Satellite Based Exploration of Land-use Dynamics, Drought Susceptibility, and Land Suitability in Central Highlands of Ethiopia
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Date
2021-07
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Land use land cover is dynamically changing in Ethiopia, with far-reaching implications on
recurrent droughts and land suitability status. The central highlands in particular are recognized
for a unique precipitation pattern, intensive cultivation, periodic droughts, and land degradation.
The study intends to use satellites (mainly Landsat) to map land-use dynamics, drought
susceptibility, and agricultural suitability and comparative analysis in Basona Werana district
(Woreda). The land use land cover seemed to be dominated by cultivated land with approximately
74.34 percent (3/4th) of the area in 2021. Non-dominant LULC types share the rest 25.66% in the
following percentage. Shrub and Bush (15.37%), Forests (5.2%), Built-up and settlement (2.87%),
Wetlands (1.22%), and water bodies, pasture land, and bare land collectively account for 1% of
the area. While cultivated land, grassland, shrubland, built-up and settlement areas, and water
bodies have had rising land cover change trends over the last 32 years, forests, bare land, and
wetlands have witnessed a decreasing trend. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and
Normalized Difference Drought Index (NDDI), among other indices, were used to estimate
historical and non-temporal droughts respectively. While VCI estimated that extreme drought
conditions affected 30.18%, 7.34%, 22.55%, and 1.77% of the area in 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2021
respectively, NDDI estimated it to be 35.91%, 40.58, 39.23, and 53.87% in those same years. To
see the real context of cropland suitability constraints such as elevation, slope, soil type, Soil
Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and river
proximity were weighted by various degrees of influence. The result demonstrates 5.35% of the
area is highly suitable, 49.9% is moderately suitable, 28.72% is marginally suitable, 13.46% is less
suitable and 2.56% is not suitable for agriculture. In this particular study, UAV imagery was
particularly useful for ground-truthing satellite-based classification. It does, however, have
inherent limitations when it comes to addressing standardized drought indices and land suitability
evaluations. Choosing the path of sustainable development would provide a long-term solution to
Basona Werana's drought susceptibility. In agrarian areas like Ethiopia, LULC and drought
conditions must be closely monitored.
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Keywords
UAS, satellite images, land-use dynamics, drought susceptibility, agricultural suitability, VCI, NDDI, ground-truthing, Ethiopia