Analysis of Causes of Cattle Death Using Discrete Regression Models in Ethiopia
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Date
2015-06
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Addis Abeba university
Abstract
Analysis of Causes of Cattle Death Using Discrete Regression Models in
Ethiopia
Abdulaziz Shiffa
Addis Ababa University, 2015
Ethiopia is believed to have the largest cattle population in Africa. The cattle
sub-sector has been contributing a considerable portion to the economy of the
country, food supply and foreign currency income. For the majority of
smallholder farmer’s cattle are livelihood and for some farmers the sub-sector
is the only livelihood. The objective of this study is to identify the most
important factors affecting cattle death in Ethiopia. The dataset in this study
is based on the 2014 agricultural survey obtained from Central Statistical
Agency (CSA), Ethiopia. Four count models: Poisson, NB, ZIP and ZINB model
were applied in order to identify the best fit model for cattle death in Ethiopia.
The preliminary predicted values and model selection criteria such as AIC,
LRT, deviance and Vuong statistic showed that ZINB regression model is the
most appropriate model to fit cattle death. The results of ZINB analysis
revealed that age, household size, educational background, farming type,
agro-ecology zone and land holding size were found to have statistically
significant effect on cattle death. Based on the findings, both governments
and stakeholders should work hard to reduce cattle death by promoting
mixed farming system and exercising continuous trainings on handling cattle
for small holding farmers
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Keywords
Cattle Death Using Discrete