The Interdependence that Turned to Convergence of Crises: Deciphering the Impasse of Ethio-Eritrean Conflic
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Date
2019-03
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The intent of the study was to identify the foremost cause of the Ethio-Eritrean conflict, indeed it
bounced directly from the complex background because of „quick-fix‟ alliance of the governing
fronts of TPLF/EPRDF and PFDJ, which later evolved to embark on futile economic ties.
Besides, this thesis explores both the pre and post-civil war relations of the TPLF and EPLF to
show their role in the sudden eruption of the Ethio-Eritrea war 1998. Among the notable
contribution of the study is an economic tie cannot be warranty of peace, rather avail additional
factors for conflict that would otherwise be guided by sincere regulation, accountability,
competent institutions and vigorous political commitments.
An examination of economic ties shades light on the peaceful coexistence of the two regimes, but
culminate in after dissolved the currency union and denied Eritrea from accessing the common
market. Unbearable to the post-exit cost, Eritrea applied military force to change the status quo,
yet Ethiopia emerged determinedly to defend it. The Badme incidence was the convergence of
crises, which fetched diachronically from failed policies (unsettled issues) and coupled
synchronically by the post-exit policy constraints. The economic ties of Ethiopia and Eritrea
including the basic statistics, the political basis, policies and agreements etc. re-examined with
the intent that shade light on conflict nexus interdependence, and to contribute for the ongoing
initiatives if a negotiated peace might draw from economic realm.
A multiple case studies method applied to examine the correlation economic resources, domestic
politics and security, and thereby identify causation, conduct and outcomes of the interstate war.
The Ethio-Eritrea border dispute is rooted in the preceding engagements. Neither the war fought
redresses the longstanding incompatibilities, nor evolved win-win verdicts from the Algiers
peace deal. The management of politics over the years of post-settlement rather added new
challenge for enforcing the rulings, which released on 13, April 2002. The impasse has been
intermeshed: within the political insecurity in each state, lethargic political transformation,
mutual intervention including the proxy conflict, and the alliance effect-Washington‟s global
anti-terrorism war in the Horn of Africa. The impasse became ripe for a rapprochement in June
2018, mainly due to crises of preceding tactics; the perceived risk of continuing with the impasse
mounted high; and the rise of interdependent goals by primary and secondary actors.