Effect of Bus Rapid Transit System on a Modal Shift to Bus: The Case of Winget Area, Addis Ababa
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Date
2022-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Well-planned transportation system plays an important role in the development of the country.
However, continuous increase in traffic congestion is resulted in longer travel times, increased
accidents, more fuel consumption, and air pollution. Winget to Autobistera corridor is the most
congested area in the city due to its proximity to shopping center and national transportation outlet.
Integrating different transit priority measures Bus Rapid Transit transport system (BRT) is going to
be applied in Addis Ababa. Practically, the designs of public transport systems in Addis Ababa are
not based on the modal choice analysis of the target population. This research aims at estimation of
the effect of BRT system on modal shift to bus, following Winget to Autobistera corridor, for the
specific trip purposes.
Primary data was generated from the household survey through structured survey questionnaire.
The secondary data was obtained from the concerning authorities of the Addis Ababa City
Administration. Discrete choice model was used to predict and analyze travelers‟ mode choice for
the specific trip purposes. The sample of 264 and 212 questionnaires were collected for work and
education trip purposes respectively, in which 3/4th of the data were used for calibration and 1/4th
for validation of the developed models. Systematic sampling technique was applied in this study.
Conditional logistic regression model, special type of multinomial logit model, was used to
analyze data and predict trip makers‟ modal shift applying statistical data processing software
SPSS 21 and Microsoft excel tools.
The descriptive analysis indicates that 82.61%, 88.33%, 84.17% and 76.36% of travelers are
interested to divert their choice to BRT for HBW, HBO, NHBW and HBE trips respectively.
Estimation result proved time and cost related variables in addition to age-taxi interaction, income
level-ride share interaction, marital status-taxi interaction, school type-lada interaction are
statistically significant factors in mode choice. The developed models are validated with a
predicting capacity of 88.37%, 90.56 %, 74% and 83.72 % of the preference of trip makers of
HBE, HBO, NHBW and HBE trips, respectively. Applying developed models different remedial
actions, scenarios, were determined to increase desirability of the bus. Stated preference model
shows choice towards BRT bus decrease with the increase in travel cost, in vehicle travel time and
waiting time. Moreover, household survey investigate traveler‟s concern towards BRT including
sexual harassment, traffic accident and congestion, project delay and long bus waiting queue.
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Keywords
Modal shift, discrete choice model, BRT, Conditional logit model