Distribution of Selected Species of Dry Afromontane Forest In Relation to Climate Change in Ethiopia
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Date
2021-09-08
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
DAF encompasses nearly 50% of the Ethiopian forest resources with high biodiversity values. Dry Afromontane Forest (DAF) is under serious threats from deforestation, harvest of wood products, fire, encroaching agriculture, over grazing and climate changes related factors. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of key selected DAF species in relation to climate change. We used modern MaxEnt species distribution software to assess the current distribution of these two species (Celtis Africana, and Juniperus procera) and to predict their future distribution under different climate change scenario. We gathered species occurrence data from the Ethiopian National Herbarium (ETH) for the selected species, Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Google earth for herbarium collections that lack geographical location data. Moreover, bioclimatic variable data were collected from the website http://www.worldclim.org. We used MaxEnt model to predict current and future distributions of the species and to identify the most important factor(s) that determine the distribution of the species. Our results indicate a future highly suitable habitat of Celtis africana shift from central and south western areas of DAF to small parts of central region. Moreover, a highly suitable habitat of juniperus procera shift can occur from northern, central and mostly around eastern parts of DAF. This shift in distribution is primarily a factor of climate change. This study highlights the urgent need of species based conservation measures to avert the loss of species and avoid its cascading effects on biodiversity and sustainable human development.
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Celtis Africana, Juniperus Procera, Dry Afromontane Forest, Species Distribution, Climate Change