Forecasting of Petroleum Oil Import Prices by Garch Models: The Case of Ethiopia
| dc.contributor.advisor | Gotu, Butte(PhD) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Getaneh, Leykun | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2018-06-27T06:23:23Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2023-11-09T14:29:58Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2018-06-27T06:23:23Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2023-11-09T14:29:58Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2012-11 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The price of oil affects everyone, everyday. Petroleum oil (oil) is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made petroleum oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of petroleum oil import prices of Ethiopia has affected many related sectors, stock market indices and the country‟s economy. The main objectives of this study were to estimate and forecast petroleum oil import prices in Ethiopia. The data for this study were monthly petroleum oil import prices data obtained from the National Bank of Ethiopia for the period from July 1999 to June 2011. The Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) approach was used to forecast monthly petroleum oil import prices of Ethiopia. GARCH(1,1) was found to be a suitable model in forecasting monthly petroleum oil import prices of Ethiopia due to its ability to capture the non constant conditional variance. Based on the fitted GARCH(1,1) model monthly petroleum oil import prices were forecasted from July 2011 to June 2013. The forecasted results obtained from GARCH (1,1) model showed that import petroleum oil prices are expected to increase from July 2011 to June 2013 with some fluctuations as a result of volatility | en_US |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://10.90.10.223:4000/handle/123456789/3841 | |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.publisher | Addis Abeba university | en_US |
| dc.subject | Petroleum Oil Import | en_US |
| dc.title | Forecasting of Petroleum Oil Import Prices by Garch Models: The Case of Ethiopia | en_US |
| dc.type | Thesis | en_US |