The Effect of Global Supply Chain Changes on Ethiopian Coffee Export Performance: The Mediating Role of Government Support Among Seleced Coffee Export Firms in Addis Ababa
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Date
2026-06-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
The purpose of this study was to use government support as a mediator to examine the effect of changes in the global supply chain on Ethiopian coffee export performance. An explanatory research design was used in this investigation. A survey questionnaire was used to gather the necessary data, which came from both primary and secondary sources. A sample of 384 respondents was initially determined using Yamane’s (1967) formula. However, 156 valid questionnaires were successfully collected and analyzed, representing a response rate of 40.6%. the collected data were considered adequate for multiple regression and mediation analysis. The link between the independent variable (Global Supply Chain Changes) and the dependent variable (Coffee Export Performance) was assessed using correlation and regression analysis. Whereas, Andrew Hayes PROCESS Model 4 was employed to analyze the mediating role of Government Support between the relationship of Global Supply Chain Changes and Coffee Export Performance. The regression result showed that Government Support had a positive and significant effect on Coffee Export Performance (β = 0.7453, p < 0.001), explaining 67.9% of the variance in Coffee Export Performance (R Square = 0.679, Adjusted R Square = 0.675). The researcher discovered that there was a positive and significant impact of global supply chain changes on coffee export performance (β = 0.2138, p < 0.001) when the mediating variable of government support was disregarded. The indirect effect of government support was found to be positive and significant (Effect = 0.0597, BootSE = 0.0284, 95% BootCI: 0.0017 to 0.1141), with the bootstrap confidence interval not containing zero, suggesting that about 21.8% of the total effect is transmitted through the mediator. This suggests that government support plays a partial mediating role in the relationship between global supply chain changes and coffee export performance. The study suggests that policymakers and government agencies prioritize strengthening government support mechanisms, particularly market intelligence and training programs for coffee exporters, as well as investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and stable regulatory frameworks, because government support acts as a critical mediator, enhancing the positive relationship between global supply chain adaptations and Ethiopia's coffee export performance.