head oT the housellOld, school attendance or chi Id and marital status of head of the household.