The Demographic Transition, Youth Potential and Development Nexus in Ethiopia: Dividend or Burden?
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Date
2010-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The thes is addresses the demographic tran si tion potential in Ethiopia and the poss ibility
of capturi ng the demographic di vidend observed in some East Asian COllntri es. as well
as. suggests mechan isms to facilitate this possible opportunit y. It is based on the
" Spectrum" Projection Model covering the period from 1994 to 2050. The age structure
of the Ethiopian popu lation has remained chi ld and youth dominated for along time now.
but wi th recent incipient ferti lity decline ex pected to be expedi ting. Ethiopia's
demographic profile wi ll see considerable shift in the nex t four decades.Education and employment indicators witness that despite striking improvements in
primary educat ion and modest decline in unemployment rate past years. there is still huge
unemploymcnt rate and low secondary school enrollment. as well as. wide gender
disparity in both secondary educa tion and formal employment. Proj ecti ons under three
different fertility scenarios re veal that fertility plays multiple roles in boosting Ethiopia to
rcap the clemographic di vidend through; reduci ng population size. changing the age
structure and raising the sta tus of womCn. Thus it will determine Ethiopia's future
development coursc including its prospects of joining Middle Income Countri es. This
requires the government to allocate more funds for family planning sen'ice provision and
diffu sion of small family norm in its development strategy as well as establi shing quality
institution including evalu ati ng the old population poli cy of Ethiopia.Nonethelcss. the demographic dividend is not au tomati c. nor does the window of
opportu nity lasts forever. l-lence it can be reaped if pol icics and programs in countries at
the incipient stages of the demographic transition are focused on the needs, aspi rations
and expectations for a growing bulge of young people. These preconditions. among
ot hers. include training and job crea tion for YOll th. quality and elTicient educational
~ys le lll . agri cu ltural moderni zation and intensifica tion. labor intensive production
technology. healthier li fes tyles, and institutional development s. Under business as usual
scenario. however, the future is bleak and the youth would turn out to be given up
burdens rather than grown up dividend.
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Keywords
Demographic Transition,, Youth Potential