Econometrics

Permanent URI for this collection

http://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/12345678/174

Browse

Now showing 1 - 20 of 47

Analysis of Urban Fringe Household Vulnerability to Poverty in low Income Areas in Addis Ababa Sub City: a Case Study of Hachalu Hundasa Zone of Koye Fecha Sub City
(A.A.U, 2025-07-25) Hanan Nesru; Wassie Brhanu (PhD)
The study is aimed to examine the extent of vulnerability to poverty with the current poverty status among urban fringe households in Addis Ababa in case of Hachalu Hundesa Zone .The research examined the socio-demographic and economic factors contributing vulnerability to poverty among households in low-income areas. The study used a cross-sectional survey methodology, gathering data from 267 households. The study reveals that a significant proportion of households, approximately 35.6 % headcount poverty, highlighting the extent of economic vulnerability. The Feasible Generalized Least Squares estimation was adopted to estimate the vulnerability to the poverty status of the respondents; results showed that 99.9% were vulnerable to becoming poor in the future. It is found that key socio-demographic factors, such as household size, gender disparities, educational status, and limited access to essential services significant associated with household poverty. In the study area of Female-headed households, 34.8% have low educational levels, contributing to limited employment opportunities. This analysis underscores the importance of education and stable employment in mitigating vulnerability. Another factor of increasing household sizes and inadequate access to utilities like proper sanitation and electricity further impede economic mobility. In the study Informal employment 66.6% and reliance on informal support networks highlight that many households experience financial instability. However the government support programs, such as skills training, are available. Food subsidies for microfinance benefit some, but their underutilization highlights the need for improved outreach and accessibility. The study recommends enhancing educational access, expanding employment opportunities, improving infrastructure, raising awareness household size reduction, and designing policies to increase household disposable income, thereby alleviating poverty and strengthening resilience.
The Impact of Privatization on Economic Growth in Ethiopia
(A.A.U, 2025-06-01) Melese Fenta; Girma Estifanos
This study examines the impact of privatization on Ethiopia's economic growth using annual time series data from 1991 to 2023, distinguishing between short-run and long-run effects. While real GDP per capita growth is used as a proxy for economic growth, claims on the private sector are used as a proxy for the extent of privatization. The study also includes important macroeconomic control elements like inflation, public debt, government spending, domestic investment, and foreign direct investment. The short-term changes and long-term relationships between these variables were represented using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The empirical findings demonstrate that privatization has a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth over the long and short terms. Inflation was found significantly and negatively affecting economic growth in the short run while it has no significant impact in the long run. Domestic investment has a positive and statistically significant long-term impact. Public debt has statistically significant negative effects on long-term economic growth, suggesting overtime debt burden undermines long-term economic performance. Government spending has a negative significant impact in the short run and a statistically insignificant impact on economic growth in the long term, while foreign direct investment had no apparent influence. These results suggest that if privatization is coupled with favorable structural reforms and macroeconomic stability, it can increase economic growth. The findings demonstrate how crucial it is to develop policies that encourage private sector involvement while upholding prudent budgetary and inflationary control. Additionally, focusing more on monitoring the success of public investments and ensuring consistency in government spending will help prevent resource misallocation and improve economic results. Keywords: Ethiopia, Privatization, Economic growth, ARDL
Determinants of Rural Households’ Access to Credit and Its Impact On Households’ Food Security and Crop Productivity: Evidence from Ethiopia Hu Manie
(AAU, 2025-06-02) Amanuel Nigus; Gebeyehu Manie
