Determinants of Non - Coffee Export Commodities of Ethiopia (1970/71-2004/05)
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Date
2008-09
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The purpose 01' this paper is to anal yze the determinant or non-colTec export
commodities. subdividing in tll two categories. namely NCOI: I (sum 01' oil secds. chat.
hides and skins. pulses) anc! NCOI :2 (sum or meat and meat products. rruit vegetables.
sugar. gu ld. oil cakes, live animals. petroleum and petroleum products. bees and wax,
other).The study cmploys the standard Augmented Dicky-Fuller and Phillips "herron test
to test the stationarity of all variables at levels and lirst di fference and the two stage
I:nglc Granger test to check the existence or eointegration re lationship. The model was
estimated using error correction procedure.
The main lindings or the study sholY that: lirst. real efrecti ve exc hange rate is one or the
litctors that determine both thl' long term and short krm m()\ eml'nt "I' real non-cllll,'c I
export commodities or I·:thiopia.
Secondly. external shock like terms or trade determines the movement or export of noncolTee
I.
Thirdl". GD!' is one or the important raeturs which determine the mo,'ement IClr the nunclll'iCc2.
impl) ing that as the country's out put due to thc inllul'nce or the perlc))']nanec or
thc agricultural sector increases. the countr)'s non-cot'iCe2 cxport commodi ties
mo vement will increase.
Fourthl y. exchange rate gap is one of the common ractors that determ ine movemcnt lor
both non-co llee cxport groups.
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Keywords
Determinants of Non - Coffee Export Commodities of Ethiopia