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Statistical Analysis of Correlates of Number of Fatalities per Traffic Accident in Addis Ababa Using Count Data Models
(Addis Abeba university, 2013-11) Abdella, Ahmed; Gotu, Butte(PhD)
Ethiopia is a country with a very large number of traffic accidents and fatality rate, and the share of the city of Addis Ababa is quite big (about 60%). Pedestrians and the disabled, children and the aged in particular, are the major victims of these accidents. The aim of this thesis is to analyze fatal traffic accidents in Addis Ababa and identify factors that contribute to the occurrence of road traffic accidents leading to fatalities. This study applies four count models namely Poisson, negative binomial (NB), zeroinflated Poisson (ZIP), and zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) models to establish the relationship between the number of fatalities per traffic accident and human, environmental, road and vehicle related factors. Data regarding to number of fatalities per traffic accident were obtained from AATCID for a one year period from April 2012-March 2013. Drivers in the age group 18-30 years, the drivers having less than 5 years of experience and those who are employed were highly associated with the number of fatalities per accident. Among vehicle related factors automobile, taximinibuses and vehicles less than five years of service were highly associated with the number of fatalities.