Evaluating the vulnerability context of livelihoods and responses in a changing climate condition: insights for sustainable livelihood in different agro-ecologies of Gurage Zone
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Date
2020-05
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Climate variability and change profoundly affect rural livelihood systems in Ethiopia, particularly
those built around climate-sensitive sectors. Generally, the objective of this study was to evaluate
the vulnerability context of livelihoods in a changing climate condition and to examine farmers'
responses for sustainable livelihood to support effective ex-ante decision-making in different agroecologies of Gurage zone, Southern Ethiopia. The dissertation used a mixed research design to
address the objectives. Representative 357 farm households were selected using a multistage
sampling technique and data was collected using a semi-structured questionnaire.
Complementarily, 2 focus group discussions and 12 key informant interviews for each agroecologies were carried-out. Agro-ecological variation of climate indices for extreme precipitation
and temperature was analyzed for the time 1986–2016. The study used different data analysis
methods, including the Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) and Livelihood Vulnerability Index–
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (LVI–IPCC) to analyze livelihood vulnerability; the
trend and magnitude of changes in precipitation and temperature extreme were examined by the
Mann–Kendall (MK) test and Sen's slope estimator, respectively; adaptation difference between
agro-ecologies was measured by one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and descriptive
statistics; the Multinomial Logit Model (MNL) used to analyze determinants of the choice of
adaptation strategies among farm households. The results indicate that there had been consistent
warming trends in the study agro-ecologies. While inconsistent changes in precipitation extremes
with insignificance trends were observed. The duration of extreme precipitation trends showed
inconsistency among the studied agro-ecologies. The livelihood vulnerability analysis revealed
that the lowland agro-ecological zone was more vulnerable to a changing climate condition,
although there was a difference in components relative value in the three agro-ecological settings.
Increasing temperature and declining precipitation are perceived by the majority of the
respondents. Similarly, sampled farmers reported that the frequency of extreme events like
drought, flood, frost, and storm had increased. In response to the adverse effects of climate
variability and change, farmers employed adaptation strategies. But, a significant agro-ecological
variation in farm management practices was found. The result from the multinomial logit model
showed that different factors determine the adoption of adaptation measures. The result revealed
that the adoption of crop management related strategy to a changing climate is significantly and
positively affected by education level, farming experience, and extension advice. A positive and
significant influence of sex, household size, credit service, access to market, and lowland agroecology was observed on the adoption of soil and water conservation measures. Context-specific
interventions in response to a changing climate condition are recommended. Due to the availability
of relatively large farm-land and less labor out-migration, crop management measures like
drought-resistant and improved varies and adoption of soil and water conservation measures are
recommended in lowland agro-ecological zone to increase the productivity of agricultural
activities and thereby to sustain the livelihood of farmers. While, diversification of livelihood and
plantation of Enset is recommended in both midland and highland agro-ecological zones since
there is a land shortage, migration of youths, and population density. Similarly, the results
acknowledge the role of institutional support in terms of education, climate information, credit,
extension services, and market access to increase farmers’ readiness to implement adaptation
strategies in response to the impacts of climate-related disasters, to improve livelihood, and support
disaster risk reduction efforts.
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Keywords
climate extremes; trend; livelihood vulnerability; determinant; agroecology; Gurage