Modeling the Conflicts of Crossing Pedestrian With Vehicles in Turning Right at Signalized Intersections
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Date
2019-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
A great number of problems persist in Addis Ababa traffic networks for its huge population. The
high level of conflict between pedestrians and motor vehicles at intersections is one of the most
obvious. It is necessary to study the interaction mechanism of pedestrians and right-turn vehicles
in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. This paper focuses on the development of an empirical model which
describes the interaction of pedestrians and motor vehicles at right turns. Four intersections
have been selected based on crossing pedestrian volume, right turn vehicle volume, location of
crosswalk and right turn vehicle controlling mechanism. Vehicle and pedestrian movement and
conflict data were collected at each camera location during the mid-day (11:00am-2:00pm)
periods.
In this study multiple linear and Poisson regression analysis techniques employed to model the
number of potential conflicts between right turning vehicles and pedestrians. Stepwise modelselection
techniques used to screen out predictors. The selected predictor variables are
pedestrian volume, right turn volume and number of lanes. It has been found that an increase in
right turn vehicle volume significantly affects the number of conflicts more than pedestrian
volume and number of lanes has an inverse relationship with number of conflicts. Also a binary
logistic regression model has been developed for pedestrian yielding decision. The key predictor
variables according to the stepwise regression result are population of pedestrian group, volume
of right turn vehicle, turning speed, Direction of pedestrian and Location of cross walk. The
result showed that pedestrian yielding is less likely to occur as the people in pedestrian group
increases and when the location of cross walk is near to the intersection. Pedestrian yielding is
more likely to occur as right turn vehicle volume increases, right turn vehicle turning speed
increases and when pedestrian crosses from near side to far side. The results from this analysis
can be used in order to evaluate signalized intersections with respect to the risk they impose on
pedestrians.
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Keywords
pedestrian, right turn vehicle, traffic conflict, conflict area, regression model, signalized intersection