Econometrics

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The Impacts of Women's Education on Elements of Reproductive Health and Governance
(A.A.U, 2000-05) Assefa, Daniel; Yoseph, Getachew
The driving argument for conducting this study has come out of the belief that there are multifaceted benefits to investments in education other than the conventional private returns calculation earning differentials. among a wide range of variables that education can presumably exert effects upon, two elements of reproductive health and one element of governance were considered in this study. More specifically this study has committed itself to the investigation of the impacts of education on fertility, contraceptive use and political participation of women. by making use of a primary data from a survey on 1002 women of reproductive age living in urban sides of Addis Ababa and debre berhan estimations were made. the results show that generally education reduced fertility, raised contraception and positively contributed to the political participation of women. It was also proved that as opposed to the conventional wisdom that primary education is enough to exert such influences on t fettility and contraception, the findings showed at least a completion of grade eight schooling was required. /I was also found out that it was women's education and not husband's education that resulted in significant effects on all the three variables. Lastly, most of education's impact especially on fertility came about through the delaying of age at marriage.
Exports and Economic Growth in Ethiopia: an Empirical Investigation
(Addis Ababa University, 2002-06) Gemechu, Debel; Estifanos, Girma (PhD)
This study investigated the effect of exports on economic growth in Ethiopia for the period 1960/61-2000/01. The study aimed to review the policies undertaken by the different regimes in relation to export policies, and to empirically test the relationship between exports and economic growth using different techniques. In addition, attempts were also made to examine the supply (structural) constraints to export growth in Ethiopia. To test the export-economic growth relationship, in addition to using the frameworks that have been followed by most of the previous studies, an extension to the previous studies was made by introducing cointegration and error correction approaches in the regression analysis. Furthermore, a simultaneous equation model and the Granger causality test were conducted to examine the indirect effects of export on economic growth and to address a possible simultaneity problem that may arise because of the correlation between export and economic growth. The results from the cointegration and error correction models revealed that export significantly affected economic growth in the short run. In addition to its direct effect, export is also found to indirectly affect economic growth as evidenced from the simultaneous equation models. Furthermore, the causality test conducted indicated that causality runs from exports to economic growth. The key finding in this study is that export growth positively and significantly affected economic growth and the result is not sensitive to the methodologies used.
An Empirical Investigation of the Aid - Growth Relationship in Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2003-07) Tefera, Wondwosen; Ageba, Gebrehiwot (PhD)
The objective of this study is to assess the relationship between aid, policies and economic growth in Ethiopia for the period 1962/63 to 2001/02. The analysis is conducted using the Johansen Maximum Likelihood Procedure. The main findings of the empirical investigation are: Foreign aid has a significant positive contribution to investment, whereas uncertainty of aid flow (as a result of aid volatility) significantly and negatively affects the capital formation activity. The effect of foreign aid on economic growth appeared negative but insignificant. Aid interacted policy term, on the other hand, produced significantly positive result. The result further points out that good economic policies increase the level of foreign aid that can be productively consumed. The Error Correction Model (ECM) conclude that foreign aid is insignificant in the short run. Furthermore, the causality test shows that the causality runs from policies to foreign aid while the converse does not hold.
Human Capital and Economic Growth in Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2006-07) Kifle, Wubet; Mulat, Teshome (Associate Professor)
This study investigates the impact of human capital on economic growth in Ethiopia over the period 1971-2005 using an error-correction methodology. Contrary to microeconomic studies, the macroeconomic evidence from this study shows that the human capital variable in the form of schooling has an insignificant impact on the level of output. Various analyses are provided in this respect. The deteriorating quality of education in the wake of significant expansion in the sector is an important element that puts into question the basic framework that education provides students with growth enhancing skills. Schooling might not actually be creating the required skills or raising worker’s productivity. Besides, in the wake of a stagnant demand for labor, a rise in the supply of educated labor could only lead to a decline in the returns. The study also questions the impacts of the economic policy directions and associated institutional settings, which could have been perverting the contribution to economic growth that would have been made from an expansion in educational investment. The key economic policy implication that comes out of this result is that the provision of schooling should be geared towards achieving broader socio economic goals with special emphasis on quality. Simply providing more schooling may yield little or nothing in the way of economic growth in the absence of other elements such as the appropriate market and governmental institutions and suitable policy environment in the labor market and other sectors of the economy to support a functioning modern economy. Schooling by itself is not a sufficient engine of growth.
