The Geopolitical Dynamics of the Horn of Africa: Security Implications for Ethiopia
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Date
2025-12-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
This study examines the contemporary geopolitical dynamics of the Horn of Africa (HoA) and their security implications for Ethiopia post 2018. First chapter deals with critical elements such as statement of the problem, research questions and research design. In this chapter it was identified that the Horn remains one of the most volatile regions in the world, marked by overlapping internal and inter-state conflicts, fragile political transitions, and intense involvement of external powers. In the second chapter review of relevant literature of contemporary Horn book chapters, peer reviewed journals, articles and so on were provided. Third chapter dealt with Regional Security Complex (RSC) theory as a framework with which the thesis was guided by. The Horn as a complex in regards to Middle East Complex and sub complex was discussed including what Ethiopia’s place in the whole Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and Horn of Africa security arena. The following chapter outlined methodological approach. Primary data collected from five key informants was presented and discussed in the fourth chapter. And the final chapter presented findings that revealed that the region’s security landscape is shaped by the competing interests of traditional powers, particularly the United States and China, as well as the growing involvement of Middle Eastern states such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey. The research identifies that Ethiopia’s internal instability and evolving foreign policy since 2018 have further complicated its regional posture. The study concludes that sustainable peace and stability in the Horn depend on strengthening collective regional institutions, especially IGAD, and ensuring that Ethiopia’s foreign policy prioritizes internal cohesion, cooperative regional engagement, and resilience against external manipulation
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Keywords
Geopolitics, Horn of Africa, Ethiopia, Regional Security Complex, IGAD, External Powers, Red Sea, Peace and Security