Parametric Modeling of Survival Data Based on HIV Infected Adult Patients Under Heart: A Case of Zewditu Referral Hospital, Addis Ababa

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Addis Abeba university


Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) is one of the most destructive epidemics in the history of mankind. HIV/AIDS has now become a worldwide issue in general and developing countries in particular. The study was aimed to compare the performance of the common parametric models namely; Exponential, Weibull, Gompertz, and Log-logistic using HIV infected adult patients’ dataset. A second objective of the study was to determine the factors/variables that affect the survival time of HIV infected patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted in Zewditu Referral Hospital located in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Records of patients enrolled between September 2010 and August 2014 were reviewed continuously using patients’ ART unique identification numbers as reference. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Log-Rank test were used to compare the survival experience of different category of patients and parametric survival models were employed to predict survival time of the patients. All fitted models were compared by using AIC and log likelihood. Of all 638 HIV infected adult patients, 64(10%) died during the follow up period. The log-logistic model gave a better description of the time-to-death of HIV infected adult patients than the other models considered. Based on log-logistic model, age, weight, functional status, TB screen, WHO clinical stage and educational level were found to be the most prognostic factors of time-to-death. Furthermore a high risk of death of patients was found to be associated with lower initial weight, WHO clinical stage IV, lower CD4 count, being ambulatory, bedridden, and TB screened and illiterate



HIV Infected Adult Patients Under Heart