Long-Term Modeling and Analysis of Optimal Pathways and Scenario Alternatives for The Ethiopian Power Sector
| dc.contributor.advisor | Getachew Bekele (PhD) | |
| dc.contributor.advisor | Erik O. Ahlgren (Prof.) | |
| dc.contributor.author | Dawit Habtu | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2024-04-25T08:45:54Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2024-04-25T08:45:54Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2023-05 | |
| dc.description.abstract | The United Nations launched a new set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to guide the world during the next fifteen-year period from 2015 to 2030. With the “Goal 7-Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”, the agenda 2030 recognizes the importance of sustainability, security, and affordability of energy supply to all countries but in particular for developing countries. And the greatest increase in demand for energy is envisaged to come from developing countries where, with rapid urbanization, largescale electricity generation with a reliable and optimum supply will be required. To achieve the SDG7 and ensure energy security, countries are required to develop sustainable and appropriate approaches to electricity planning. In this regard, policymakers increasingly rely on techno-economic assessments both to inform policy development and to help set the right national targets. Accordingly, the modeling and investigation of different optimal pathways and possible future scenarios has become a critical planning tool in the power sector. This type of assessment is currently lacking in developing countries, specifically in Ethiopia. Consequently, in line with the global and local needs, this dissertation deals with strategies and practices for sustainable energy system development in Ethiopia. It focuses on long-term electric power security to make timely investments on various energy resources and supply energy matched with the economic developments and environmental needs of the country. In this framework, the goal is pursued by setting the following three specific objectives: (1) To review and evaluate energy development, power sector reforms, policies and resource adequacy in Ethiopia. This objective is pursued to assess and evaluate the effectiveness of existing reforms and policies in Ethiopia in terms of meeting the country’s rising demand for energy by breaking the “business-as-usual” trajectory of the past. An analytical method to calculate resource planning indices such as reserve margin and expected unserved energy is used. The results indicate that the near-future generation reserve is not adequate to supply the increasing demand resulting mainly from expansion of electricity access, development of industrial parks, extensive expansion of railway network, extensive agriculture irrigation schemes, new sugar factories and export plan to East African Power Pool (EAPP) countries. The second specific objective is (2) To assess the fundamental dynamics, variables and policies that characterize the energy development and determine the evolution of electricity demand. The scientific literature reveals a weak understanding of the inherent characteristics and specific features of energy systems in developing countries. As a result, this specific objective is pursued by knowing the trend and capturing the relationship between demand and other independent socio-economic and technological variables. Comparative overview of various existing modeling frameworks is done in terms of several criteria, particularly their applicability to developing countries. Appropriate modelling frameworks are identified for assessing and projecting the long-term energy use in a systematic manner within the context of developing countries. A better system representation and applicable alternative policy scenarios are also developed by considering the unique characteristics of energy systems in developing countries (unsustainable use of traditional energy sources, high population growth, modernization and urbanization, low electricity access, supply shortage, high system losses, informal economy, etc.). Extensive and detailed dataset is used to simulate the alternative policy scenarios. The pathways represented by the scenarios can show the maximum expected rise in demand under different drivers and the best-case energy saving opportunities. The current methodologies employed for long-term energy demand projection are then evaluated, particularly focusing on the electricity demand. The result of the policy scenarios shows that while the application of energy efficiency policies and measures would only have a minor impact on the energy demand, their impact on the electricity demand is large, and that the application of such policies is a very important measure to combat supply-demand mismatch causing power shortages and black-outs. The projection results are compared with previous studies and reasons for the deviations and strength of the followed approaches are discussed. The last objective is (3) To identify the best power generation and capacity mixes to meet future electricity demands subject to various technical, economic, and environmental constraints. This is pursued by developing a soft-linked OSeMOSYS and LEAP model to determine the lowest cost electricity generation and capacity mixes to meet long-term electricity demands subject to certain policy scenarios that may impose technical constraints, economic realities and environmental targets. The model has various data requirement that describe the current and historical installed capacities, efficiencies, costs (capital, operating and maintenance, fuel costs), capacity factors, losses, expansion plans, etc. From the literature survey, it is observed that there is a gap in providing independent assessments of alternative technologies and policy choices that can be essential for developing countries in a way that addresses their particular needs and constraints. Thereby, the model explores the feasibility of including new technologies to the existing system. This includes assessments of centralized and decentralized methods of electricity supply. Novelties are introduced in terms of better system representation on reference energy system diagram, development of appropriate model and identification of relevant scenarios considering the context of the country and applicability to developing nations. Moreover, sensitivity analysis is carried out to study the effect of critical assumptions and varying parameters on the results. Five policy scenarios are employed (reference-ref, grid extension-grx, multiple resource mixmix, renewable and intermittent resource target-vRE, improved efficiency-Eff) to explore different possible futures and balance the long-term electricity needs and resources. The improved efficiency scenario is the most desirable compared to the other scenarios because of lower installed capacity requirements and economic benefits. Attributed to lower investment costs and abundant resource availability, the results show that renewable technologies are more competitive and favorable in the context of Ethiopia. Hydropower will continue to play a key role in the future electricity supply with the addition of alternative resources like wind, natural gas, geothermal, solar PV and CSP. | |
| dc.identifier.uri | https://etd.aau.edu.et/handle/123456789/2871 | |
| dc.language.iso | en_US | |
| dc.publisher | Addis Ababa University | |
| dc.subject | Scenarios | |
| dc.subject | Energy systems modelling | |
| dc.subject | Energy-mix | |
| dc.subject | Energy demand forecasting | |
| dc.subject | Electricity | |
| dc.subject | Developing country | |
| dc.subject | Ethiopia | |
| dc.subject | LEAP | |
| dc.subject | OSeMOSYS | |
| dc.title | Long-Term Modeling and Analysis of Optimal Pathways and Scenario Alternatives for The Ethiopian Power Sector | |
| dc.type | Thesis |