This study examined the determinants of rural households’ access to credit and its impact on household’s food security and crop productivity in rural Ethiopia. To this end it employed a secondary data of 1524 rural households participated on the 2021/22 socio-economic survey accessed from the World Bank data base. Households’ food security status was measured by dietary diversity score and daily calorie consumption per adult equivalence. As to econometric methodology, binomial logistic regression model was used for identifying factors affecting households’ credit access, while endogenous switching regression model was employed for examining the impact of access to credit on food security and crop productivity (yield) outcomes. The study revealed that access to credit is very low in rural Ethiopia in which only 7.2% of sample households have managed to get credit access. Moreover, the result of binomial logistic regression model indicated that age of household head, monthly income, livestock size, distance from nearest market center and access to extension services are key determinants of rural households access to credit in the study area. Results of average treatment effect indicate that access to credit significantly boosts teff and maize productivity in the study area. However, despite significantly enhancing improved seed and chemical fertilizer adoption, it is not found to have impact on food security. It emphasizes the need for complementary interventions to address broader household welfare, ensuring that agricultural gains translate into sustainable food security outcomes for rural households of Ethiopia. Key Words: Credit Access, Endogenous Switching regression, Food Security, Ethiopia
The influence of Digitalization on Customer Satisfaction: a Comparative Study on three Commercial Bank Customers in Ethiopia
(A.A.U, 2026-01-01) Eleni Ababu; Workneh Kassa
The objective of this research is to examine the impact of digitalization on customer satisfaction within commercial banks in Ethiopia. The study utilized an explanatory research design to explore the relationships between the variables under investigation. The target population comprised customers from various branches of the three selected commercial banks. A random sampling technique was employed to select the sample, and data was gathered from respondents using a structured questionnaire. The responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics, with SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) as the analytical tool. The findings revealed that robust security measures, the speed and efficiency of digital transactions, and reduced waiting times for information and support positively influence customer satisfaction. A sample size of 384 was determined, and primary data were analyzed. Multiple linear regression analysis was conducted to evaluate both the collective and individual effects of the independent variables on the dependent variable, which is customer satisfaction. The results indicated that factors such as ease of use, personalization, speed and efficiency, Omni channel access, security, service quality, and customer experience were significant predictors of customer satisfaction. The model yielded an R-squared value of 0.687, signifying that it accounted for 68.7 percent of the variance in customer satisfaction. The findings suggest that banks should prioritize enhancing their focus on security issues and data privacy, as highlighted by respondents. Customers are increasingly demanding higher levels of control, security, and privacy from the banking sector elements that significantly influence their satisfaction with banking services. Keywords: Commercial banks, SPSS, Digitalization
Analysis of the Nexus Between Export, Domestic Demand and Economic Growth in the Case of Ethiopia
(A.A.U, 2025-09-02) Alem Zeleke; Fantu Guta
While fundamental relationships among macroeconomic variables are often shaped by established economic theories, the actual behavior of these variables can differ significantly due to the distinct characteristics of each country's macroeconomic environment. Therefore, it is crucial to analyze these relationships in context. In particular, examining the connections between domestic demand and growth, as well as between exports and growth, is essential for understanding both the long-term development of the economy and its short-term fluctuations. This analysis also helps to identify the key drivers of economic growth. However, in the case of Ethiopia, the causal relationships between exports, domestic demand, and economic growth have not been sufficiently explored in the existing literature. The objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between export, domestic demand and economic growth in Ethiopia, using the time series data from 1974-2023 and employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach and Error Correction Model (ECM) in a time series economic framework. This study uses two measures for domestic demand, namely gross fixed capital formation and gross government expenditure. Result of ARDL bounds test indicates the existence of long run relationship among the variables. In the long-run granger causality tests reinforce the centrality of the export-growth nexus, showing a strong bidirectional causal link. Furthermore, unidirectional causality runs from economic growth to government expenditure and external debt. A successful and sustained economic growth requires growth in both export and domestic demand in Ethiopia. Key words: Export, economic growth, domestic demand, VECM, and Ethiopia.
