Enhancing Railway Infrastructure Protection through System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis: A Case of the Ethio-Djibouti Railway
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Date
2024-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The railway infrastructure in Ethiopia faces significant threats from natural disasters, human-made destruction, and technical failures. Reports indicate a concerning trend of frequent theft and vandalism incidents targeting critical railway components, which disrupt service, compromise safety, and incur substantial financial losses. This study aims to develop a comprehensive system dynamics model to identify the risks and challenges associated with protecting the Ethio-Djibouti Railway (EDR) infrastructure and propose effective mitigation strategies.
The research employs a mixed-methods approach, combining qualitative and quantitative data gathered through expert interviews, questioners and literature review. A system dynamics model is constructed to capture the key variables and their interrelationships affecting railway infrastructure protection. The model is used to simulate different scenarios and test the effectiveness of interventions.
The findings reveal that the selected Exogenous variables “community empowerment and awareness creation, accidents on domestic animals, and population density” have a great impact on the entire infrastructure security. Those variables are found to be effective in minimizing accidents, train delay time and blockages, and overall infrastructure damage. The study also highlights the impact of population density, where highly populated areas tend to experience increased theft and vandalism, leading to more train delays. In Addition to that this research also recommended and showed in the system dynamics model, Implementing various surveillance mechanisms, such as technology-enabled monitoring, can significantly reduce the incidents of theft and vandalism.
By integrating Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED) principles with system dynamics modeling, this research provides a holistic framework for improving the overall safety and security of the EDR infrastructure. The study's recommendations serve as a valuable resource for future studies, policymakers and railway operators to develop and implement targeted interventions to safeguard railway infrastructure.
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Keywords
System Dynamics, Railway Infrastructure, CPTED, Critical Infrastructure