Probabilistic Impact Assessment of Traffic Overload on Bridge Structural Capacity: a Case Study Approach
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Date
2025-12-01
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
This study investigates the effects caused by traffic overload on bridge superstructures, especially with regards to heavy vehicles. The critical thresholds with regards to heavy traffic are discussed, taking into consideration parameters such as traffic flow and characteristics and types and patterns of overload. The work also considers design standards and bridge materials.
The methodology would commence with identification of some bridges in Ethiopia that are faced with varying degrees of traffic overload. And to get this study off the ground, data was collected from 38,188 truckloads of traffic at weigh stations managed by the Ethiopian Roads Administration in those regions that record high traffic flow of heavy vehicles.
Using the R statistical software, a probabilistic loading process was generated. This involved the examination of the material properties of key components as well as the design parameters of a chosen bridge. Probabilistic axle loads were analyzed to assess the impact on the existing bridge’s capacity.
A simulation program was developed to determine static overload influence on a particular type of three-span simply-supported box-girder bridge (Mille. 3 bridge). The extreme values of the load effects for various return-period values were computed with statistical extrapolation methods.
By using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM), reliability indices (β) can be determined in order to calculate the probability of failure regarding flexural and shear modes.
The findings contribute to performance-based management in bridges, considering the impact of real-life overloaded traffic on structural reliability in relation to the life cycle maintenance approach in accordance with AASHTO LRFD/ERA.
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Keywords
Probabilistic approach, Traffic overload, Extreme Value, Box-girder Bridge, Static Weighing, Assessment, Creep.