The Growth of Industrial Manufacturing in Ethiopia and its Contribution to GDP
(Addis Ababa University, 2007-03) Rissa, Urgaia; Barr, Tavis (PhD)
This paper analyses growth of Industrial Manufacturing in Ethiopia and its contribution to GDP over the past 4 and 3/10th decades. In general, industrialization plays an important role in economic development. In this regard, the manufacturing sector plays the key role in growth process. Despite the importance of industrialization in Sustainable Economic Growth, the sector has encountered with a serous growth problem that leads to insignificant contribution to GDP, due to financial constraint, shortage of supply raw materials and lack of skilled manpower. The general objective of this study is to examine the growth of the sector and its contribution to GDP, using Secondary data from the NBE and C.S.A, which covers 43 years. The study employs the methodology of Johansen cointegration analysis of Econometric Time- series models. To identify the effect of various factors determining the growth of the sector, the FIML procedures are employed instead of OLS or 2SLS regressions, because it provides a worthwhile measure to generate more efficient and effective estimates that explain the relationships. These techniques are used to validate the theoretical assertion that there is one cointegrating relations in this study. The analysis indicates that the long-term growth rate of investment is positively related to the weight placed on growth of the sector and is playing significant role in expanding its activities. While that of labor engaged in production, is the short-run effect and hence, the sector is characterized as labor intensive. In the meantime, the sector growth is negatively influenced by total factors of production that represent the obsolete uses technological level in manufacturing activities accounts for the sector’s stagnant growth. That is why the overall growth rate of sector is negligible, only about 0.24 percent per annum. In terms of contribution, the share of the sector accounts about 6 percent to GDP. That is, almost about 1/11th of Agriculture and 1/6th of Service sector, on average since 1962. From these analyses, therefore, it would be probably drawn that the growth and the role of industrial sector in Ethiopian economy is insignificant, implies, the level of industrialization is very low. Thus, the policymakers would focus on the implications of this paper to mitigate the problem and achieve the designed goal of Sustainable Economic Growth.Keyword: Manufacturing growth, contribution to GDP and cointegration analysis.
Estimating Household Energy Demand of Rural Ethiopia Using an Almost Ideal Demand System (Aids)
(Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Diriba, Dawit; Yesuf, Mahmud (PhD)
The paper attempts to estimate household energy demand (fuel choice) using panel data for different sources of energy consumption. The study contributes to the contemporary literature a coherent view of energy demand (fuel choice) in rural setup. The result of the finding suggests that as household’s total expenditure rises, fuel option widens and fuel mix may change. They respond by increasing the number of the fuel they use exhibiting fuel stacking (multiple fuel use) behavior but traditional/inferior fuels are rarely entirely excluded from household energy mix. It also suggests that households do not simply substitute one fuel for another due only to income or expenditure increases, rather diversify their fuel consumption in a process of fuel stacking. To envisage this issue deeply the study used econometric tool of the linear approximation almost ideal demand system (LAAIDS) with normalized prices to compute expenditure elasticities and the multinomial logit model of household fuel choice behavior. The fuel stacking (energy mix) model is based on the fact that in any point in time, rural households use multiple sources of energy. Households make inter fuel switch and inter fuel substitution in optimizing their energy mix by adopting multiple fuel use (fuel stacking) strategy in response to income or expenditure change; rather than completely transiting to consumption of new fuels as the energy ladder hypothesis suggests. To prove this, we computed the expenditure or income elasticities of demand for inferior fuels and advanced fuels. The result of the study, that demand is expenditure elastic for advanced fuels and expenditure inelastic for inferior fuels provides solid and consistent argument/evidence to the economic literature that despite the income constraints, households prefer the normal good (advanced fuels) to the inferior goods (traditional fuels). Furthermore, the study used multinomial logit estimate of the determinants of household choice between inferior fuels, advanced fuels and mix of the two fuels to scrutinize the fuel stacking(multiple fuel use) behavior of households in the energy mix model. Our result indicates that household’s total expenditure, the fact that the household is female headed, total land owned by household (holding size), total number of livestock owned by household and family size square as predictor have positive coefficients of parameter estimate. This implies that the likelihood of household’s choosing traditional/inferior fuels or mix of inferior and advanced fuels (except total number of livestock owned) away from advanced fuels increases with increment in these predictors. However, family size, education of household head, age of household head, time spent on fuel collection and expenditure on advanced fuels have negative parameter estimates. This indicates that it is less likely that households choose inferior fuel or mix of inferior and advanced fuels compared to advanced fuel with increase in these variables as predictors. Our result indicates that fuel stacking or multiple fuel use is a more applicable hypothesis for rural households of Ethiopia than the simplistic energy ladder hypothesis. In rural areas, however, energy choice of household is constrained by lack of access to commercial fuels, energy using equipments and appliances, energy supply dependency and affordability as well as consumer preferences and tastes. Therefore, rural households have less potential for fuel switching due to the aforementioned factors and the existence of fuel wood which is gathered without any financial payment.
