In this paper interbirth interval in rural community of Ethiopia was considered. The aim was to study the distribution of this variable and to see if it varies across regions and socio economic groups. The data for the study was obtained from a socio demographic multipurpose survey conducted in rural Ethiopia in 1989 and 1990. The approach of the study was to fit probability density functions and then generate probabilities so that relate this probabilities to fertility rates and levels. While none of the densities fitted perfectly to each consecutive birth interval, the lognormal distribution was found to be relatively better for the first and second intervals. A wider mean first birth interval was observed in Northwest and a relatively smaller one in south, indicating a relatively high fertility rate in the Southern region. For lower parities, interval length of 1.45-2.45 years was observed as a most probable interval length and this shifts to .45-1.45 years at higher parities. For a given interval length and birth order, probability of having a child is higher in south and smaller in Northwest, indicating a relatively high fertility in South and a lower one in the Northwestern region. In a final consideration of family size, education, sex of the first two children in a family and religion, there was no significant difference observed in birth interval pattern in different regions of the country
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Date
1992-06
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Addis Abeba university
Abstract
In this paper interbirth interval in rural community of
Ethiopia was considered. The aim was to study the distribution of
this variable and to see if it varies across regions and socio
economic groups. The data for the study was obtained from a socio
demographic multipurpose survey conducted in rural Ethiopia in
1989 and 1990. The approach of the study was to fit probability
density functions and then generate probabilities so that relate
this probabilities to fertility rates and levels.
While none of the densities fitted perfectly to each
consecutive birth interval, the lognormal distribution was found
to be relatively better for the first and second intervals. A
wider mean first birth interval was observed in Northwest and a
relatively smaller one in south, indicating a relatively high
fertility rate in the Southern region.
For lower parities, interval length of 1.45-2.45 years was
observed as a most probable interval length and this shifts to
.45-1.45 years at higher parities. For a given interval length
and birth order, probability of having a child is higher in south
and smaller in Northwest, indicating a relatively high fertility
in South and a lower one in the Northwestern region.
In a final consideration of family size, education, sex of
the first two children in a family and religion, there was no
significant difference observed in birth interval pattern in
different regions of the country
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Keywords
Survival Data Analysis