Analysis of changes in land use and land cover transition, climate extremes, and vegetation productivity: Drivers and agricultural risks in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia
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Date
2023-12-20
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Exploring vegetation responses to human and climate-induced change and its feedback is crucial for understanding the terrestrial ecosystem dynamics and sustainable development. The study's main objective is to quantify the relative contribution of climate and human-induced Net Primary Productivity (NPP) and its implications on agriculture in the Awash Basin. Seasonal and annual trends and correlation between total rainfall (TRF) and NPP data (1982-2018) were used to disentangle climate from human-induced change. The Rain Use Efficiency (RUE) and Residual Trend Analysis (RESTREND) were also computed to support the analysis. The study revealed that the spatial heterogeneity of TRF in the basin influenced the NPP, RUE, and RESTREND results. The study shows that climate change decreased about 39.9% of NPP area, while human activities increased about 14.9 % of NPP area. Human activities that caused the increase in the NPP area are mainly found in areas where large-scale and small-scale irrigation activities are practiced. Human activities in land use and land cover transition, including expansion of bareland areas, rainfed agricultural lands, and vegetation losses, resulted in NPP reduction. The result of the study also indicated that the seasonal variation in NPP and TRF in the basin threatens farmers whose livelihood depends on rainfed agriculture. Generally, the declining rate of NPP in the Basin suggests that land degradation is increasing, resulting in reduced ecosystem service. Therefore, addressing the local conditions and factors driving the change is important when managing the basin's vegetation productivity.
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Climate change, land use and land cover change, net primary productivity, agriculture, residual trend, Ethiopia