Poverty, Vulnerability and Resilience in Rural Ethiopia: Forward-looking Empirical Analyses for More Effective Policy Interventions
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Date
2018-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
This dissertation investigates the state and determinants of poverty, vulnerability and resilience in rural Ethiopia during 2012-2016 using the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey data. For analysis, the study employed fixed effect model, feasible generalized least square model, factor analysis, structural equation modelling and multivariate probit model to assess the determinants of poverty, vulnerability, resilience capacity dimensions, resilience capacity and coping strategies respectively. The result indicated that poverty and vulnerability are dynamic and prevalent. The observed poverty rate in 2012, 2014 and 2016 are 30%, 36% and 43% respectively. The vulnerability rate also follows in an increasing pattern with 50%, 59%, and 62.4% in 2012, 2014 and 2016 respectively. While education of members, income diversification and distance to market centers are the determinants of both poverty and vulnerability; age, sex and education of head, working household members, social capital, distance to main roads and midland agro ecological location are factors symptomatic to vulnerability only. The study also indicated a difference in resilience capacity & its dimensions over time (2014 was higher than 2012 & 2016). Adaptive capacity and assets are very important dimensions of resilience capacity. Moreover, the study revealed savings; livestock sales; and spiritual help as major coping strategies as well as the type of shocks households faced, literacy, oxen ownership and regional locations as determining factors for households’ choice a particular coping strategy. The implication of the result is that anti-poverty intervention based on observed and expected poverty measurements are important. Anti-poverty policies should be strengthened as a key development agenda of the country more than as it did before. Specifically, policies for the poor and vulnerable households are needed. Moreover, policies aiming at poverty reduction should also consider factors that increase their resilience capacity. This include programs on diversifying household’s livelihood strategies and improving their education, assets and access to essential social services. Above all, resilience oriented development programs with a focus on not only relief transfers in the short-run but also building assets and adaptive capacity of households in the long-run are needed.
Keywords: poverty, vulnerability, resilience, shock, coping strategy, household, region, Ethiopia.