Spatial Analysis of Tuberculosis in Eastern Hararge, Ethiopia
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Date
2013-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Tuberculosis (TB) has claimed many lives throughout the history of mankind and it
continues to be a global threat in the coming decades, especially in developing countries
like Ethiopi a. The incidence and mortality due to TB cases is not equally distributed
across the globe; they vary by geographic region, subpopulation, and spread by close and
prolonged contact with an infected individual.
The main aim of this study is to examine and characterize the spatial patterns of TB cases
in East Hararge Zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia. The data used are obtained from Zonal
Health Bureaus. Two step exploratory spatial analyses were carried out: - examining the
presence of spatial autocorrelations and modeling spatial di stribution of TB cases via
autoregressive models. Spatial autocorrelation was investigated by global and local test
statistics; Moran's 1, Geary's C, and Ord and Gelis Gi * statistics. Two different spatial
models; spatial autoregressive models (SAil) and conditional autoregressive model
(CAli) were considered for describing spatial dependence of TB cases on local risk
factors.
Test results of spatial autocorrelations revealed statistically significant clustering of
fifteen woredas; of which seven woredas (iocated in north and eastern part) were
identified as high risk areas. Spatial lag model from spatial autoregressive models and
CAR model has been fitted for describing the spatial association of TB cases on
explanatory variables. The result of the study suggests that TB prevalence of the study
area is highl y enhanced by proximity to potential affected areas, high population densi ty,
HIV prevalence and di stance from (number of) health institutions.