The Demographic Transition, Youth Potential and Development Nexus in Ethiopia: Dividend or Burden?
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Date
2010-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The thes is addresses the demographic transi tion potcntial in Ethiopia and the poss ibility
of ca pturing the demographic dividend observed in some East Asian Countries, as well
as, suggests mechani sms to fac ili tate this possible opportunity. It is based on the
"S pectrum" Proj ecti on Model covering the period from 1994 to 2050. The age structure
of the Ethiopian popu lation has remained child and youth dominated for along time now.
but with recent incipient fe rtil i ty dec line expected to be ex pediting, Ethiopia's
demographic profile will see considerable shi ft in the nex t ['our decades,
Educat ion and employment indicators wi tness that despite striking improvements In
primary ed uca tion and modest decline in unemployment rate past years. there is still huge
unemployment ra te and low secondary school enrol lment, as well as, wide gender
disparity in both secondary education and forma l employment. Proj ec tions under three
different fertility scenarios reveal that fert ility plays multi ple roles in boosting Ethiopia to
reap the demographic di vidend th rough; reducing population size, changi ng the age
st ructure and rai sing the status of women. Thus it will determine Ethiopia 's future
development course including its prospec ls of joining Middle Incoilic Countr ies. This
requires the government to al locate more funds for fam ily plann ing service provision and
diffusion of small fam ily norm in i ts development stmtegy as well as establ ishing quality
institution including evalu ating the old popul ation policy of Eth iopi a.
Nonetheless, the demographic di vidend is not automatic. nor does the window of
opportunity lasts fore ver. Hence it can be reaped if policies and programs in countries at
the incipient stages of the demographic transition are focused on the needs, aspirations
and expectations for a growi ng bulge of you ng people. These precondi tions. among
others, incl ude training and j ob creation for youth. quality and efficient educational
system, agri cultural moderni zation and intensificat ion, labor intensive production
technology, health ier lifestyles. and in st itutional developments. Under business as usual
scenario, however, the future is hl eak and the youth wou ld turn out to be gi ven up
burdens ralher than grown up di vidend.
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Keywords
Youth Potential, Development Nexus in Ethiopia: