Modelling The Transmission of Drug Resistant Tuberculosis in Ethiopia
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Date
2013-07-10
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Tuberculosis is an infectious disease, which is affecting a third of the world's popula-
tion, that makes Tuberculosis a global health problem. Many countries are trying to
eliminate the disease but the emergence of multi-drug resistant strain become a chal-
lenge as it is diffcult but not impossible to treat despite being too expensive. Now a
days mathematical models for infectious disease are important in studying qualitative
dynamics of the disease at the population level which can will in gaps were experiments
with the spread of infectious disease in human population are often impossible, unethical
or expensive. In this study we formulated a two strain tuberculosis model and discussed
some of the dynamical behaviour of the disease . In the model health education will be
given to susceptible population to protect them from infection and treatment is o ered
to infected individuals except for latently infected with drug resistant Tuberculosis. We
divided the latent stage for drug sensitive tuberculosis as early stage , for those who
are infected latently but stayed not more than 2 years, and long stage, for those who
have been infected latently for more than two years, to see the effect of treatment for
early latent stage as most of transfer to infectious class occur during the frst two years.
We used numerical methods to solve the ordinary diferential equation and see some
of the dynamical behaviour of the disease. Numerical simulation result shows that the
interventions can eliminate the sensitive strain, but can only reduce the drug resistant
tuberculosis. Treatment for early latent stages have a great role in eliminating the drug
sensitive Tuberculosis.
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Modelling The Transmission