Linking Vulnerability, Adaptation and Food Security in a Changing Climate: Evidence from Muger Sub-Basin of the Upper Blue-Nile Basin of Ethiopia
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Date
2018-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Ethiopia has been deemed a climate ‘hot-spot’- a place where a changing climate pose grave threats to agricultural production, food security and human well-being. The objectives of this study are to estimate and compare the level of vulnerability of smallholder farmers' to climate change and variability; to explore adaptation options and identify factors influencing farmers’ decisions to adopt adaptation options; to examine the food security status and determinants of household food security; and to evaluate the impact of adoption of adaptation options on household food security in the Muger sub-basin of the upper Blue-Nile of Ethiopia. The research used Focussed Group Discussions, key informant interviews and a semi-structured questionnaire survey of 442 sampled households to collect data across three different agro-ecological zones in the sub-basin. The study used descriptive methods, index, and econometrics models to analyse the collected data. Descriptive statistics such as frequency, mean, chi-square, t-tests, and one way ANOVA were used. Livelihood vulnerability index, household food balance model, binary logit model, multinomial logit model, and propensity score matching were used to analyse the data. The results reveal that along with the different agro-ecological zones, households experienced different degrees of vulnerability. Kolla agroecology exhibits relatively low adaptive capacity, higher sensitivity and higher exposure to climate change and variability that is deemed to be the most vulnerable agro-ecology. Dega agro-ecology has least vulnerable owing to its higher adaptive capacity, lower sensitivity and exposure. Results signify that small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, livelihood diversification, and soil and water conservation measures are the dominant adaptation options that smallholder farmers used to limit the negative impact of climate change and variability in the study area. The results further reveal that adoption of small-scale irrigation is significantly and positively influenced by access to credit, social capital, and the educational status of household heads. Crop failure experience and access to early warning system positively affected the use of agronomic practices, while distance to marketplace and size of farmland have a negative influence. The results also point out that adoption of soil and water conservation measures are positively affected by early warning systems, distance to the marketplace, and size of cultivated land. It is also noted that livelihood diversification is negatively influenced by socio-economic factors such as education, gender of the household head, and livestock ownership. The household food security analysis results show that 57.8% of the households are food secure, while the remaining 42.2% of the households are food insecure. Soil and water conservation, small-scale irrigation, and employing different agronomic practices are important factors influencing household food security. Moreover, landholding and livestock ownership positively and significantly affect household’s food security, while family size and distance to the nearest market affect food security negatively. The results further reveal that farmers adopting any of the adaptation options had higher food calorie intake per day per adult equivalent than those who did not. These results suggest that designing agroecology based resilience-building adaptation strategies is crucial to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers to climate change and variability. A policy that promotes the adoption of soil and water conservation measures, small-scale irrigation, agronomic practices, and livelihood diversification strategies should be central to food security strategy in the study area. The results suggest that improved policies aimed at increasing the adoption of adaptation options to off-set the impact of climate change and variability should focus on: creating effective micro-finance institutions and effective early warning systems, increasing farmer awareness, improving infrastructure, and encouraging farmers’ membership to many social groups. The results further suggest that agro-ecological and gender-based research should be promoted and increased for a more holistic understanding of farmer adaptation options.
Keywords: vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, adaptation, food security, Muger sub-basin.