Survival Analysis of Hiv/Aids Patients on Anti-Retro Viral Therapy and Progression of Hiv/Aids Disease: the Case of Alert Hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
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Date
2020-06-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
HIV is a virus that causes AIDS which attacks and destroys certain types
of white blood cells that are essential to body's immune system, the biological
ability of the human body to _ght infections. The main objective of the study
was to identify the factors that a_ect the survival time of HIV/AIDS patients
and progression of HIV/AIDS disease of an individual patient under ART
follow-up. A retrospective cohort study was conducted on 729 HIV/AIDS pa-
tients who enrolled anti-retro viral therapy from September 2013 to August
2017 at ALERT hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Kaplan-Meier plots and
Log-Rank test were used to compare the survival experience of di_erent cat-
egories and semi-parametric survival model and AFT models were employed
to identify survival time of the patients. Semi-markov model also employed
to identify the progression of the diseases. From 729 patients, 86(11.8%)
died in the follow-up period. Log-logistic AFT model is better _t the data
then other AFT models. The result of this model shows that the survival
time of HIV patients under HAART signi_cantly a_ected by functional sta-
tus, clinical stage, adherence level, CD4 count, weight and BMI. The result
of homogeneous semi-Markov model suggest that at the time increase, the
probability to remain in the same state is decreasing while the probability of
the patient transiting to a next worse state is increasing.
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Keywords
Survival Analysis of Hiv/Aids, Patients on Anti-Retro Viral Therapy, Progression of Hiv/Aids Disease, Case of Alert Hospital, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia