The Sudan Crisis: Implications for Ethiopian's National Security
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Date
2025-06
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Addis Ababa Unversity
Abstract
This thesis investigates the varied influence of the ongoing Sudanese armed conflict on Ethiopia's national security in the context of domestic political dynamics in both countries, emerging regional dynamics, and interstate ties in the Horn of Africa. The study examines historical relations, contemporary diplomatic engagements, and regional security frameworks to demonstrate how Sudan's internal instability affects Ethiopia's strategic interests, border security, resource management, and refugee flows. The study employs the Regional Security Complex Theory and Regional Conflict Complex frameworks to investigate the interconnectivity of regional conflicts, transboundary threats, and foreign actors that shape the security environment. It emphasizes the importance of Sudan's geostrategic location, its geopolitical entanglements with Middle Eastern and Gulf states, and the implications of regional conflict forms for Ethiopian stability. Methodologically, the research employs qualitative analysis based on interviews with Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials and experts, experts from the Institute of Foreign Affairs. It also undertook extensive review of secondary sources. The findings reveal that Sudan’s protracted conflict exacerbates Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities, including border disputes, transboundary water resource tensions, refugee influx, transboundary crimes which threaten regional stability. In addition, the protracted war in Sudan compromise Ethiopia’s national interest by indirectly fueling domestic instability, exposing to involvement of external adversaries.
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Keywords
regional conflict complex, Regional Security Complex, National Security, bilateral arrangements, Trans border organized Crimes, external intervention