Harmonizing Indigenous and Scientific Seasonal Drought Forecasting Knowledge for Building Livelihood Resilience: The case of Borana Oromo Pastoral Households’ of Southern Ethiopia

Abera Bekele

Harmonizing Indigenous and Scientific Seasonal Drought Forecasting Knowledge for Building Livelihood Resilience: The case of Borana Oromo Pastoral Households’ of Southern Ethiopia

Date

2023-09

Authors

Abera Bekele

Publisher

Addis Ababa University

Abstract

This study examines pastoral households‘ livelihoods resilience capacities with especial insights on the driving role of the seasonal drought forecasting knowledge in livelihood decision making and implementation among the Borana Oromo pastoralists of southern Ethiopia. Thirteen districts of the Boran Zone were grouped into six clusters that consist of Yabello, Teltele, Gomole, Dirre, Moyale and Guchi based on the traditional rangeland resources divisions and the proximate of the area to each other for the purpose of this study. Primary data were collected using households survey, experimental groups, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. Historical rainfall data were retrieved from the website of national Aero-Space administration - predition of world energy resources / NASA POWER access project climate data/ and Ethiopian meteorological agency/NMA/. SPI and ANN based analysis methods were used in the actual and in the prediction of the historical seasonal drought forecasting of the study area. PCA based on the variability (%) and factor loadings methods of data analysis were used in the verification of the variation of the resilience process and resilience outcome before and after the severe drought of the 2016/17 in the study area. Regarding qualitative data, this study used thematic based qualitative data analysis techniques. The study findings revealed that the widely used practices of indigenous-based seasonal weather forecasting objects were observable external features of astronomic Moon and Stars in the study area. It was identified that the observation of the Moon and Stars features had been offering sufficient lapse time in a more than/within ahead of a season. This study showed that both astronomic moon and stars based temporal and spatial dimensions of the forecasting were happened in Hagayya dry season (January and February), Ganna (March to May rainfall), Adolessa dry season (June to September) and Hgayya rainfall (October to November) seasons. This indigenous weather forecasting practices are still regularly used in every livelihood decision making process. Similarly, this study identified that, actual/observed and ANN based Ganna and Hagayya seasons SPI 3-months and SPI 6-months prediction value of 1981 – 2021 discovered that Borana Zone rainfall seasons on which communities rely for their entire life supporting systems were/ are drought prone seasons. In the study area, NASA POWER data were more promising in providing actual and predicted seasonal drought modeling when compared with the NMA data. The finding of this study also showed that there were alignments between indigenous and scientific seasonal drought forecasting knowledge in the study area. PCA output value retained the use of indigenous weather knowledge and its multidimensional overall impacts in making the establishment and maintenance of water sources, rangeland management, livestock mobility and social network/support out of 22 resilient preparedness variables. Cattle and sheep were less resilient while goats, camels and rangeland productivity were more resilient to 2016 drought out of 15 resilient outcome capacities. Integrated drought risk management/ knowledge based holistic development approach will sustainably minimize adverse effects of drought in the study area.