Impacts of Some Socio-Demographic Characteristics on Fertility In Urban Addis Ababa OlS and Tobit Analysisj
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Date
1999-06
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Addis Abeba university
Abstract
Individual household fertility has been modeled in various ways in the literature.
In many empirical studies of fertility, the number of children ever born is modeled
as a function of social, economical and demographic variables such as wife's
education, husband's education, age atfirst marriage, child mortality ... etc. and
the method most commonly used is regression with OLS method of estimation.
There are also other studies that apply Maximum Likelihood Tobit Model. In our
case, i. e. for the analysis on fertility data of urban Addis Ababa both models are
adopted and may contribute to this body of research.
The results of the analysis evidenced that:
i) The three demographic variables - age at first marriage, desired number of
children and child mortality gave the expected results. That is, age at first
marriage has a negative but insignificant effect, while child mortality and desired
number of children have marked highly significant positive effect on fertility.
ii) Virtually, consistent negative relationship was found between wife's education
and fertility.
iii) Wife's work status and husband education have shown no consistent and
insignificant relationship with fertility.
Finally, based on the findings, it is suggested that policies aimed at increasing
women education, reducing child mortality and limiting desired number offamily
size are useful for decreasing fertility .
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Some Socio-Demographic