The Determinant of Aggregate Import Demand in Ethiopia: Co Integration Analysis.
(Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Otoro, Wubshet; Kassie, Minale (PhD)
In this paper, the determinant of Ethiopia aggregate demand is studies using yearly data in the period 1971/2 to 2006/7. The main objective of the paper is to identify the main determinant of Ethiopia import and the relative elasticity of explanatory variables. The augmented dickey fuller and Phillips Peron test is used to test the unit root test. Johansen co integration and error correction model is employed on yearly data in order to approve the existence of long run relationship and to identify the long run and short run relationship. The main finding is that, in the long run Ethiopia import is mainly affected by real effective exchange rate, real gross domestic product and relative price. It shows elastic import demand with respect to explanatory variables except relative price. The sign of real effective exchange rate is unexpected in the long run. The short run adjustment coefficient is identified and has a correct negative sign; however, most of the coefficients of short run variables are statistically insignificant. The implication of the finding is that, ineffectiveness exchange rate policy in the long run, effectiveness of pricing policy and difficulty of substituting imported goods by domestic product.
The Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth in Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2008-06) Michael, Yemane; Alemu, Tekie (PhD)
It is widely believed that moderate and stable inflation rates promote the development process of a country, and hence economic growth. Moderate inflation supplements the return to savers, enhances investment, and therefore, accelerates economic growth of the country. This paper empirically explores the present relationship between inflation and economic growth in the context of Ethiopia. Using annual date set on real GDP and CPI as well as other variables, for the period 1971 to 2006, an assessment of the empirical evidence has been acquired through the co-integration and error correlation models. Furthermore, it explores an interesting policy issue of what is the threshold level of inflation for the economy. The empirical evidence demonstrates that there exists a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between inflation and economic growth for Ethiopia as indicated by a statistically significant long-run negative relationship between CPI and real GDP. In addition, the estimated threshold model suggests 16 percent as the threshold level (i.e., structural breakpoint) of inflation above which inflation adversely affects economic growth. These results have important policy implications for both domestic policy makers and the development partners working in the country.
Economic Growth, Capital Accumulation and Stability in Ethiopia.
(A.A.U, 2008-07) Gebremedhin, Zelalem; Estiphanos, Girma (D)
This study tries to investigate the impact of capital accumulation and macro stability on economic growth of Ethiopia taking a series of data range from 1971 to 2006. result of co-integration test using Johanson likelihood approach indicates that all explanatory variables which are entered in the model form long-run equilibrium. the study is also conducted test for weak exogeneity and test for zero restrictions on co-integrating vectors to determine causality relationship and level of significance among equilibrium established variables. the result indicated that real GDP positively and strongly associated with physical capital, but negatively and significantly with budget deficit and political instabilities. The- '"" study could not find strong evidence which supports the existence of macro instability in the long-run other than short-run impact. The existence of war as indicator of political instability, adversely affects real GDP both in the long-run and short-run. In Ethiopia context, physical capital is found to be more important than human capital probably due to lesser human capital are accumulated in the stock.
Determinants of Profitability in Domestic Banking Markets: - Implications of Foreign Bank Entry.
