Vulnerability to the changing climate and the quest for livelihood resilience: Agro-ecology based analysis in Wolaita Zone, Southern Ethiopia
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Date
2019-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Building livelihood resilience requires reducing exposure and sensitivity while improving
capacitates to absorb, adapt, and transform from recurring climate shocks. The general
objective of this study was to explore households’livelihood vulnerability conditions tothe
changing climate and investigate livelihood resilience from absorptive, adaptive, and
transformative perspectives in the three agro-ecological Zones of Wolaita Zone, Southern
Ethiopia. Being governed by the pragmatist philosophical view, the study employed a convergent
parallel mixed research design whereby most of the study objectives were centered on
quantitative data collected through multistage sampling techniques from 403 farm households.
Gridded time series data were also obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of
Ethiopia for the years between 1983 and 2014. Purposively selected 11 focus group discussions,
15 key informant interviews, and personal observations were used to complement both the survey
and the meteorological data. The livelihood vulnerability approach framed by the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was tailored for the agro-ecology specific
vulnerability analysis whereas the livelihood analysis was rooted in the three-dimensional
resilience framework consisting of absorptive, adaptive and transformative capacities. The study
was based on climate trend analysis methods, including World Meteorological OrganizationExpert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices, and Non-Parametric-Sen’s Slope
Estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests, Standardized Rainfall Anomaly, and Precipitation
Concentration Index. The econometric models employed include Binary Logit, Ordinary Least
Square, and Quantile Regression. The results show that the three agro-ecological Zones have
experienced both positive and negative trends of change in temperature extremes. Warm
extremes are increasing, whereascold extremes are decreasing, suggesting considerable changes
in the agro-ecological zones. Similarly, a consistently positive trend was observed in the annual
minimum temperature in all agro-ecological Zones while the annual maximum temperature
trend was positive in all except the midland agro-ecology. An upward trend in the annual total
rainfall was recorded in the midland while it was a non-significant downward trend in the other
agro-ecological Zones. Over 60 % of farmers perceived increasing temperature and decreasing
rainfall across the agro-ecological zones. Farmers' climate change perceptions are significantly
influenced by their access to climate and market information, agro-ecology, education,
agricultural input, and village market distance. The livelihood vulnerability analysis suggests
that lowland agro-ecology has relatively a higher exposure and sensitivity to climate shocks with
a comparatively limited adaptive capacity. On the contrary, the midland agro-ecology unveils
the lowest vulnerability with a relatively lower perceived exposure and a higher adaptive
capacity. The quantile regression shows that education, family size, food-secure months, use of
soil and water conservation, and role in the community are the major determinants of
household's level of resilience. Therefore, the study recommendsencouraging the practice of
drought-tolerant varieties, high yield crops, practice small-scale irrigation, and agroforestry
that fit the specific agro-ecology. It is also suggested to capitalize on resilience building
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schemes, such as the design of viable livelihood diversification strategies, promote agricultural
cooperatives, extensions services, inputand output markets, and reinforce the early warning
system and disaster risk management to reduce further vulnerability to climate impacts and
improve their livelihood resilience capacities.
Keywords: Agro-ecology, climate extremes, livelihood vulnerability, livelihood resilience,
perception, shocks, Wolaita Zone.
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Keywords
Agro-ecology, climate extremes, livelihood vulnerability, livelihood resilience, perception, shocks, Wolaita Zone.