United States and Chinese Military Bases in the Horn of Africa: Opportunities and Risks for Ethiopia
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Date
2020-11
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Foreign military bases are usually related to great powers’ foreign policy. It has been used for global supremacy to control important routes to strategic locations, to consolidate might and influence, and to secure vital interests. The rise of China as a global economic power has now ntensifying global powers’ strategic competition mainly with the United States. The plantation of the foreign military bases in the strategic areas of the world is part of the security/military competition of global power strategi competitors. The Horn of Africa has been at the center of global powers’ attention for a long time. This thesis aimed to analyze the risk and opportunity of the establishment of the United States and Chinese military bases in the Horn of Africa for Ethiopia. The study also looked at Ethiopia’s reaction to the issue as well as wider implications of the presence of Chinese and United States military bases for the states of the region.
Depending on the qualitative examination of texts, and semi-structured interviews, the study has identified and analyzed potential opportunities and risks for Ethiopia in security, political, economic, and humanitarian aspects. As an opportunity, the study has found that the presence of the two great powers’ bases in the region can play a stabilizing factor in the region which is national interest and foreign policy goal of Ethiopia. It can enhance Ethiopia’s international trade, creates an enabling environment to attract foreign direct investments, and provide a vast market opportunity for the competing great powers in Ethiopia. It also helps in providing and supporting humanitarian assistance in the times of emergency. As risk, in the security aspect, the
presence of their military bases in the Horn can allow the US and China to conduct a direct or indirect military operation in every corner of Ethiopia, facilitate for intervention, may erode the possibility of designing independent military strategy or security policy, and enable them access Ethiopia’s national secrets easily. Politically, it can promote militarization that may lead to political instability. It may undermine Ethiopia’s strategic importance, its aspiration for regional leadership, and the democratization process. In the economic aspect, it can pose challenges to Ethiopia’s access to port services, and reinforce economic intervention. The study revealed that Ethiopia considers the establishment of foreign military bases in the Horn as an implication of changing geopolitical dynamics of the Horn and global system; and started to take some
initiatives at the national level as a response to deal with new developments in the region. However, according to the study, what determines potential opportunity or risk are the national interests of the US and China in the region or Ethiopia, the extent of their cooperation and competition as well as the internal political dynamics of Ethiopia which is uncertain at present or in the near future. The study also indicates that the presence of their military forces in the Horn has implications of competition, cooperation, and tension among China and the US which could be tied to security/military, geopolitical and geo-economic issues. Thus, can affect the security, political, and diplomatic relations of the states of the region as well as influence the balance of power in the region. Therefore, the study suggests that changing the started initiatives into practice, having a realistic national security policy, the strategic capacity to identify and resolve risks are very important. Focusing on principle-based diplomatic relations; economic diplomacy and the nonaligned foreign policy approach also determine the extent of opportunity
or risk. Likewise, ensuring internal stability and unity as well as working at the regional and continental levels to develop a common and optimal strategy for engagement with external powers will enable Ethiopia to minimize risks and benefits from its opportunities.
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United States and Chinese Military Bases in the Horn of Africa: Opportunities and Risks for Ethiopia