Determinants of Traffic Fatalities and Injuries in Addis Ababa: A Study based on Binary and Ordinal Logistic Regression Models
No Thumbnail Available
Date
2010-06
Authors
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Background: Road traffic acc idents (RTAs) are a major publ ic health concern, resulting in an
estimated 1.2 million deaths and 20-50 million injuries worldwide each year. In developing
countries RTAs are among the leading cause of death and injury. Ethiopia experiences the
highest rate of such accidents in Sub-Saharan Africa. Out of a ll the accidents registered in
Ethiopia, Addis Ababa accounts for 60% on average.
Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the occu rrence
of traffic acc idents leading to human injuries and death.
Method: This study appl ied binary and ordinal logistic regression models to identify factors
influencing traffic fata lities and inju ries. Stratified samplin g with proportional a llocation and
simple random sampling technique are used to se lect samples from recorded fram e. The data is
obta ined from Add is Ababa Traffic Control and In vest igation Department (AATCID). A total of
443 accidents involvi ng human injury that occurred within 365 consecutive days from July 8,
2008 to Ju ly 7, 2009 are sampled.
Results: Descriptive anal ys is indicates that 149 (33.6 percent), 196 (44.2 percent) and 98 (22.2
percent) are found to be s light injury, seri ous injury and fata l, respecti vely. Binary and ordinal
logist ic regress ion ana lyses showed that drivers aged 18-30 years caused the larger number of
acc idents followed by age group 3 1-50. Dri vers with lower ed ucat ional background, absence of
lighting, wet surface and asphalt pavements, morn ing and evening hours, places like offi ces,
res id ential and commerc ial nei ghborhoods, automobiles and taxies/minibuses were fo und to be
strong and signifi cant predi ctors of severity fata liti es/seri ous injuries for traffic accidents in
Add is Ababa.
Conclusion: For effective and safe traffic management, the concerned tran sportation authorities
can cons ider the above mentioned predictors as potenti al causes of acc idents in the ir order of
importance. The findings of thi s study can serve as a basis for policymakers to create preventive
measures for traffic accidents.
Description
Keywords
Determinants of Traffic Fatalities