The Shifting Sands of Diplomacy: Ethiopia's Evolving Relationship with Somaliland and its Impact on the Horn of Africa
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Date
2025-11-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The region, Horn of Africa which is well known for its uncertain instability and volatility based on power politics, ethnic and territorial conflicts. Under this context, the 2024 Memorandum of Understanding(MoU) signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland shows a critical yet contesting developments, which provides Ethiopia an opportunity maritime access via Somaliland whereas simultaneously enhancing Somaliland’s quest for international recognition. This study, entitled “The Shifting Sands of Diplomacy: Ethiopia’s Evolving Relationship with Somaliland and its Impact on the Horn of Africa,” examines the MoU’s implications for regional economic and security integration and stability as well as foreign policy relations. To conduct this study and to better understand the nature of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), the more pertinent theoretical frameworks of liberalism, constructivism, and realism has been used. The research employed a qualitative method based on secondary and primary data including interview with the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs’ expert, review literatures, media outlets, prominent internet and website sources as well as analysis of academic article journals and books. The research applied thematic and comparative analysis to understand and interpret Ethiopia’s interests, Somaliland’s diplomatic course, and the feedbacks of international, regional players and neighboring countries to negotiate or complicate the signing of the MoU. Based on the findings, Ethiopia’s active engagement with Somaliland reveals the practical realist assumptions aiming access to maritime and ensuring national security. On the other hand, Somaliland secures recognition by utilizing the deal using it as a mechanism to achieve its planned goal. Hence, the MoU has aggravated geopolitical competition, by creating counterbalancing reactions from Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea, and Egypt including from western and Gulf states and as well as regional and international organizations. From the liberal point of view, the MoU is a means for potential economic inter-connectedness and institutional cooperation, while the constructivist standpoint, it highlights how legitimacy, norm creation and identity issues shape both behavior and regional understandings. Therefore, the study, sums up that the MoU represents the intertwined of power play, institutions, and identity in the horn of Africa makes more complex. Viable stability entails reconciling the realist’s rules of survival with the liberal mutual cooperation and constructivists’ understanding of recognition or legitimacy. Formal mediations and negotiations under the IGAD or AU supervisions might be one of the mechanisms to implement, by focusing on the common economic and security objectives are suggested to advance the MoU’s deal from a source of conflict into a framework of regional integration and cooperation.
Key Words: Diplomacy, International Relations, Horn of Africa, Regional Integration, Mutual understanding, Mediations, negotiations, recognition, de facto state recognition ,de jure recognition ,legitimacy, legal deterrence ,quasi states
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Keywords
Diplomacy, International Relations, Horn of Africa, Regional Integration, Mutual understanding, Mediations, negotiations, recognition, de facto state recognition, de jure recognition, legitimacy, legal deterrence, quasi states.