Multilevel Survival Analysis of Time to Age at First Marriage Among Women in Ethiopia

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Addis Abeba university


A marriage can be viewed as a social union or legally recognized union between a man and a woman in which they are united sexually; cooperate economically, and may have children through birth or adoption. (Ikamari, 2005). Age at marriage is the age at which individuals get married and this varies across communities and individuals. (UNICEF,2005). The main objective of this study is to model time to age at first marriage amongst women in Ethiopia. The data set in this study were obtained from Demography and Health survey conducted in Ethiopia in 2011. Women’s work status, religion, place of residence, head education level, women education level, head occupation, access to media and wealth index are variables which were considered as the potential determinant of time to age at first marriage in this study. In this study, we used multilevel survival models to account for the loss of independence that arises from the clustering of women in region of Ethiopia and also we used AIC to compare two different multilevel survival models. Of all 12066 women aged 15-49, 9466(78.45%) were married and the median & mean age at first marriage for women living in Ethiopia were 16 years and 16.2 years respectively, while the minimum and maximum age at first marriage observed were 8 years and 49 years respectively. Based on the result of selected model (Log logistic-Gamma shared frailty model), place of residence of women, religion of women, education level of women, wealth index of household and head education were significant at 5% level of significance. In contrast work status of women, head occupation and access to media were not significant at 5% level of significance. The clustering effect was significant for modeling time-to-age at first marriage dataset and there was heterogeneity among the regions on age at first marriage



Time-To-Age at First Marriage, Risk Factors, Heterogeneity, Frailty, Laplace Transformations