Effect of Coerporate Social Responsibility on Company Image: The Case of Commercial Bank of Ethiopia
(A.A.U, 2026-02-01) Etsub Hailu; Hailemariam G; Demeke Chimdessa; Gebre Sorsa
Corporate social responsibility has become an important strategic method for improving a company’s image in the banking and finance industry. The study investigated the effect of corporate social responsibility and its dimensions such as Economic responsibility, Legal responsibility, Ethical responsibility and Philanthropic responsibility on company image in the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia. A quantitative research approach, descriptive and an explanatory research design is used. A structured questionnaire is used to collect primary data from 399 CBE customers. SPSS version 27 is used to analyze descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation analysis, and multiple regression analysis. Diagnostic tests to verify the validity of the regression model such as normality, linearity, muticollinearity, homoscedasticity and autocorrelation are done. The descriptive results revealed that respondents generally have a positive opinion of the bank's CSR efforts. The greatest mean score was given to ethical responsibility, which was followed by legal and economic obligations. The lowest mean score was given to philanthropic responsibility. All CSR characteristics show a positive and statistically significant relationship with company image, according to the correlation study. The regression results further demonstrated that 56.1% of the variation in company image can be explained by CSR characteristics taken together. All of the hypotheses were accepted because it was discovered that the four CSR dimensions has a positive and significant effect on the company's image. Legal and Economic responsibilities found to be the strongest predictors of Company image than Ethical and Philanthropic responsibilities as they have the highest standardized beta coefficient. The study concludes that corporate social responsibility plays a significant role in shaping company image. It recommends that banks strengthen ethical practices, enhance transparency and legal compliance, and strategically integrate and communicate philanthropic initiatives to improve corporate image and stakeholder trust. KEYWORDS: Corporate social responsibility, Company image, Ethical responsibility, Economic responsibility, Philanthropic responsibility, Legal responsibility
Economic Growth, Capital Accumulation and Stability in Ethiopia.
(A.A.U, 2008-07) Gebremedhin, Zelalem; Estiphanos, Girma (D)
This study tries to investigate the impact of capital accumulation and macro stability on economic growth of Ethiopia taking a series of data range from 1971 to 2006. result of co-integration test using Johanson likelihood approach indicates that all explanatory variables which are entered in the model form long-run equilibrium. the study is also conducted test for weak exogeneity and test for zero restrictions on co-integrating vectors to determine causality relationship and level of significance among equilibrium established variables. the result indicated that real GDP positively and strongly associated with physical capital, but negatively and significantly with budget deficit and political instabilities. The- '"" study could not find strong evidence which supports the existence of macro instability in the long-run other than short-run impact. The existence of war as indicator of political instability, adversely affects real GDP both in the long-run and short-run. In Ethiopia context, physical capital is found to be more important than human capital probably due to lesser human capital are accumulated in the stock.
The Impacts of Women's Education on Elements of Reproductive Health and Governance
(A.A.U, 2000-05) Assefa, Daniel; Yoseph, Getachew
The driving argument for conducting this study has come out of the belief that there are multifaceted benefits to investments in education other than the conventional private returns calculation earning differentials. among a wide range of variables that education can presumably exert effects upon, two elements of reproductive health and one element of governance were considered in this study. More specifically this study has committed itself to the investigation of the impacts of education on fertility, contraceptive use and political participation of women. by making use of a primary data from a survey on 1002 women of reproductive age living in urban sides of Addis Ababa and debre berhan estimations were made. the results show that generally education reduced fertility, raised contraception and positively contributed to the political participation of women. It was also proved that as opposed to the conventional wisdom that primary education is enough to exert such influences on t fettility and contraception, the findings showed at least a completion of grade eight schooling was required. /I was also found out that it was women's education and not husband's education that resulted in significant effects on all the three variables. Lastly, most of education's impact especially on fertility came about through the delaying of age at marriage.
Poverty, Access to Finance and Markets in Rural Ethiopia: Empirical Evidence from Coffee Growing Households
(A.A.U, 2009-06) Getachew, Ahmed Abegaz; Dejene, Aredo (PhD)
This paper Iries III eSlahlish Ihe link 11701 access 10 credil and prodllci markels have on Ihe \i'elfclre sl({/IIS or hOllseholds in .lil·e co/lee growing zones o/OrolJlia and SNNP regional sl(l/es. BOlh descripl ive (poverly profile) and regression analysis are employed. II was fa lind 1/70/ {he incidence (d poret!." 11'us./iJlll7d to he r0l11pal11 in the situ/)' area 1\ ';Ih head COlll71 ratio or (Un, a hi( .I'll/oller figllre Ihan Ihe official eslimales or Ihe incidence o(po,'en,' in rllml ({reo s. Whereas .Jill/lila uml IIll1hohllr " 'ere fOllnd 10 he signi/icol7li1' di/j'erel/I F um Wesl Hu/'Urge, Ihis di/ference "'ilh Sidul//o and !lllIhahllr " 'ere n(}f signijicol7I. Access (() credi/lFos ./i17I17" 10 he significal7lly explaining Ihe level o( po"err), in Ihe .\'wnple hOllseholds. Households l\'ho hu\'(! on uccess fO credif ha\'e more prohahililY o(getling o/(f (~r poverty Ihon households 'I'ho don 'I IU/I'e an access 10 ii, Moreover, Ihe ' I'elfclre or hOllseholds wilh nmrer produci /11arke /.\' is heller Ihan Ihe ,,'el/ilre or households hOl'ing disf({nl producI II/urkels, There/in'e, pr01'isiol/ or rllral credil IU Ihese households 'I'ill help Ihem finance ;m'eSfml!n1S (lnd to insure oguinsl risks and Iherehy enhances their \I'e(j"al'C!. J\;/uking markels ' I'ork fill' Ihe poor is imporlanl "e('({{/I'e poor people rei1' on /i)rll'lol and infi)/'/l1ol murkels 10 \'ell Iheir protiIiG/s. rVel/:/ilJ1clioning markets are important in generating gnHFlh lind expanding oJ7porllmi/ies fi)J-/he p()or.
