Strategic Scenario-Based Modeling for Optimal Electric Bus Charging Station Deployment in Addis Ababa
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Date
2025-10
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The adoption of electric buses (EBs) is a critical step toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions and advancing sustainable urban mobility. In rapidly growing cities such as Addis Ababa, the deployment of an accessible, strategically planned, and grid compatible charging infrastructure is essential to support large-scale EB integration.
However, the city currently lacks a charging system that aligns with its transport demand patterns, electricity supply characteristics, and renewable energy potential, creating a significant planning gap. This study investigates the spatial and temporal deployment of EB charging stations in Addis Ababa, aiming to ease peak loads, improve charger utilization, and enhance fleet reliability, thus strengthening utility efficiency and supporting sustainable urban mobility. It combines General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS) data and bus fleet characteristics with GIS-based simulation models (GTFS4EV and EV-Fleet-Sim) to estimate travel demand, energy requirements, and charger placement under depot, layover, on-route, and mixed charging strategies. The potential for solar photovoltaic (PV) integration is also assessed to enhance environmental performance and reduce reliance on the grid. Results indicate that each EB has an average daily energy demand of approximately 401 kWh (1.86 kWh/km). By 2030, EB deployment is projected to increase the city’s daily electricity load by 0.8%–2.4% depending on the electrification scenario. Charging strategies strongly influence the spatio-temporal distribution of demand: depot-only charging concentrates load during late-night hours; layover-only charging spreads it across the service day but remains spatially concentrated; and on-route charging disperses demand both spatially and temporally, though with feasibility limitations. Among the examined strategies, a mixed configuration of 47% depot, 27% layover, and 26% on-route offers the best balance between technical feasibility, operational, and cost efficiency. This strategy also shows the highest PV production alignment, achieving up to 40% self-sufficiency with an average energy coverage capability from 18.9% to 57.7% depending on the PV capacities per bus. While focused on Addis Ababa, the findings provide transferable insights for other cities pursuing EB electrification. The study demonstrates that strategic charging deployment integrated with renewable energy can optimize costs, reduce peak loads, and enhance system resilience. By quantifying trade-offs among economic, technical, and environmental objectives, this research offers a practical framework for policymakers and planners to design scalable, sustainable EB charging systems in diverse urban
contexts.
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Keywords
EB charging stations, deployment, GTFS4EV, EV-Fleet-Sim, PV integration.