Climate Change, Vulnerability and Adaptation of Rural Households in Northwest Ethiopia
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Date
2023-10-01
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Addis Abeba Universty
Abstract
This study analyses local-scale climate variability and trends in northwest Ethiopia, covering
three food-insecure and vulnerable districts: Lay Gaynt, Tach Gaynt, and Simada. We
examined temperature and rainfall data on 4 × 4 km grids. The coefficient of variation and
standardized anomaly index were used to assess rainfall and temperature variability. As a
result, annual and seasonal rainfall show high inter-annual variability, except for Kiremt, which
shows a moderate coefficient of variation. The proportion of negative anomalies ranges from
39% (Lay Gayint) to 65% (Simada) over the observation period. Moreover, trend analysis was
conducted using the Mann-Kendall (MK) and Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) tests. The MK
test for annual rainfall exhibited a significant rising trend for the Lay Gayint and Tach Gayint
districts. The ITA for annual and seasonal rainfall indicated positive trends for Lay Gayint and
Tach Gayint, while negative trends were observed in Simada. The ITA and MK tests showed
similar increasing tendencies in seasonal and annual temperatures. The MK technique revealed
positive patterns in the 28-time series and negative patterns in the 20-time series for monthly,
seasonal, and annual rainfall data, whereas the ITA method revealed positive trends in the 23-
time series and negative trends in the 25-time series. The results of this study are helpful for
local development planning that should consider current and possible future climate patterns.
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Keywords
MK, ITA, Trend, Rainfall, and Temperature, Ethiopia.