Econometrics

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Browsing Econometrics by Author "Berhanu, Wassie (PhD)"

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    The Effect of Climate Change Induced Productivity Change On Food Security and Food Market of Ethiopia: CGE Modeling
    (Addis Ababa University, 2012-06) Kebede, Wondmunegn; Berhanu, Wassie (PhD)
    Ethiopia is known as food insufficient country. It depends mainly on its agricultural sector for food production which is rainfall dependent. The performance of this sector has remained low mainly because of recurrent drought inherently happened as a result of climate change. Owing to the variability of the rainfall and temperature in the country, Climate change is anticipated to have an impact on the productivity of the agricultural sector. The thesis is therefore simulates the effect of climate change induced agricultural productivity change on food security and food market of Ethiopia. A recursive dynamic CGE model is used with three climate scenarios (CGCM2, PCM and HadCM3). In the finding, it is revealed that food availability problem is stressed from a decline in per capita food production with negative yield growth elasticity and an increase in food supply price under climate change. In addition, food access problem is also hassled with a reduction in per capita income and per capita food consumption expenditure. In a nutshell, food poverty is intensified from general welfare loss under climate change. The HadCM3 climate projection provides the worst scenario followed by the CGCM2 climate forecasting. It has generalized that climate change will be the main challenge to the future on the food security problem of Ethiopia. Finally, the paper recommended that climate change adaptation is required to create resilience capacity; diversification of the income source for both the rural and urban households and improving the farming technology and practice is suggested. It is also required to expand farm irrigation, develop road infrastructure, establishing efficient climate forecasting and communication technology, and improving market efficiency.