Determinants of Cut-Flower Export Supply of Ethiopia: A Panel Data Evidence
(A.A.U, 2009-06) Getachew, Virga Belete; Dr. Girma, Estiphanos
This study generally aims at investigating the basic factors behind the recent pelformance of Ethiopian cut-flower exports. Efforts are made to check whether factors of production and market and sector-specific incentives affect export supply, and to compute short-run and longrun elasticities. A one way error-component panel data model, based on data of 33 exporting farms from 2005 through 2008, is estimated. Random-, fixed- and between-effects estimators are fit to respectively capture over-all, short-run and long-run determinants and elasticities. The descriptive analysis shows that the recent growth of Ethiopia 's cut-flower exports is notable and can be explained by farms' use of more land under greenhouse cover. The econometric estimations generally reveal that both price and non-price factors explain cut-flower export supply. Land under greenhouse cover is found a strong determinant in all of our estimations. Infrastructure and transportation costs in the short-run and real exchange rates and hired labor in the long-run are additional important factors. All in all, cut-flower export supply is determined significantly by relative prices, land, labor, sector-specific infrastructure and unit costs of transporting flowers to major international markets. Being a foreign investor and association membership do not significantly affect export supply. Coefficients are found elastic for land, infrastructure and transportation costs, and inelastic for others. The results call forth strong efforts to fight inflation; reasonable worker payment, safety and training; continual follow-up of farms for effective and sustainable land use; and adequate infrastructural development.
Determinants of Capital Flight in Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Member Countries: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
(Addis Ababa University, 2012-06) Haregewoin, Yoseph; Admasse, Assefa( PhD)
Numerous of studies in recent years have focused attention on the determinants of capital flight in the developing countries. This paper contributed to this body of knowledge by filling a noticeable gap. Principally, this paper examines the determinant of capital flight from 13 member countries of COMESA for the period 1990-2009. The paper employed first difference General Method of Momentum (GMM) and system GMM to find out the determinant of capital flight from COMESA member countries. The study found that capital flight has a tendency to persist over time, which may reflect that habit-formation effect or contagion effect. The study also found that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has a positive and significant effect which may reflect existence of discriminatory-treatment for domestic investors. Capital flight from COMESA member countries is also fueled by the increase of Gross Domestic Product of the country which may reflect money laundering and a high return for investment in the foreign country particularly in advanced countries. Furthermore the study found that budget deficit has a negative impact on capital flight which may reflect that corrupted government officials are the main actors of capital flight from COMESA member countries. The study suggested the need for the policy makers to adopt an investment policy which doesn’t discriminate foreign investor from the domestic investors, adjusting the domestic interest rate in accordance with the international market and apply tight control on corrupted government officials to repatriate capital flight from COMESA member countries.
