A FUZZY DEMATEL SYSTEMATIC APPROACH FOR RISK ANALYSIS IN THE CASE OF ADDIS ABABA’S ROAD CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS ©
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Date
2025-03
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Construction industry is a complex, dynamic and challenging industry that each process and activities in creating new things are susceptible to risk. In its dynamic nature, there is always a change in interpretation of and compliance with many applicable laws, codes, and regulations; gathering of considerable amount of resources, including labor, equipment, and material; and communications with and coordination among multiple parties, such as the owner, the design professional, other contractors and subcontractors, and suppliers, all of whom may have different purposes and goals. In relation to the dynamic nature of the industry, many factors that are not planned and expected might arise during the construction process. In this context, both the Ethiopian road construction industry in general and Addis Ababa’s Road construction sector in particular demonstrate a significant need for an effective risk analysis approach to evaluate the impact of various risks and uncertainties on project performance. An effective risk analysis method should account for the dynamic nature of risks throughout the project life cycle and incorporate feedback loops that influence overall risk outcomes. This project paper proposes and applies a Fuzzy DEMATEL-based systematic approach; an enhanced and practical method that explicitly identifies, quantifies, and analyzes key risk influences. Forty-Five major risks were identified, grouped into 21 categories, and analyzed within a Systematic, hierarchical framework. The findings confirm that Procurement Risks, Economy-Related Uncertainties, Time Uncertainties/Risks, and Technological Uncertainties are the most critical risks impacting the achievements of the project goals. The identified risk factors have also been organized into a causal hierarchical risk structure, with the most prominent risk categories ranked accordingly.
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Keywords
Road Construction, Risk Analysis, System Dynamics, Project Management, Fuzzy Set Theory, DEMATEL