Logit Model for School and Work Trip Mode Choice On Railway Route Corridor
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Date
2015-06
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Addis Ababa University
Abstract
One of the important aspects of transport modeling is to assess and predict the travel
choice behavior. The travel choice behavior is also referred to as traveler mode choice,
which is the most frequently modeled travel decision. It involves a specific aspect of
human behavior dedicated to choice decisions. With a model, as simplified
representation of a part of reality provides a better understanding and interpreting of
these complex systems. assessing how the existing modes are chosen rather it also
helps to know ahead how the traveler reacts or how much of the traveler shifts from
which mode by what factor this will help the transport planner making an operation
plan for the newly introduced means of transport.
Therefore the study of the paper is mode choice behavior of employees and students
in a specific selected study area in Addis Ababa which is from Ayat to Megenagna
following the Light rail transit (LRT)system because the paper also assess the modal
shift from the existing modes to LRT.
A multinomial logit model (MNL) is widely used model in the discrete choice model and
it has many computational advantages. Therefore a MNL with statistical data
processing software SPSS 20 (Statistical analysis in social science) was used for
explaining travel patterns and mode choice of both employees and students in the
study area.
The development process of the multinomial logit model for work and school trips are
composed of three main phases of work: (1) to conduct an initial pilot survey in order
to determine the most relevant attributes to the travelers, (2) to conduct a combined
revealed preference and stated preference survey and (3) to test and estimate the
utility function specifications for the multinomial logit (MNL) models for work and school
trips and also(4) the study attempts to estimate the demand or the major factor of
modal shift to LRT for both school and work trips.
In order to determine the “best” model specification for the corridor, a series of
alternative specifications of the utility functions of the MNL models were explored and
tested. The final MNL models showed a satisfactory goodness of fit.
Finally it was identified that the significant factors for mode choice of employees were
travel time, travel cost, work type and income. For the case of students the significant
factors were found to be travel time, travel cost, service cost and gender. It was also
found that both workers and students who travel longer distance choose Higer and
Anbesa than taxi to decrease the transition time and energy wastage during
transferring from one taxi to another. The main modal shift to LRT is found that from
Anbesa, Higer followed by taxi the least interest is shown from private car users.
(Key words: LRT, MNL model, mode choice modeling, stated preference survey)
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Keywords
LRT; MNL model; mode choice modeling; stated preference survey