Macroeconomic Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Ethiopia: (A Time Series Analysis)
(Addis Ababa University, 2016-06) Fantaye, Yonas; Tufa, Adane (PhD)
This paper gives an analysis on Macroeconomic determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Ethiopia based on a time series data using the period from 1982 to 2014G.C. It is also examines the trend of FDI inflows to the country. The study also discusses why Ethiopia is conducive for Foreign Direct Investment and the area of opportunity. In order to point out the main macro level factors that can highly affect the inflow of FDI in Ethiopia and to know how much these factors affect FDI leading to an oscillating trend. The study took the macro level data in Ethiopia, such as, infrastructure development, potential economic growth, macroeconomic stability, human capital development and Trade openness. In addition, the study gives an extensive account to the theoretical explanation of FDI based on both macro and micro perspectives. Findings show that, in the long run explanatory variable such as infrastructure development, potential economic growth and Trade openness are found positively related and statistically significant while Inflation Rate and Human Capital (illiteracy level) are negatively related and statistically significant. Its parallel with the hypothesis of growing economy attracts more FDI and higher illiteracy level hampers FDI inflows. On the other hand, in the short run tele per 100, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, Openness and Potential Economic Growth become negatively related and they are statistically insignificant where as illiteracy rate and inflation are positively related and statistically significant. . In general, the major implication of this study is that, in Ethiopia foreign direct investment is more determined by sufficient infrastructural activities, higher economic growth, and macroeconomic stability, educated human capital and unrestricted trade in the long run. Hence, in order to increase the inflow of FDI, it is very crucial to concentrate on the mentioned macro economic sectors.
Analysis of Households’ Preferences For improved Solid Waste Management in Adama Town: Application of Choice Modeling
(Addis Ababa University, 2010-11) Berihun, Yonas; Alemu, Tekie (PhD)
In recent years, the generation of solid waste is increasing in Adama town due to rapid urbanization and population growth. Currently, out of the total waste generated in the town about 50-60 % is properly collected and disposed. The remaining amount of the waste is disposed on open spaces, streets and drainage channels along roadsides of the town. This uncollected solid waste in many places of the town may have serious adverse effect on public health and environmental quality. Moreover, the formal dumpsite, located some 8 km away from the center of the town, does not appear to have proper measures to control runoffs from rain fall. Thus, conducting a study on the demand for improved solid waste collection and disposal services is essential. The principal objective of this study is to analyze households’ preferences for improved solid waste management in Adama town. Different solid waste management options are defined by the service attributes of frequency of waste collection from households, separation of waste at source, pollution control measures at the dumpsite and monthly service charge. The study employed the choice modeling technique, which is a stated preference method for the valuation of non-marketed environmental goods and services. The survey was administered on a random sample of 188 households in the town. The data was analyzed using Multinomial Logit and Random Parameter Logit models. The results of the study revealed that improvement in the levels of all the non-monetary attributes of the service increase the utility of respondents. In addition, households with higher monthly total income, larger family size, as well as respondents with higher levels of education favor the improved plans of solid waste management more frequently. Furthermore, households have a positive willingness to pay for improvement in the level of each non-monetary attribute. In conclusion, households in Adama town are willing to pay for improved solid waste collection and disposal services. The implication is that any policy directed towards the provision of effective solid waste management in the town should incorporate demand side information.
An Empirical Time Series Analysis on the Determinants of Gross National Saving in Ethiopia: ARDL Approach to Co-Integration
(Addis Ababa University, 2014-06) Ghebru, Yohannes; Guta, Fantu (PhD)
The objective of this paper was to investigate the macroeconomic determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia using time series annual data form 1970/71-2010/11. In this study, effort has been made to identify the long run and short run determinants of national saving in Ethiopia using an ARDL bounds testing approach and ECM to capture both short run and long run relationships. Estimated results revealed that financial development (FD) and Current account deficit (CAD) are significant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. But gross national disposable income (LGNDI), dependency ratio (DR), budget deficit (BD) and inflation, approximated by consumer price index (CPI), found to be statistically insignificant determinants of gross national saving in Ethiopia in the long run. However, in the short run, except consumer price index (CPI) and dependency ratio (DR) the rest of the explanatory variables such as gross national disposable income (LGNDI), financial development (FD), current account deficit (CAD) and budget deficit (BD) found to have statistically significant meaning in explaining gross national saving in Ethiopia. The speed of adjustment has value 0.66978 with negative sign, which showed the convergence of saving model towards long run equilibrium. The overall findings of the study underlined the importance of raising the level of income in a sustainable manner, minimizing the adverse impacts of budget deficit and inflation rate and creating competitive environment in the financial sector.
