Demographic Impact of HIV/aids in Addis Ababa
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Date
1998-12
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Addis Abeba Universty
Abstract
A mathematical modeling was done to determine the demographic impact ofHIY/AIDS
epidemic in Addis Ababa.
It was found that:- a) the adult HIY prevalence will reach a plateau level of [0.78% in the
year 2001 and then declines to 10.28% in the year 2004. b) AIDS will slow the decline in
infant mortality rate and under 5 mortality rates and will increase crude death rate and
lowers the life expectancy at birth. c) AIDS will reduce the size ofthe Addis Ababa
population by about 160,000 people in the year 2004, but will not stop or make its growth
negative. d) AIDS will also reduce fertility but, e) it will not worsen the traditional
dependency ratio (i.e., the population under age 15 and over age 64, as a proportion of the
population of age 15-64). Similar trends were reported by studies conducted in other subSaharan
African countries.
Based on the above findings, preventive measures such as STD control, condom
promotion, IEC and blood screening, approaching the problem multisectorally,
incorporating the HIY/ AIDS epidemic in the demographic projection, and establishing
HIY/AIDS data base were recommended.
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Demographic Impact of HIV/aids in Addis Ababa