Logit Model for School and Work Trip Mode Choice On Railway Route Corridor

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Addis Ababa University


One of the important aspects of transport modeling is to assess and predict the travel choice behavior. The travel choice behavior is also referred to as traveler mode choice, which is the most frequently modeled travel decision. It involves a specific aspect of human behavior dedicated to choice decisions. With a model, as simplified representation of a part of reality provides a better understanding and interpreting of these complex systems. assessing how the existing modes are chosen rather it also helps to know ahead how the traveler reacts or how much of the traveler shifts from which mode by what factor this will help the transport planner making an operation plan for the newly introduced means of transport. Therefore the study of the paper is mode choice behavior of employees and students in a specific selected study area in Addis Ababa which is from Ayat to Megenagna following the Light rail transit (LRT)system because the paper also assess the modal shift from the existing modes to LRT. A multinomial logit model (MNL) is widely used model in the discrete choice model and it has many computational advantages. Therefore a MNL with statistical data processing software SPSS 20 (Statistical analysis in social science) was used for explaining travel patterns and mode choice of both employees and students in the study area. The development process of the multinomial logit model for work and school trips are composed of three main phases of work: (1) to conduct an initial pilot survey in order to determine the most relevant attributes to the travelers, (2) to conduct a combined revealed preference and stated preference survey and (3) to test and estimate the utility function specifications for the multinomial logit (MNL) models for work and school trips and also(4) the study attempts to estimate the demand or the major factor of modal shift to LRT for both school and work trips. In order to determine the “best” model specification for the corridor, a series of alternative specifications of the utility functions of the MNL models were explored and tested. The final MNL models showed a satisfactory goodness of fit. Finally it was identified that the significant factors for mode choice of employees were travel time, travel cost, work type and income. For the case of students the significant factors were found to be travel time, travel cost, service cost and gender. It was also found that both workers and students who travel longer distance choose Higer and Anbesa than taxi to decrease the transition time and energy wastage during transferring from one taxi to another. The main modal shift to LRT is found that from Anbesa, Higer followed by taxi the least interest is shown from private car users. (Key words: LRT, MNL model, mode choice modeling, stated preference survey)



LRT; MNL model; mode choice modeling; stated preference survey