Financial Development And Economic Growth Revisited: Evidence from the Case of Selected Sub-Sahara African Countries
(Addis Ababa University, 2016-06) Getachew, Yohannes; T., Adane (PhD)
The finance – growth nexus, though it is well-entrenched in the academic discourse and no consensus is reached, still begs for updating through revisiting the issue using recent data. With this motivation, this paper has attempted to achieve two paramount objectives: examining the effect of economic growth on the development of the financial system and investigating the effect of other variables which were presumed and simultaneously supported by substantial body of literature to have significant effect on economic growth; a case from 20 selected sub-Sahara African region. Pertaining to this, first using annual data of 20 selected sub-Sahara African countries were collected and transformed in to five years averaged longitudinal data form, we applied multilevel mixed effects regressions (MMER). The results from the mixed effect regression revealed that, there is a significant and positive effect of economic growth, geographic location allotting sea door, macroeconomic stability, investment and domestic savings. On the contrary, negative relationship was observed between foreign legal system origination and financial development. The evidence under the probe on the effect of demographic situations have two effects comprising both direct relationship with financial depth and indirect effects on the efficiency of the financial system. Finally this paper has ended up suggesting further detailed research on the effects of demographic situations on financial development; additionally to examine the finance growth nexus and give microeconomic evidence. Key words: financial depth, efficiency of financial system, economic growth, multilevel mixed effect regression, microeconomic evidence.
The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-05) Birara, Yohannes; Esthepanos, Girma (PhD)
Developing countries in general and Ethiopia in particular has been experiencing huge amount of saving gap, trade gap and fiscal gap for more than four decades. Consequently, there has been a significant net inflow of official development assistance (foreign aid). Therefore, the main objective of the study is to examine the impact of foreign aid on economic growth and the transmission mechanisms (i.e. investment, import and government consumption expenditure) of Ethiopia using Johansson maximum likelihood approach over the period of 1970/1 to 2008/9. The co integration test result indicates the existence of long run relationship among the variables entered in all models. In the long run foreign aid has a positive and significant impact on growth through its significant contribution to investment and import. However, the dynamic short run model points out that aid to have a significant impact on growth it has to be assisted by good monetary, fiscal and trade policy. In addition, in the short run aid has significant impact on government consumption expenditure, which confirms the existence of aid fungibility. The study also confirms the existence of debt overhang problem in the Ethiopian economy. Generally, the theoretical view of the gap models is proven in this study. Aid can enhance growth by financing the three gaps. However to mitigate the problems with aid fungibility and debt overhang problem, foreign aid has to be linked to a good policy framework.
The Value of Improved Water Supply Service in Motta Town,East Gojjam,Ethiopia:Application of Contingent Valuation Method (CVM)
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Bantie, Yibeltal; Mekonnen, Alemu (PhD)
Adequate quality, safe and affordable supply of drinking water is a basic need for human life. However, many people in LDCs are lacking this safe and quality water. Since Ethiopia is one of these LDCs its urban and rural area population do not have access to such attributes of water. Therefore adequacy and quality are crucial for household water supply. In this study the CVM was used to analyze the determinants of households’ WTP for improved water services by applying the doublebounded dichotomous choice value elicitation format. The study used cross-sectional data collected from 220 randomly selected sampled households from Motta town. The CV survey responses were analyzed through descriptive and econometric analysis using probit, bi- variate probit and Tobit as empirical models. The CV survey results revealed that 199 (96.6%) of the respondents were willing to pay a positive amount for improved water services. Thus if the proposed water improvement scheme is implemented, in addition to satisfying the water needs of the households, the town’s utility management can collect more revenue from the sale of improved water. The CV survey results also show that the mean WTP of households for the proposed improved water service is between 19.2 cents and 25.83 cents depending on the method used. The total WTP amount from the total of 10,898 households in Motta town was founded to be birr 8,198.2 per day or birr 2,992,343 per year which is much higher than the current total revenue of birr 475,325 collected by the utility management . The results from the test statistics show that existing source of water, initial bid offered to households, age of the respondents, sex of the respondents and responsible organ for the provision of improved water services have a negative effect on the probability of households’ WTP for improved water services in the probit model and at the same time they have also a negative influence on the maximum amount they are willing to pay in the tobit model. On the other hand education (both primary, secondary and tertiary), income, wealth, quality of water being used, reliability of the existing service, years of stay in the town, time taken to fetch water from the existing source and level of satisfaction with the existing service are affecting positively the probability of accepting the initial bid offered to them for improved water service and the maximum amount that they are willing to pay. Therefore the policy makers need to take in to consideration these socio-economic and demographic factors and some other attributes of water in designing the improved water supply system of the town. Key Words: Willingness to pay, Contingent valuation method, Improved Water Service.
