Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in Addis Ababa.
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Date
1998-12
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Addis Abeba Universty
Abstract
A mathematical modeling was done to determine the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic in Addis Ababa. It was found that:- a) the adult HIV prevalence will reach a plateau level of [0.78% in the year 2001 and then declines to 10.28% in the year 2004. b) AIDS will slow the decline in infant mortality rate and under 5 mortality rates and will increase crude death rate and lowers the life expectancy at birth. c) AIDS will reduce the size of the Addis Ababa population by about 160,000 people in the year 2004, but will not stop or make its growth negative. d) AIDS will also reduce fertility but, e) it will not worsen the traditional dependency ratio (i.e., the population under age 15 and over age 64, as a proportion of the population of age 15-64). Similar trends were reported by studies conducted in other sub Saharan African countries. Based on the above findings, preventive measures such as STD control, condom promotion, IEC and blood screening, approaching the problem multi sectorally, incorporating the HIY/ AIDS epidemic in the demographic projection, and establishing HIY/AIDS data base were recommended.
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HIV/AIDS