(Addis Ababa University, 2008-07) Sabir, Nasir; Tesfaye, Mekuria (PhD)
A policy of openness of the domestic banking markets to international bank participation is not a universally accepted argument. While arguments in favor of foreign bank entry are argued to be broad based, there exist a set of concerns with regard to the potentially adverse effects of opening to international involvement. But neither side of these arguments is supported by hard evidence. This paper in the first place attempts to investigate what the determinants of profitability in domestic banking markets are. Afterwards, the implications of foreign bank entry to the profitability of the domestic sector will be analyzed based on the lessons taught from the experiences of the selected East African countries. In order to attempt its objectives the paper employs a dynamic econometric model, which captures the extent of barriers to entry on the profitability of the local sector through the coefficient of the lagged dependent variable (lagged profit). The problem of inconsistency and bias of OLS estimators is handled by application of the Arellano and Bover(1995) GMM estimation method. This method exploits the orthogonality condition that exists between lagged levels and differences in the difference equation and that of instruments of lagged differences and the levels in the original equation. Accordingly, it is found that bank specific variables like equity to total assets, customer and short term funding to total assets, and productivity are highly significant determinants of profitability while the credit risk to total loans and overheads to total assets, though not that significant, they do have an inverse relationship with bank profitability. Furthermore, both the industry specific variables and the macro economic variables are found to be significant determinants. The coefficient of the lagged dependent variable also indicates that the Ethiopian Commercial banking market is not characterized by competitive conditions and profits show a tendency to persist from one year to the other. This implies that, entry of foreign banks will reduce the profitability of the local Commercial banks as international banks exploit their competitive advantages and as they internalize the economic benefit of the knowledge they created, possibly subjecting domestic banks to operate at a reduced rate of return where the issue of their survival may be put in to question. Conclusively, since most of these determinants are highly affected by the quality of management either through its direct or indirect influence, it can be suggested that optimal policies to bank management is the right direction to follow in order to spur progress. Keywords; Bank Profitability, Foreign Bank entry, Bank management, Dynamic panel model, GMM.
Determinants of Cut-Flower Export Supply of Ethiopia: A Panel Data Evidence
(A.A.U, 2009-06) Getachew, Virga Belete; Dr. Girma, Estiphanos
This study generally aims at investigating the basic factors behind the recent pelformance of Ethiopian cut-flower exports. Efforts are made to check whether factors of production and market and sector-specific incentives affect export supply, and to compute short-run and longrun elasticities. A one way error-component panel data model, based on data of 33 exporting farms from 2005 through 2008, is estimated. Random-, fixed- and between-effects estimators are fit to respectively capture over-all, short-run and long-run determinants and elasticities. The descriptive analysis shows that the recent growth of Ethiopia 's cut-flower exports is notable and can be explained by farms' use of more land under greenhouse cover. The econometric estimations generally reveal that both price and non-price factors explain cut-flower export supply. Land under greenhouse cover is found a strong determinant in all of our estimations. Infrastructure and transportation costs in the short-run and real exchange rates and hired labor in the long-run are additional important factors. All in all, cut-flower export supply is determined significantly by relative prices, land, labor, sector-specific infrastructure and unit costs of transporting flowers to major international markets. Being a foreign investor and association membership do not significantly affect export supply. Coefficients are found elastic for land, infrastructure and transportation costs, and inelastic for others. The results call forth strong efforts to fight inflation; reasonable worker payment, safety and training; continual follow-up of farms for effective and sustainable land use; and adequate infrastructural development.
Poverty, Access to Finance and Markets in Rural Ethiopia: Empirical Evidence from Coffee Growing Households
(A.A.U, 2009-06) Getachew, Ahmed Abegaz; Dejene, Aredo (PhD)
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Potential Market Structure, Competition, Liberalization and Trade in Services after Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs): The Case of Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2010-06) Fisseha, Yemesrach; Estifanos, Girma (PhD)
The conception of market led international trade as a means to mutual benefits for all engaged bodies is a truth rooted in the invisible hand notion of Adam Smith (1776). Carrying on this 18th century factual understanding of free trade and aiming at realizing the full benefits of international trade, regional and international agreements and negotiations are underway to reduce and eventually eliminate restrictions on free functioning of markets. Among these, Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) being negotiated between EU and ACP countries are comprehensive accords attempting to promote free workings of markets. Beyond the common tariff and quota-free understanding of free trade, EPAs include provisions on investment and trade in services with an ultimate aim of creating market-led service industries. As an economy negotiating EPA with EU, potential outcomes of the agreement on the Ethiopian service industries call for assessment. In this regard, this study examines the potential post-EPA competition, trade and investment in three fundamental but restricted service industries of the Ethiopian economy. Based on reviews of CARIFORUM (sates that have completed EPA negotiations) experiences, EPA service provisions, the service industry structures and regulatory framework of the industries in Ethiopia; findings of the study reveal that, aligned with the objective of EPAs, the telecommunications, finance and maritime transport industries of Ethiopia would move towards a competitive industry structure, trade and liberalization for investments in the post-EPA future.
