The Vulnerability of Livelihood to Climate Variability over the Jema Watershed, the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, North-Western Ethiopia
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Date
2016-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
Standardizing and integrating biophysical and socioeconomic components of livelihood is one of the challenges in vulnerability to climate variability studies. This study investigated the spatial variability in the level of livelihood vulnerability to climate variability from the point of view of three interdependent factors: exposure to climate variability, agroecosystem sensitivity to climate variability, and adaptive capacity. The study was conducted in the four agroecological zones of Jema Watershed, Lake Tana Sub-Basin, Ethiopia. Climate data (rainfall and temperature) were extracted from satellite based reconstructed meteorological observation, and subjected to geospatial analysis using ArcGIS. Focus group discussion was employed to generate data on farmers’ perception of climate variability and change. The agroecosystem sensitivity data (soil texture, terrain, land capability class, and land use land cover type, crop and livestock diversity) were collected from field survey and satellite imagery that were subjected to geospatial statistical analysis. The soil sample was collected from farm plots using hand-auger and core-sampler. Land use-land cover was analyzed employing a supervised classification method. Land capability class was evaluated using USDA’s land capability classification guideline as a reference. The socioeconomic data were collected from household farmers using structured questionnaire and then analyzed using ANOVA statistics. In all cases, proportionate stratified sampling technique was used. Ultimately, the summary of these results were analyzed by using IPCC’s Livelihood Vulnerability Index. Findings indicated that the inter-annual variability of monthly total rainfall decreased towards west of the Sub-Alphine agroecological zone of the watershed though the difference was not statistically significant. The variability of the duration and on-set/off-set of rainy season were higher in the eastern part. In the downstream, Moist Cool agroecological zone, the texture of soil was found to be clayey, and crop and livestock diversity was observed. The size of the cultivable land decreases towards the upstream. The aggregate standardized values of exposure to climate variability, adaptive capacity and agroecosystem sensitivity to climate variability was in the ranges of 0.408 to 0.525, 0.233 to 0.277 and 0.381 to 0.460, respectively, whereas the aggregate standardized value of livelihood vulnerability ranged from 0.052 to 0.126. To conclude, the upstream experienced larger values of exposure to climate variability and agroecosystem sensitivity to climate variability, whereas the downstream was found to have higher adaptive capacity; and the degree of vulnerability decreased towards the downstream. Except adaptive capacity, this spatial variation in vulnerability and its factors among the agroecological zones were explained by a spatial linear trend. Yet, in all cases, the groups’ mean difference was not statistically significant. More annual crop cultivation can be enhanced in the downstream, whereas more perennial crop cultivation, livestock rearing, and forestry in the upstream. Off-farm and nonfarm adaptation strategies should be enhanced particularly in the upstream. Meanwhile, maladaptation practices like encroachment into steep slopes and changing potential cropland into plantation land should be controlled by enhancing bylaws and that could foster the enforcement of scientific land use.
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agroecological zones, livelihood vulnerability, exposure, sensitivity, adaptive capacity, land use planning