Demographic Correlates of Poverty in Rural North Shewa: Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2003-06
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Ethiopia has been plagued by pervasive poverty for centuries. Especially, the rural people are the most
affected basically because of complex, multi-dimensional, and dynamic forces. Factors responsible for
the persistence of rural poverty are linked to demographic, social, economic, physical, and political
conditions .. However, the major objective of the study lies at exploring the causation that runs from
demographic factors to poverty outcomes in rural North Shewa.
Data are obtained from two sources: the 1999/00 HICE Survey undertaken by CSA and a small
qualitative assessment (Focus group discussion and in-depth interview with key informants) in one of
the Wedredas of North Shewa in March, 2003.
The analysis shows that the per capita income for rural North Shewa is Birr. 1256 (US$ 165.10),
which is less than half of the international poverty line set by the World Bank, US $370. Based on
absolute poverty line of Birr 1075.03per adult equivalent, 40 per cent of the study population are
identified as poor while the poor are on the average 11.3 per cent short of fulfilling the minimum
expenditure.
The informants in the qualitative assessment disclosed that inequality among rural peasants is
becoming invisible and all are making a swift i:zove to the "poor" category. They further suggested
that their coping strategies are exhausted, intra-family conflicts are on rise, social cohesion in the
community is weakening, insecurity is pervasive and they foresee no window of hope. According to the
informants, the major causes of poverty are shortage of rainfall, erratic rainfall, population pressure
(shortage of land and other resources), and deterioration of the productivity of land.
The results obtained by the qualitative and quantitative analyses with regard to the correlates of
poverty is nearly similar. For multivariate analysis, probit model and multiple regression procedure
are used to regress poverty per se and standard of living (the depth of poverty), respectively.
Generally, household characteristics that trigger entry into the poverty trap comprise: larger
household size, mid-span of the age of the household head, elderly dominated composition, youngdominated
composition, larger number of women, and larger number of males accompanied by
disproportionately smaller number of adult females ..
The pattern of the prevalence of poverty indicates that there is a threat to the effort to reduce infant
and child mortality and achieve universal education. At the same time, poverty is noted to hard hit the
households with labour force and wisdom which implies opportunities to come out of poverty if they
are provided with capital and natural resources. The result also revealed that thee inequality among
elderly is quite large. From the results, it is argued that no matter how the demographic window may
be opeed, it may not be possible to abate poverty unless accompanied by large-scale employment
opportunities out side the agriculture sector.
Description
Keywords
Poverty in Rural North Shewa