Economic Impact and Determinants of Export: The Case of Ethiopian Textile and Apparel Industry
(Addis Ababa University, 2010-06) Mesfin, Yared; Mulat, Teshome (PhD)
Ethiopian industrial development policy has put the textile and apparel industry on the forefront position to accelerate the country‟s industrialization process. The availability of huge labour force, the utilization of abundant raw material , the growing demand of this industry‟s product (as the basic human need) and the international goodwill to provide preferential and differential market access to this industry help the sector to play a significant role on the development of the country‟s economy and on mitigation of poverty. This paper examines the economic impact of textile and apparel industry, the utilization of preferential and differential market access and the determinants of the export performance. The descriptive analysis covers the period 1999 to 2009. The result of the descriptive analysis reveals that the economic impact and the preferential market utilization of the textile and apparel industry are very limited. The time series econometric analysis covering the period 1971/72 to 2008/09 employed Eviews 5 (a computer program as a tool for econometric analysis). The econometric analysis result shows that labour cost and trade openness (liberalization) have positive impact on the export performance of the sector, whereas cotton export and exchange rate have negative impact. As this study tries to indicate, the government supports only those who engage themselves on export market. However, this is not satisfactory and successful for the sector‟s development. So one of the major conclusions of this study is that unless the government revises its policy direction towards developing and supporting the sector (boost the sector investments), the current “artificial” export growth of the industry will be short-lived and ultimately results in unsustainable export growth.
Analysis of Households’ Preferences For improved Solid Waste Management in Adama Town: Application of Choice Modeling
(Addis Ababa University, 2010-11) Berihun, Yonas; Alemu, Tekie (PhD)
In recent years, the generation of solid waste is increasing in Adama town due to rapid urbanization and population growth. Currently, out of the total waste generated in the town about 50-60 % is properly collected and disposed. The remaining amount of the waste is disposed on open spaces, streets and drainage channels along roadsides of the town. This uncollected solid waste in many places of the town may have serious adverse effect on public health and environmental quality. Moreover, the formal dumpsite, located some 8 km away from the center of the town, does not appear to have proper measures to control runoffs from rain fall. Thus, conducting a study on the demand for improved solid waste collection and disposal services is essential. The principal objective of this study is to analyze households’ preferences for improved solid waste management in Adama town. Different solid waste management options are defined by the service attributes of frequency of waste collection from households, separation of waste at source, pollution control measures at the dumpsite and monthly service charge. The study employed the choice modeling technique, which is a stated preference method for the valuation of non-marketed environmental goods and services. The survey was administered on a random sample of 188 households in the town. The data was analyzed using Multinomial Logit and Random Parameter Logit models. The results of the study revealed that improvement in the levels of all the non-monetary attributes of the service increase the utility of respondents. In addition, households with higher monthly total income, larger family size, as well as respondents with higher levels of education favor the improved plans of solid waste management more frequently. Furthermore, households have a positive willingness to pay for improvement in the level of each non-monetary attribute. In conclusion, households in Adama town are willing to pay for improved solid waste collection and disposal services. The implication is that any policy directed towards the provision of effective solid waste management in the town should incorporate demand side information.
The Impact of Education on Farm and Off-Farm Income in Rural Households of Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-05) Mekonnen, Yalew; Bezu, Sosina (PhD)
This study analyses the impact of education on farm and off- farm income of rural households of Ethiopia. The study is conducted to analyze how education of the household affects the labor allocation and hence the income of the rural households of Ethiopia. Farm household model is constructed to see how farm households allocate their time to farm and off-farm activities. The Seventh round Ethiopian Rural Household Survey data, collected by the School of Economics, Addis Ababa University, in collaboration with other organizations is used for analysis. The labor allocation of the households in to farm and off- farm activities is affected by average education of the household. In addition the household head’s education alone also affects labor allocation of the household. As the households get more education, they reduce labor supply to farm and increase it to off-farm wage employment. The effect of education goes beyond determining labor allocation; it also affects farm and off--farm income. Even though education reduces labor allocation to farm, its overall effect on farm income is positive. This finding suggests that expanding education in rural increases farm income, though it reduces on farm labor supply. Therefore, expansion of education in rural Ethiopia is important to improve farm income and alleviate poverty.
