Determinants of Traffic Fatalities and Injuries in Addis Ababa: A Study based on Binary and Ordinal Logistic Regression Models

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Addis Ababa University


Background: Road traffic acc idents (RTAs) are a major publ ic health concern, resulting in an estimated 1.2 million deaths and 20-50 million injuries worldwide each year. In developing countries RTAs are among the leading cause of death and injury. Ethiopia experiences the highest rate of such accidents in Sub-Saharan Africa. Out of a ll the accidents registered in Ethiopia, Addis Ababa accounts for 60% on average. Objective: The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the occu rrence of traffic acc idents leading to human injuries and death. Method: This study appl ied binary and ordinal logistic regression models to identify factors influencing traffic fata lities and inju ries. Stratified samplin g with proportional a llocation and simple random sampling technique are used to se lect samples from recorded fram e. The data is obta ined from Add is Ababa Traffic Control and In vest igation Department (AATCID). A total of 443 accidents involvi ng human injury that occurred within 365 consecutive days from July 8, 2008 to Ju ly 7, 2009 are sampled. Results: Descriptive anal ys is indicates that 149 (33.6 percent), 196 (44.2 percent) and 98 (22.2 percent) are found to be s light injury, seri ous injury and fata l, respecti vely. Binary and ordinal logist ic regress ion ana lyses showed that drivers aged 18-30 years caused the larger number of acc idents followed by age group 3 1-50. Dri vers with lower ed ucat ional background, absence of lighting, wet surface and asphalt pavements, morn ing and evening hours, places like offi ces, res id ential and commerc ial nei ghborhoods, automobiles and taxies/minibuses were fo und to be strong and signifi cant predi ctors of severity fata liti es/seri ous injuries for traffic accidents in Add is Ababa. Conclusion: For effective and safe traffic management, the concerned tran sportation authorities can cons ider the above mentioned predictors as potenti al causes of acc idents in the ir order of importance. The findings of thi s study can serve as a basis for policymakers to create preventive measures for traffic accidents.



Determinants of Traffic Fatalities