Dynamics, Spatial Configuration and Modelling of Yegof Forest and its Surrounding Patches, South Wollo, Ethiopia
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Date
2018-06-04
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
This study comprised Land use and Land Cover (LULC), floristic composition and
structural analyses, human forest interaction, and species distribution modelling of
Yegof forest. This study is aimed to investigate the natural dynamics, spatial
configuration and modelling of Yegof forest and its surrounding forest patches. The
LULC maps of the landscape were produce from landsat MSS (1972-12-07), TM
(1986-02-09), and ETM+ (2015-03-10) images. The produced LULC maps were used
to compare the magnitude of fragmentation using selected metrics. For floristic
composition and structural analysis of Yegof forest and its surrounding forest
patches, (Erkis, Harbu, Suki, Harego, Biraro, and Abuli) field data was collected on
164 sampling plots. The land use drivers and the status of the forest resources under
different forest management regimes were identified and evaluated using structured
household questionnaire survey. The current and the likely future distribution range
of Hagenia abyssinica population, flagship species in the forest, were modelled. The
data were analysed using suitable analytical software packages including, R,
Biodiversity Pro, SPSS, MaxEnt, QGIS, DIVA-GIS, and FRAGSTATS. Significant
differences between means and ranks were tested. The result of LULC analysis from
1986 to 2015 showed agriculture land and settlement area increased from 67.26% to
80.08% and from 1.63% to 1.93% in the landscape, respectively. In contrast,
forestland and shrub land had decreased from 11.23% to 8.25% and from 17.83% to
3.35% in the landscape, respectively. The set of ten metrics has revealed that the
forest of Yegof and the surrounding patch forests were experiencing a lesser
fragmentation intensity in the year 1986 than that of 1972 and 2015. This study has
recorded 292 species of vascular plants belonging to 219 genera representing 84
families. The vegetation of the Forests was classified into five, namely Juniperus
procera, Olea europaea subsp. caspidata - Olinia rochetiana, Carissa spinarum -
Euphorbia candelabrum, Nuxia congesta-Myrsine africana and Acacia bervispica-
Dichrostachys cinerea -Acacia seyal community types. The community types were
described with varying degree of species richness, evenness, and diversity. The
elevation and slope qualifies as the best predictor for species composition, while heat
load and landform do not mirror this pattern. Density of tree species in the forests
decreases with increasing DBH and Height classes, which show that the forest is in
the secondary state of development. Fuelwood harvesting is the major cause of
deforestation in the area. Hagenia abyssinica population in the study area is found to
be highly affected by climate change. So that, launching provenance trials in the area
for the selection of highly adaptive individuals under the effects of climate change is
indispensable
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Keywords
Forest Cover Change, Fragmentation, Floristic Forest, Composition, Yegof