The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflows on Economic Growth, Savings, and Investment in Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-05) Wubu, Wondwesen; Geda, Alemayehu (PhD)
This study analyzes the effect of Foreign Capital Inflow (FCI) on the economic growth, saving and investment in Ethiopia for the period 1974/75 to 2008/09. Empirical analysis has been performed by using Johansen Maximum likelihood method. The main result shows that foreign aid has a significant and positive effect on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. It has also positive and statistically significant effect on investment in the long run. However, aid has insignificant and negative effect on saving in the long run while it has significantly negative influence in the short run. The net FDI has negative impact on economic growth in both long and short run where as Foreign direct investment has positive and statistically significant effect on saving both in the long and short run. The result further reveals that net FDI has insignificant but positive effect on investment. In the context of policy recommendations, it is clear that aid contributes positively to economic growth both in the long run and short run. So, Ethiopia should focus on aid for the sake of economic growth. In addition, attention should be given in improving the political environment so as to raise the aggregate investment.
The Impact of Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Ethiopia: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-05) Birara, Yohannes; Esthepanos, Girma (PhD)
Developing countries in general and Ethiopia in particular has been experiencing huge amount of saving gap, trade gap and fiscal gap for more than four decades. Consequently, there has been a significant net inflow of official development assistance (foreign aid). Therefore, the main objective of the study is to examine the impact of foreign aid on economic growth and the transmission mechanisms (i.e. investment, import and government consumption expenditure) of Ethiopia using Johansson maximum likelihood approach over the period of 1970/1 to 2008/9. The co integration test result indicates the existence of long run relationship among the variables entered in all models. In the long run foreign aid has a positive and significant impact on growth through its significant contribution to investment and import. However, the dynamic short run model points out that aid to have a significant impact on growth it has to be assisted by good monetary, fiscal and trade policy. In addition, in the short run aid has significant impact on government consumption expenditure, which confirms the existence of aid fungibility. The study also confirms the existence of debt overhang problem in the Ethiopian economy. Generally, the theoretical view of the gap models is proven in this study. Aid can enhance growth by financing the three gaps. However to mitigate the problems with aid fungibility and debt overhang problem, foreign aid has to be linked to a good policy framework.
Determinants of Child Labor and Schooling in Rural Households of Ethiopia
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Wubale, Tseganesh; Mulat, Teshome (Associate Professor)
Ethiopia is characterized by high incidence of child labour and low school enrollment. There is no specialized body with the primary responsibility of mitigating child labour; even worse, the existing legal provisions about child rights are far from implementation in the rural parts of the country where the vast majority of the children reside and where child labour is pervasive. With the objective of investigating factors that determine child labour and schooling the study adopted a more inclusive definition of child work. Using the seventh round Ethiopian Rural Household Survey data the study adopted multinomial logit (MNL) model to estimate child work-schooling outcomes. The results from the empirical analysis suggest that both economic and sociological factors are important determinants of child labour and school attendance in rural Ethiopia. The main findings from the study are the existence of positive and significant association between child work and number of infants and biological relationship to the household head while age and education level of the household head, household size and average schooling level of the community, among others, having significant but negative effect on child work specialization. The major determinants of school attendance include education level of the household head, eqqub membership of household, average schooling level in the peasant association and distance to school. The finding that some of the variables (number of adults, number of infants, access to loan) affect work-school outcomes differently for boys and girls shows the presence of gender bias. From policy perspective, provision of productive and labour saving assets, instituting saving and credit associations and investment in educational infrastructure should deserve essential place in the move to curb child labour and promote school attendance.
The Impact of African Growth and Opportunity Act on Sub-Saharan Africa Countries’ Export to the United States of America
(Addis Ababa University, 2011-06) Admasu, Yeshwas; Geda, Alemayehu (PhD)
The African growth and opportunistic act (AGOA) is a US initiative which provides preferential access to Africa’s product in US market since its enactment in 2000. This thesis seeks to assess the impact of AGOA on SSA countries total export to US. For this purpose, a dynamic panel data gravity model with endogenous explanatory variable is used and the generalized method of moment estimators is employed. The estimation is conducted for a panel of 33 AGOA eligible SSA countries over a period of nine years (from 2001 to 2009). The result shows a positive and significant effect of AGOA on overall export of SSA countries to US, but the coefficient is not different from zero. Therefore, the Act is essential for SSA long-term economic growth and poverty reduction. This study recommends the elimination of demand side constraints as well as targeting on the agricultural sector and extending the Act beyond 2015. Keywords: AGOA, Dynamic Panel Data, Export of SSA, Gravity model, GMM estimators, preferential access, and Sub-Saharan Africa and United States

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