The Dilemma of Hydropower Development in Post-1991 Ethiopia: Drivers, Challenges and Geopolitical Implications

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Date

2024-11-01

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Addis Ababa University

Abstract

This study examines the drivers, challenges, and geopolitical implications of hydropower development in Ethiopia since 1991. The study argues that hydropower development, which was driven by its potential to achieve development and political goals at various levels simultaneously, has boomed in the post-1991 period. As a result, Ethiopia has been repositioned as a hydropower rising state and a regional power hub, while also becoming hydro-dependent. However, the hydropower boom has encountered opposition from multiple actors' competing water, energy, food, and environment security interests and faced challenges stemming from the siloed approach to hydropower development and the nature of it. This poses a complex challenge: how to balance the competing interests of multiple actors, the benefits and burdens of hydropower development, managing reliance on hydropower and its vulnerability to climate change, cooperation and conflict, while meeting local, national, and regional energy needs. Theoretically, the study is broadly grounded in the nexus approach and complex interdependence perspectives. Furthermore, the study adopts a national-regional-global framework as the level of analysis to better understand the interplay between national, regional, and global factors shaping hydropower development. Methodologically, a qualitative research approach is used with data collected from 57 purposively selected informants, various documents, online datasets, and secondary sources. The study finds that Ethiopia underwent a radical wave of hydropower development from the early development period (1912-1960), passing through the decade of rapid changes (1960-1974) and stagnation period (1974-2000) and entering into the new era of hydropower development (post-2000). This hydropower development rise and decline has a strong correlation with domestic political landscapes: When political stability and security prevail, hydropower booms, whereas when instability and conflict dominate, hydropower stagnates. In addition, the hydropower development waves identified also go parallel with the global hydropower development waves (the 1900-1970 hydraulic era, the 1970-2000 stagnation and decline period, and the post-2000 hydro booming and restoration period). The study reveals that in the post-1991 period, Ethiopia entered a new hydropower era characterized by a boom in hydropower development that repositions it as 'a rising hydropower state' while simultaneously being a 'hydro dependent state'. The boom in hydropower development is attributed to the convergence and mutually reinforcing interplay between internal enablers and drivers for hydropower development, coupled with overlapping regional and global factors that have further encouraged and enabled its continued growth. The study also discloses that, hydropower development is a centralized and top-down process, characterized by discontent between the hydraulic bureaucracy and political decision-makers on the one hand, and among the various sectors/water users on the other hand. The study identifies major hurdles that hindered the hydropower development landscape of the post-1991 period. These challenges arise from the transboundary nature of water resources, financial constraints, limited private sector investment, vulnerability to climatic factors, project delays and long lead times, political instability and insecurity, limited cross-sectoral coordination in hydropower operations, multilayered contestation and conflict, dam safety and sustainability concerns, weak IX institutional coordination both vertically and horizontally, imbalanced distribution of benefits and burdens from hydropower projects, siloed environmental and social impact assessments, and fragmented hydropower development planning and decision making. The study also shows that the geopolitical implications of hydropower development range from its geostrategic opportunities such as repositioning Ethiopia as a battery of the region and clean energy power hub, and its sources of foreign currency earnings, soft power, and ideational power and serves for the region as a source of emancipation and a catalyst of energy-led regional integration. Despite its transformative potential, it has simultaneously ignited a complex web of hydropolitical tensions and rivalries. Finally, the study calls for the need to shift the hydropower development approach from the business-as-usual model, which is rooted in siloed thinking, to a nexus approach that considers the synergy and trade-offs among the interconnected sectors of water security, energy security, food security, and environmental security, as well as the interests of multiple water users. It also calls for the need to develop a national energy security strategy and integrated power master plan that takes nexus thinking. These changes will contribute to the resolution of the problems while reinforcing the geo-transformative potential of hydropower in creating an interdependent grid interconnected community and region of energy peace domestically and regionally. Keywords: Ethiopia, Hydropower, Hydropower Development, Driver, Challenge, Geopolitics

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Keywords

Ethiopia, Hydropower, Hydropower Development, Driver, Challenge, Geopolitics

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