Modeling the Impact of Climate Adaptation Policy on Major Crop Production: a System Dynamics Approach
| dc.contributor.advisor | Mengesha Yayo (PhD) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Adam Fisha | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-03-06T12:01:24Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2026-03-06T12:01:24Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2025-06-10 | |
| dc.description.abstract | Ethiopia's agriculture for livelihoods and economy is extremely vulnerable to climate change by the increasing temperature, irregular rainfall, and land degradation. Here, a system dynamics model was employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate adaptation policies on major crop production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ethiopia. Using the Ministry of Planning, World Bank and Central Statistical Agency (2000-2020) data, the model simulates four policy scenarios between 2000 and 2050: (1) adoption of improved seeds and droughtresistant crops, (2) expansion of irrigation, (3) substitution with organic fertilizer, and (4) combined approach. Results indicate productivity versus sustainability trade-offs, more seeds increase output without land increases, reducing GHG emissions; irrigation increases production but raises emissions by a large magnitude; organic fertilizer reduces emissions but lowers small yield gains. The triple policy produces the highest crop output (131,086 metric tons in 2050) in a stable emissions scenario. We conclude that indicators of integrated adaptation strategies Improved seeds, sustainable irrigation, and organic fertilizers combined need to be implemented to guarantee adaptation for secure and sustainable agriculture. Recommendations include the increase of improved seed availability, promotion of solar irrigation, transition towards organic soil management, and enhancing institutional coordination and farmer support. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/123456789/7909 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | |
| dc.publisher | A.A,U | |
| dc.title | Modeling the Impact of Climate Adaptation Policy on Major Crop Production: a System Dynamics Approach | |
| dc.type | Thesis |