The Drivers, Trends and Effects of Irregular Migration From Ethiopia’s Kembata-Tembaro Zone to South Africa
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Date
2025-02-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
This research aims to analyse the factors, trends, and impacts of irregular migration, with a particular
focus on the Kembata migrant routes leading to the Republic of South Africa. Recent studies indicate a
notable increase in both international and intra-African migration, positioning South Africa as the main
destination for migrants within the region. Nevertheless, the issue of irregular migration to South Africa
has not been extensively studied, despite the rising number of migrants residing there. To fill this gap, this
study employs a concurrent cross-sectional mixed-methods approach to investigate Ethiopian migration
to South Africa. Data has been drawn from household survey (n=659), in-depth interviews (n=24) and
FGDs (n= 6) conducted in 2022. In addition, secondary literatures and legal documents had been desk
reviewed. For the quantitative part, both descriptive and inferential statistical methods were employed.
The data collected through survey questionnaires has been verified, coded, entered and analysed by using
SPSS Version 26. Descriptive statistics had been employed to summarize basic quantitative data, while
inferential statistics, including binary logistic regressions, had been used to examine the factors
influencing households' migration decisions. Descriptive statistics such as mean, frequency, range,
variance and standard deviation were used to show demographic, socio-economic and other relevant
characteristics of the respondents. Binary logistic regression had been used to see households overall
migration decisions. The findings of the study have revealed that being a young male, having a large
household size, the presence of family members, and the availability of smugglers has positively
influenced households' decisions to migrate. Possession of farmland at the places of origin, being
employed and married in ones abode have a negative influence on household decisions for migration. The
study findings have further shown that prior information about the place of destination has an effect on
household’s migration decision. The results of the study have further revealed that migrants have been
using hidden unregulated routes to South Africa since the early 1990s. Limited job opportunities in their
home countries on one side and the presence of strict migration policies on the other side have been
forced the migrants to rely on the service of smugglers for migration. As a result of the dangers
associated with traveling overland, women have increasingly opted for air travel over men. The study
also emphasizes that migration to South Africa is not always permanent, as some migrants eventually
return to their home country. The study suggests that government actions and policy interventions should
be based on such empirical evidence to promote safe and regular migrations while addressing potential
migrants' aspirations and needs in their pursuit of a better life. The results of this study are expected to
contribute to the existing body of knowledge on Ethiopian migration by providing a better understanding
of the complex factors driving irregular migration along the Southern Route.
Key Terms: drivers, patterns, migration policy, irregular routes, Ethiopian diaspora, South Africa
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Keywords
drivers, patterns, migration policy, irregular routes, Ethiopian diaspora, South Africa