The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) And Counter Fiscal Policy Measures For Ethiopia: A Recursive Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
(Addis Ababa University, 2012-06) Darsene, Yewbdar
As a Growth and Transformation Plan (GTP), the Ethiopian government has planned to conclude the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with European Union (EU) and joining Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa- Free Trade Area (COMESA-FTA). Thus, in the study we have shown endeavour to examine the economy-wide effects of concluding those agreements. To attain the stated objectives, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is used as an important analytical tool. As a main data base the model is calibrated with an updated version of 2005/06 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). There were three individual and two combined simulations. According to the simulation results, following tariff reduction, with exception of investment and government income, almost all of the macroeconomic indicators, sectoral output and welfare indicators have shown improvement. Similarly, in the combined simulation, tariff reduction and direct tax rate adjustment, though the percentage of improvement is lower for some variables all of the variables have recorded a positive change. Unlike the above simulations, the simulation combining tariff reduction together with sales tax rate adjustment has shown a negative change in some of macroeconomic indicators, sectoral output and welfare indicators. In concluding, in those simulations which included sales tax rate adjustment has brought adverse effect on most of the economic variables. Therefore, from the welfare point of view, the implication of our study is that, comparing the two compensating measures, it is beneficial to apply direct tax rate adjustment together with tariff reduction.
The Impact of African Growth and Opportunity Act on Sub-Saharan Africa Countries’ Export to the United States of America
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Admasu, Yeshwas; Geda, Alemayehu (PhD)
The African growth and opportunistic act (AGOA) is a US initiative which provides preferential access to Africa’s product in US market since its enactment in 2000. This thesis seeks to assess the impact of AGOA on SSA countries total export to US. For this purpose, a dynamic panel data gravity model with endogenous explanatory variable is used and the generalized method of moment estimators is employed. The estimation is conducted for a panel of 33 AGOA eligible SSA countries over a period of nine years (from 2001 to 2009). The result shows a positive and significant effect of AGOA on overall export of SSA countries to US, but the coefficient is not different from zero. Therefore, the Act is essential for SSA long-term economic growth and poverty reduction. This study recommends the elimination of demand side constraints as well as targeting on the agricultural sector and extending the Act beyond 2015. Keywords: AGOA, Dynamic Panel Data, Export of SSA, Gravity model, GMM estimators, preferential access, and Sub-Saharan Africa and United States
Potential Market Structure, Competition, Liberalization and Trade in Services after Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs): The Case of Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2010-06) Fisseha, Yemesrach; Estifanos, Girma (PhD)
The conception of market led international trade as a means to mutual benefits for all engaged bodies is a truth rooted in the invisible hand notion of Adam Smith (1776). Carrying on this 18th century factual understanding of free trade and aiming at realizing the full benefits of international trade, regional and international agreements and negotiations are underway to reduce and eventually eliminate restrictions on free functioning of markets. Among these, Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) being negotiated between EU and ACP countries are comprehensive accords attempting to promote free workings of markets. Beyond the common tariff and quota-free understanding of free trade, EPAs include provisions on investment and trade in services with an ultimate aim of creating market-led service industries. As an economy negotiating EPA with EU, potential outcomes of the agreement on the Ethiopian service industries call for assessment. In this regard, this study examines the potential post-EPA competition, trade and investment in three fundamental but restricted service industries of the Ethiopian economy. Based on reviews of CARIFORUM (sates that have completed EPA negotiations) experiences, EPA service provisions, the service industry structures and regulatory framework of the industries in Ethiopia; findings of the study reveal that, aligned with the objective of EPAs, the telecommunications, finance and maritime transport industries of Ethiopia would move towards a competitive industry structure, trade and liberalization for investments in the post-EPA future.

Browse

Recent Submissions