Modeling the Impact of Climate Adaptation Policy on Major Crop Production: a System Dynamics Approach
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Date
2025-06-10
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A.A,U
Abstract
Ethiopia's agriculture for livelihoods and economy is extremely vulnerable to climate change by
the increasing temperature, irregular rainfall, and land degradation. Here, a system dynamics
model was employed to evaluate the long-term impacts of climate adaptation policies on major
crop production and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Ethiopia. Using the Ministry of
Planning, World Bank and Central Statistical Agency (2000-2020) data, the model simulates
four policy scenarios between 2000 and 2050: (1) adoption of improved seeds and droughtresistant
crops, (2) expansion of irrigation, (3) substitution with organic fertilizer, and (4)
combined approach. Results indicate productivity versus sustainability trade-offs, more seeds
increase output without land increases, reducing GHG emissions; irrigation increases
production but raises emissions by a large magnitude; organic fertilizer reduces emissions but
lowers small yield gains. The triple policy produces the highest crop output (131,086 metric tons
in 2050) in a stable emissions scenario. We conclude that indicators of integrated adaptation
strategies Improved seeds, sustainable irrigation, and organic fertilizers combined need to be
implemented to guarantee adaptation for secure and sustainable agriculture. Recommendations
include the increase of improved seed availability, promotion of solar irrigation, transition
towards organic soil management, and enhancing institutional coordination and farmer support.